Doncaster 1-0 Shrewsbury – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Doncaster at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Doncaster vs Shrewsbury fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Doncaster and Shrewsbury meet at Eco-Power Stadium in League One, Regular Season - 22. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 11 December 2021 at 15:00 UTC.
Form
Doncaster (all games): 1W 3D 6L across 10 League One fixtures this term — 0.60 PPG. Last five: D D L L L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Doncaster, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Doncaster's form when playing at home: 3W 3D 3L across 9 games at Eco-Power Stadium this term (1.33 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.11 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 56% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.33 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — Doncaster are significantly better at Eco-Power Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Shrewsbury have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 League One outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: D L D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Shrewsbury, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Shrewsbury's away record: 0W 2D 8L from 10 road trips in League One this season (0.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.20 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Shrewsbury arrive in superior form — a 0.50 PPG advantage (1.10 vs 0.60) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Trading
Doncaster half-time and goal-timing data (20 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 55% of games.
Shrewsbury half-time and goal-timing data (20 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Doncaster 40% versus Shrewsbury 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Doncaster 45% | Shrewsbury 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Doncaster 1.22 xG and Shrewsbury 0.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Doncaster attack 0.781 / defence 1.031 | Shrewsbury attack 0.601 / defence 1.333. League average goals — home 1.176 / away 1.311. Doncaster's attack strength of 0.781 is below the league average — the 1.22 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Shrewsbury bring a strong defensive rating of 1.333 — this is suppressing Doncaster's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 20 Doncaster games / 20 Shrewsbury games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Doncaster 45% | Draw 31% | Shrewsbury 24%. Fair-value odds: Doncaster 2.22 | Draw 3.23 | Shrewsbury 4.17. Doncaster hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.04. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.04 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Doncaster at 45% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Shrewsbury (1.10 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Doncaster if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.04 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 33% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 40% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Doncaster 56% | Shrewsbury 60%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Doncaster vs Shrewsbury | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Eco-Power Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 11 Dec 2021, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Doncaster 45% | Draw 31% | Shrewsbury 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 40% | xG Doncaster 1.22 / Shrewsbury 0.81 • Poisson strength factors: Doncaster attack 0.781 / def 1.031 | Shrewsbury attack 0.601 / def 1.333 | league avg home 1.176 / away 1.311 • Poisson stance: Doncaster (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.22
Doncaster xG
Expected Goals
0.81
Shrewsbury xG
40%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Doncaster vs Shrewsbury kick off?
Doncaster vs Shrewsbury kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 11 December 2021 at Eco-Power Stadium.
What was the final score in Doncaster vs Shrewsbury?
Doncaster 1 - 0 Shrewsbury.
Where is Doncaster vs Shrewsbury being played?
The match is being played at Eco-Power Stadium.
What competition is Doncaster vs Shrewsbury part of?
Doncaster vs Shrewsbury is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Doncaster vs Shrewsbury?
Our statistical model gives Doncaster a 45% chance of winning, Shrewsbury a 24% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Doncaster the favourite.
Will both teams score in Doncaster vs Shrewsbury?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Doncaster and Shrewsbury will score (BTTS).
Will Doncaster vs Shrewsbury have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between Doncaster and Shrewsbury?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Doncaster and Shrewsbury in?
Doncaster (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-D-L-L-L. Shrewsbury (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Doncaster's attack rating (0.78) and Shrewsbury's defence rating (1.33), the model arrives at 1.22 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Shrewsbury's attack (0.60x) against Doncaster's defence (1.03x) — and the away total comes out at 0.81.
These ratings are built from 20/20 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.7%. Close behind: 1-1 (14.7%), 1-0 (14.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Doncaster Win
45%
2.21
31%
3.26
24%
4.16
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.0%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.1%
Draw
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.22
Doncaster xG
Total xG
2.04
0.81
Shrewsbury xG
2.21
45%
Home win
3.26
31%
Draw
4.16
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.51
60%
BTTS No
1.66
Clean Sheet
44%
2.25
29%
3.40
Win to Nil
20%
4.97
7%
14.14
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.1 | 10.6 | 4.3 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 16.0 | 13.0 | 5.3 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 9.8 | 7.9 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.0 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Doncaster vs Shrewsbury?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Doncaster and Shrewsbury expected to score?
The model projects 1.22 expected goals for Doncaster and 0.81 for Shrewsbury, a combined total of 2.04.
How confident is the prediction model for Doncaster vs Shrewsbury?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Doncaster come into this having played 20 games, going 3W 4D 13L for 0.65 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-L-L-L. The sample for Doncaster is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Shrewsbury sit at 0.95 PPG from 20 outings (5W 4D 11L), a run that reads D-L-D-W-L across their last five. The sample for Shrewsbury is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.65 PPG for Doncaster against 0.95 for Shrewsbury. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Doncaster's home form reads 3W 3D 3L across 9 games on their own ground, a 1.33 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 0.65 PPG overall — Doncaster are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Shrewsbury have taken 0.22 points per game from 9 outings (0W 2D 7L). That's a step down from their 0.95 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Shrewsbury's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Doncaster come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Doncaster are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game recently; Shrewsbury are on 0.95 scored and 1.35 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Shrewsbury in 60%.
Last 20 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Doncaster
Blended
Shrewsbury
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Doncaster and Shrewsbury in coming into this match?
Doncaster have gone 3W 4D 13L in their last 20 games (0.65 PPG), while Shrewsbury have gone 5W 4D 11L in their last 20 (0.95 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Doncaster at home or Shrewsbury away?
Doncaster's home record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Doncaster at home: 1.33 PPG; Shrewsbury away: 0.22 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. It has been a while since the last meeting — 18 April 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Doncaster
1
Draws
0
Shrewsbury
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Doncaster and Shrewsbury?
From 2 meetings on record, Doncaster have won 1, Shrewsbury have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Doncaster and Shrewsbury last play each other?
They last met on 18 April 2022, when Shrewsbury 3-3 Doncaster.
Who has won more matches between Doncaster and Shrewsbury?
Doncaster have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Doncaster see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Shrewsbury are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Doncaster 56%, Shrewsbury 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Doncaster) and 44% (Shrewsbury).
On the defensive side: Doncaster keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Doncaster have failed to score in 33% of games; Shrewsbury in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Doncaster home games / Shrewsbury away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Doncaster play Shrewsbury?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Doncaster's games and 67% of Shrewsbury's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Doncaster vs Shrewsbury usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Doncaster's recent games and 44% of Shrewsbury's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Doncaster and Shrewsbury tend to score early?
Doncaster have had a goal before half-time in 56% of their recent matches, Shrewsbury in 89% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Doncaster edge out Shrewsbury 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Doncaster beat Shrewsbury 1-0 at Eco-Power Stadium, Regular Season - 22, in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Doncaster 1.22 xG and Shrewsbury 0.81 xG, a combined 2.04. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Shrewsbury landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Doncaster attack 0.78 / defence 1.03 against Shrewsbury attack 0.60 / defence 1.33, drawn from 20/20 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Doncaster 45% | Draw 31% | Shrewsbury 24%, with Doncaster to win its most likely call at 45%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 61% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Doncaster 45%, Shrewsbury 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Doncaster's trading profile (20 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not.
Shrewsbury's trading profile (20 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Doncaster 0.65 PPG, Shrewsbury 0.95 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Doncaster win broke the near-deadlock. Doncaster (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.11 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.