Fleetwood Town 1-1 Charlton – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Fleetwood Town at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Fleetwood Town vs Charlton fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A League One encounter, Regular Season - 10 sees Charlton travel to Highbury Stadium to take on Fleetwood Town. The game is scheduled for Saturday 17 September 2022, 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all League One games this season, Fleetwood Town have gone 2W 5D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: D D D D W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Fleetwood Town, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Fleetwood Town's home record at Highbury Stadium: 1W 6D 3L from 10 League One appearances (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Charlton — All Games: 3W 4D 3L from 10 League One fixtures this season — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W D D L D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Charlton, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Charlton away from home this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Fleetwood Town 1.10 PPG, Charlton 1.30 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Fleetwood Town have won 0, Charlton 2, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 22 Jan 2022, ended 0–2 with Charlton winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Fleetwood Town trading profile (54 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
Charlton trading profile (54 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fleetwood Town 65% versus Charlton 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fleetwood Town 56% | Charlton 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fleetwood Town 1.14 xG and Charlton 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fleetwood Town attack 0.812 / defence 0.891 | Charlton attack 0.933 / defence 1.058. League average goals — home 1.326 / away 1.139. Data: 54 Fleetwood Town games / 54 Charlton games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fleetwood Town 39% | Draw 32% | Charlton 29%. Fair-value odds: Fleetwood Town 2.56 | Draw 3.12 | Charlton 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.09. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.09 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Fleetwood Town as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Fleetwood Town offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.09 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 35% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 43%. This conflicts with form data: Fleetwood Town 70% | Charlton 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fleetwood Town vs Charlton | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Highbury Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 17 Sep 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fleetwood Town 39% | Draw 32% | Charlton 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 43% | xG Fleetwood Town 1.14 / Charlton 0.95 • Poisson strength factors: Fleetwood Town attack 0.812 / def 0.891 | Charlton attack 0.933 / def 1.058 | league avg home 1.326 / away 1.139 • Poisson stance: Fleetwood Town (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.14
Fleetwood Town xG
Expected Goals
0.95
Charlton xG
43%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fleetwood Town vs Charlton kick off?
Fleetwood Town vs Charlton kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 17 September 2022 at Highbury Stadium.
What was the final score in Fleetwood Town vs Charlton?
Fleetwood Town 1 - 1 Charlton.
Where is Fleetwood Town vs Charlton being played?
The match is being played at Highbury Stadium.
What competition is Fleetwood Town vs Charlton part of?
Fleetwood Town vs Charlton is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Fleetwood Town vs Charlton?
Our statistical model gives Fleetwood Town a 39% chance of winning, Charlton a 29% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Fleetwood Town the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fleetwood Town vs Charlton?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Fleetwood Town and Charlton will score (BTTS).
Will Fleetwood Town vs Charlton have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fleetwood Town and Charlton?
Record (2 meetings): Fleetwood Town 0W | Draws 0 | Charlton 2W.
What form are Fleetwood Town and Charlton in?
Fleetwood Town (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-D-D-D-W. Charlton (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-D-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Fleetwood Town's attacking strength (0.81x league average) is weighed against Charlton's defensive record (1.06x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.14. The same calculation in reverse, Charlton's attack versus Fleetwood Town's defence, projects 0.95 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 54/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.1%), 1-0 (12.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fleetwood Town Win
39%
2.56
32%
3.14
29%
3.44
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
0 – 0
12.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.14
Fleetwood Town xG
Total xG
2.09
0.95
Charlton xG
2.56
39%
Home win
3.14
32%
Draw
3.44
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.35
57%
BTTS No
1.74
Clean Sheet
39%
2.58
32%
3.13
Win to Nil
15%
6.61
9%
10.75
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.4 | 11.7 | 5.6 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.1 | 13.4 | 6.3 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 7.6 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 2.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fleetwood Town vs Charlton?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Fleetwood Town and Charlton expected to score?
The model projects 1.14 expected goals for Fleetwood Town and 0.95 for Charlton, a combined total of 2.09.
How confident is the prediction model for Fleetwood Town vs Charlton?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Fleetwood Town come into this having played 54 games, going 10W 21D 23L for 0.94 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-D-D-W. The sample for Fleetwood Town is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Charlton sit at 1.28 PPG from 54 outings (19W 12D 23L), a run that reads W-D-D-L-D across their last five. The sample for Charlton is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Fleetwood Town on 0.94 PPG, Charlton on 1.28. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Fleetwood Town's home form reads 6W 11D 10L across 27 games on their own ground, a 1.07 PPG return.
Away from home, Charlton have taken 1.00 points per game from 27 outings (7W 6D 14L).
Goals in Recent Form
Fleetwood Town are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.65 conceded per game recently; Charlton are on 1.24 scored and 1.28 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Fleetwood Town have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games.
Last 54 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fleetwood Town
Blended
Charlton
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fleetwood Town and Charlton in coming into this match?
Fleetwood Town have gone 10W 21D 23L in their last 54 games (0.94 PPG), while Charlton have gone 19W 12D 23L in their last 54 (1.28 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fleetwood Town at home or Charlton away?
Fleetwood Town's home record (1.07 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fleetwood Town at home: 1.07 PPG; Charlton away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Fleetwood Town or Charlton been keeping clean sheets recently?
Fleetwood Town have kept a clean sheet in 19% of their recent games, Charlton in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. It has been a while since the last meeting — 16 March 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Fleetwood Town's record when hosting Charlton specifically: 0W 2D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Fleetwood Town
2
Draws
3
Charlton
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fleetwood Town and Charlton?
From 6 meetings on record, Fleetwood Town have won 1, Charlton have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Fleetwood Town and Charlton last play each other?
They last met on 16 March 2024, when Fleetwood Town 1-1 Charlton.
Who has won more matches between Fleetwood Town and Charlton?
Charlton have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Fleetwood Town are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Charlton are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fleetwood Town 63%, Charlton 63% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Fleetwood Town) and 52% (Charlton).
On the defensive side: Fleetwood Town have failed to score in 26% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fleetwood Town home games / Charlton away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fleetwood Town play Charlton?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 63% of Fleetwood Town's games and 63% of Charlton's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Fleetwood Town vs Charlton usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Fleetwood Town's recent games and 52% of Charlton's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Fleetwood Town and Charlton tend to score early?
Fleetwood Town have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Charlton in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Fleetwood Town and Charlton share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fleetwood Town and Charlton finished level at 1-1 at Highbury Stadium, Regular Season - 10, in the League One. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fleetwood Town 1.14 xG and Charlton 0.95 xG, a combined 2.09. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fleetwood Town attack 0.81 / defence 0.89 against Charlton attack 0.93 / defence 1.06, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fleetwood Town 39% | Draw 32% | Charlton 29%, with Fleetwood Town to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fleetwood Town 56%, Charlton 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fleetwood Town's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
Charlton's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Fleetwood Town 0.94 PPG, Charlton 1.28 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.