Exeter City 1-2 Charlton – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Charlton at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Exeter City vs Charlton fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Exeter City host Charlton at St James Park in League One, Regular Season - 30. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 4 February 2023 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Exeter City — All Games: 3W 4D 3L from 10 League One outings this season, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: W W D L W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
In front of their own supporters this season, Exeter City have posted 3W 4D 3L at St James Park — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Charlton stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 League One matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L W W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Charlton, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in League One this season, Charlton have posted 2W 4D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Exeter City at 1.30 PPG versus Charlton's 1.10. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Exeter City register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Charlton in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Exeter City, 1 for Charlton and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 6.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 11 Oct 2022, ended 2–4 with Charlton winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 6.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Exeter City in-play and half-time data (73 games, 35 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 51% of games (home games).
Charlton in-play and half-time data (73 games, 35 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 51% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Exeter City 52% versus Charlton 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Exeter City 45% | Charlton 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Exeter City 1.30 xG and Charlton 1.42 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Exeter City attack 0.866 / defence 1.176 | Charlton attack 1.077 / defence 1.142. League average goals — home 1.318 / away 1.119. Data: 28 Exeter City games / 73 Charlton games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Exeter City 34% | Draw 27% | Charlton 39%. Fair-value odds: Exeter City 2.94 | Draw 3.70 | Charlton 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.72. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.72 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Charlton as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Charlton offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.72 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Exeter City 60% | Charlton 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Exeter City vs Charlton | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: St James Park • Kick-off: Saturday 4 Feb 2023, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Exeter City 34% | Draw 27% | Charlton 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 56% | xG Exeter City 1.30 / Charlton 1.42 • Poisson strength factors: Exeter City attack 0.866 / def 1.176 | Charlton attack 1.077 / def 1.142 | league avg home 1.318 / away 1.119 • Poisson stance: Charlton (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.30
Exeter City xG
Expected Goals
1.42
Charlton xG
56%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Exeter City vs Charlton kick off?
Exeter City vs Charlton kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 4 February 2023 at St James Park.
What was the final score in Exeter City vs Charlton?
Exeter City 1 - 2 Charlton.
Where is Exeter City vs Charlton being played?
The match is being played at St James Park.
What competition is Exeter City vs Charlton part of?
Exeter City vs Charlton is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Exeter City vs Charlton?
Our statistical model gives Exeter City a 34% chance of winning, Charlton a 39% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Charlton the favourite.
Will both teams score in Exeter City vs Charlton?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Exeter City and Charlton will score (BTTS).
Will Exeter City vs Charlton have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Exeter City and Charlton?
Record (1 meetings): Exeter City 0W | Draws 0 | Charlton 1W.
What form are Exeter City and Charlton in?
Exeter City (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-D-L-W. Charlton (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Exeter City's attack rating (0.87) and Charlton's defence rating (1.14), the model arrives at 1.30 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Charlton's attack versus Exeter City's defence, projects 1.42 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 28/73 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.7%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.6%), 0-0 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Charlton Win
34%
2.94
27%
3.75
39%
2.54
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.3%
Away win
1 – 0
8.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.30
Exeter City xG
Total xG
2.72
1.42
Charlton xG
2.94
34%
Home win
3.75
27%
Draw
2.54
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.80
44%
BTTS No
2.25
Clean Sheet
24%
4.12
27%
3.68
Win to Nil
8%
12.11
11%
9.36
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 9.3 | 6.6 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.6 | 12.2 | 8.6 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 7.9 | 5.6 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 3.4 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Exeter City vs Charlton?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Exeter City and Charlton expected to score?
The model projects 1.30 expected goals for Exeter City and 1.42 for Charlton, a combined total of 2.72.
How confident is the prediction model for Exeter City vs Charlton?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Exeter City's recent record stands at 33W 22D 18L from 73 games, a 1.66 PPG return, with W-W-D-L-W in the last five.
Charlton, meanwhile, have gone 25W 18D 30L across 73 games — 1.27 PPG, with L-W-W-W-L in their last five. The sample for Charlton is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Exeter City on 1.66 PPG, Charlton on 1.27. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Exeter City have managed 19W 9D 7L from 35 games — 1.89 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Charlton's away record stands at 9W 9D 17L across 35 trips, a 1.03 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Exeter City come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Exeter City are averaging 1.45 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game recently; Charlton are on 1.32 scored and 1.33 conceded.
Defensively: Exeter City have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 73 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Exeter City
Current Season
Charlton
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Exeter City and Charlton in coming into this match?
Exeter City have gone 33W 22D 18L in their last 73 games (1.66 PPG), while Charlton have gone 25W 18D 30L in their last 73 (1.27 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Exeter City at home or Charlton away?
Exeter City's home record (1.89 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Exeter City at home: 1.89 PPG; Charlton away: 1.03 PPG.
Have Exeter City or Charlton been keeping clean sheets recently?
Exeter City have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Charlton in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. It has been a while since the last meeting — 22 February 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 3 Oct 2023, when Charlton won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Exeter City's record when hosting Charlton specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Exeter City
1
Draws
4
Charlton
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Exeter City and Charlton?
From 6 meetings on record, Exeter City have won 1, Charlton have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Exeter City and Charlton last play each other?
They last met on 22 February 2025, when Charlton 3-0 Exeter City.
Who has won more matches between Exeter City and Charlton?
Charlton have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Exeter City see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Charlton are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Exeter City 54%, Charlton 63% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 51% (Exeter City) and 51% (Charlton).
On the defensive side: Exeter City keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Exeter City have failed to score in 26% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Exeter City home games / Charlton away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Exeter City play Charlton?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of Exeter City's games and 63% of Charlton's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Exeter City vs Charlton usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 51% of Exeter City's recent games and 51% of Charlton's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Exeter City and Charlton tend to score early?
Exeter City have had a goal before half-time in 57% of their recent matches, Charlton in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Charlton edge out Exeter City 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Charlton beat Exeter City 1-2 at St James Park, Regular Season - 30, in the League One. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Exeter City 1.30 xG and Charlton 1.42 xG, a combined 2.72. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Exeter City attack 0.87 / defence 1.18 against Charlton attack 1.08 / defence 1.14, drawn from 28/73 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Exeter City 34% | Draw 27% | Charlton 39%, with Charlton to win its most likely call at 39%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Exeter City 45%, Charlton 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Exeter City's trading profile (73 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Charlton's trading profile (73 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Exeter City 1.66 PPG, Charlton 1.27 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Charlton win broke the near-deadlock. Exeter City (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.03 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Charlton (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.06 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.