Exeter City 1-0 Burton Albion – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Exeter City at 35%, yet other data sources diverge — this Exeter City vs Burton Albion fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Exeter City and Burton Albion meet at St James Park in League One, Regular Season - 39. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 16 March 2024 at 15:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Exeter City have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 League One outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: L D L D W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at St James Park, Exeter City have gone 3W 4D 3L this season (10 games, 1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Burton Albion (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 League One outings this term — 1.10 points per game. Last five: L L D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
When travelling in League One this season, Burton Albion have posted 2W 3D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.40 vs 1.10 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Exeter City lead 1W to 2W over the last 3 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.3 per game from 3 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 2 Sep 2023, ended 1–0 with Exeter City winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.3 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Exeter City — key trading statistics (83 games, 42 at home): they score before half-time in 52% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
Burton Albion — key trading statistics (83 games, 42 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Exeter City 43% versus Burton Albion 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Exeter City 47% | Burton Albion 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Exeter City 0.94 xG and Burton Albion 0.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Exeter City attack 0.709 / defence 0.943 | Burton Albion attack 0.764 / defence 0.995. League average goals — home 1.335 / away 1.226. Exeter City's attack strength of 0.709 is below the league average — the 0.94 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 84 Exeter City games / 83 Burton Albion games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Exeter City 35% | Draw 33% | Burton Albion 32%. Fair-value odds: Exeter City 2.86 | Draw 3.03 | Burton Albion 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 28% | BTTS probability 36% | Total xG 1.82. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 72% probability — total xG of 1.82 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 36% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Exeter City are the pick at 35% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Exeter City if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 1.82 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 28% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 1.3 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 36% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Exeter City 40% | Burton Albion 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Exeter City vs Burton Albion | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 39 | Venue: St James Park • Kick-off: Saturday 16 Mar 2024, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Exeter City 35% | Draw 33% | Burton Albion 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 28% | BTTS 36% | xG Exeter City 0.94 / Burton Albion 0.88 • Poisson strength factors: Exeter City attack 0.709 / def 0.943 | Burton Albion attack 0.764 / def 0.995 | league avg home 1.335 / away 1.226 • Poisson stance: Exeter City (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.94
Exeter City xG
Expected Goals
0.88
Burton Albion xG
36%
BTTS
55%
Over 1.5
28%
Over 2.5
11%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Exeter City vs Burton Albion kick off?
Exeter City vs Burton Albion kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 16 March 2024 at St James Park.
What was the final score in Exeter City vs Burton Albion?
Exeter City 1 - 0 Burton Albion.
Where is Exeter City vs Burton Albion being played?
The match is being played at St James Park.
What competition is Exeter City vs Burton Albion part of?
Exeter City vs Burton Albion is a Regular Season - 39 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Exeter City vs Burton Albion?
Our statistical model gives Exeter City a 35% chance of winning, Burton Albion a 32% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Exeter City the favourite.
Will both teams score in Exeter City vs Burton Albion?
Our model estimates a 36% probability that both Exeter City and Burton Albion will score (BTTS).
Will Exeter City vs Burton Albion have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 28%.
What is the head-to-head record between Exeter City and Burton Albion?
Record (3 meetings): Exeter City 1W | Draws 0 | Burton Albion 2W.
What form are Exeter City and Burton Albion in?
Exeter City (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-L-D-W. Burton Albion (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Exeter City's attacking strength (0.71x league average) is weighed against Burton Albion's defensive record (0.99x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.94. Flip it around — Burton Albion's attack (0.76x) against Exeter City's defence (0.94x) — and the away total comes out at 0.88.
These ratings are built from 84/83 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 17.9%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.2%), 1-0 (13.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Exeter City Win
35%
2.84
33%
3.04
32%
3.13
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
16.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
15.2%
Home win
0 – 1
14.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.94
Exeter City xG
Total xG
1.82
0.88
Burton Albion xG
2.84
35%
Home win
3.04
33%
Draw
3.13
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
54%
Over 1.5
1.85
46%
Under 1.5
2.17
28%
Over 2.5
3.57
72%
Under 2.5
1.39
11%
Over 3.5
9.09
89%
Under 3.5
1.12
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
36%
BTTS Yes
2.79
64%
BTTS No
1.56
Clean Sheet
41%
2.42
39%
2.56
Win to Nil
15%
6.88
12%
8.01
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16.1 | 14.2 | 6.3 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.2 | 13.4 | 5.9 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 6.3 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.2 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Exeter City vs Burton Albion?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.9%.
How many goals are Exeter City and Burton Albion expected to score?
The model projects 0.94 expected goals for Exeter City and 0.88 for Burton Albion, a combined total of 1.82.
How confident is the prediction model for Exeter City vs Burton Albion?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Exeter City's recent record stands at 27W 18D 38L from 83 games, a 1.19 PPG return, with L-D-L-D-W in the last five.
Burton Albion, meanwhile, have gone 25W 20D 38L across 83 games — 1.14 PPG, with L-L-D-L-L in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.19 PPG for Exeter City against 1.14 for Burton Albion. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Exeter City have managed 15W 12D 15L from 42 games — 1.36 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Burton Albion's away record stands at 10W 9D 23L across 42 trips, a 0.93 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Exeter City come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Exeter City are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; Burton Albion are on 1.06 scored and 1.54 conceded.
Last 83 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Exeter City
Current Season
Burton Albion
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Exeter City and Burton Albion in coming into this match?
Exeter City have gone 27W 18D 38L in their last 83 games (1.19 PPG), while Burton Albion have gone 25W 20D 38L in their last 83 (1.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Exeter City at home or Burton Albion away?
Exeter City's home record (1.36 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Exeter City at home: 1.36 PPG; Burton Albion away: 0.93 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. They last met on 25 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
The last 3 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Exeter City have gone 1W 2D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Burton Albion — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Exeter City
3
Draws
2
Burton Albion
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Exeter City and Burton Albion?
From 8 meetings on record, Exeter City have won 3, Burton Albion have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Exeter City and Burton Albion last play each other?
They last met on 25 April 2026, when Burton Albion 1-1 Exeter City.
Who has won more matches between Exeter City and Burton Albion?
Exeter City have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Exeter City see a goal before the break in 52% of their matches.
Burton Albion are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Exeter City 45%, Burton Albion 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Exeter City) and 55% (Burton Albion).
On the defensive side: Exeter City have failed to score in 40% of games; Burton Albion in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Exeter City home games / Burton Albion away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Exeter City play Burton Albion?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 45% of Exeter City's recent matches and 50% of Burton Albion's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Exeter City vs Burton Albion usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Exeter City's recent games and 55% of Burton Albion's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Exeter City and Burton Albion tend to score early?
Exeter City have had a goal before half-time in 52% of their recent matches, Burton Albion in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Exeter City edge out Burton Albion 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Exeter City beat Burton Albion 1-0 at St James Park, Regular Season - 39, in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Exeter City 0.94 xG and Burton Albion 0.88 xG, a combined 1.82. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Burton Albion landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Exeter City attack 0.71 / defence 0.94 against Burton Albion attack 0.76 / defence 0.99, drawn from 84/83 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Exeter City 35% | Draw 33% | Burton Albion 32%, with Exeter City to win its most likely call at 35%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 28%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 55% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Exeter City 47%, Burton Albion 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Exeter City's trading profile (83 games, 42 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not.
Burton Albion's trading profile (83 games, 42 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Exeter City 1.19 PPG, Burton Albion 1.14 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Exeter City win broke the near-deadlock. Exeter City (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.10 average — tighter than their form line. Burton Albion (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.02 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.