Derby 0-0 Sheffield Wednesday – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sheffield Wednesday at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Derby vs Sheffield Wednesday fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Derby host Sheffield Wednesday at Pride Park Stadium in League One, Regular Season - 20. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 3 December 2022 at 12:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Derby — All Games: 5W 3D 2L from 10 League One outings this season, averaging 1.80 points per game. Last five: D W D W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Derby, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Derby at Pride Park Stadium this season: 5W 1D 4L from 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all League One games this season, Sheffield Wednesday have recorded 7W 2D 1L from 10 outings — 2.30 PPG. Last five: D D W W W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 0.70. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Sheffield Wednesday, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sheffield Wednesday's away record: 6W 1D 3L from 10 road trips in League One this season (1.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Derby 1.80 PPG, Sheffield Wednesday 2.30 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Trading Patterns
Derby in-play and half-time data (64 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Sheffield Wednesday in-play and half-time data (64 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Derby 48% versus Sheffield Wednesday 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Derby 41% | Sheffield Wednesday 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Derby 0.99 xG and Sheffield Wednesday 1.39 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Derby attack 1.072 / defence 1.091 | Sheffield Wednesday attack 1.031 / defence 0.731. League average goals — home 1.259 / away 1.234. Sheffield Wednesday's defence strength of 0.731 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 18 Derby games / 65 Sheffield Wednesday games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Derby 27% | Draw 27% | Sheffield Wednesday 46%. Fair-value odds: Derby 3.70 | Draw 3.70 | Sheffield Wednesday 2.17. Sheffield Wednesday hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.38. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.38 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sheffield Wednesday at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sheffield Wednesday offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.38 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 42% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 47%. Form rates corroborate: Derby 70% | Sheffield Wednesday 20% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Derby vs Sheffield Wednesday | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Pride Park Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 3 Dec 2022, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Derby 27% | Draw 27% | Sheffield Wednesday 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 47% | xG Derby 0.99 / Sheffield Wednesday 1.39 • Poisson strength factors: Derby attack 1.072 / def 1.091 | Sheffield Wednesday attack 1.031 / def 0.731 | league avg home 1.259 / away 1.234 • Poisson stance: Sheffield Wednesday (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.99
Derby xG
Expected Goals
1.39
Sheffield Wednesday xG
47%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Derby vs Sheffield Wednesday kick off?
Derby vs Sheffield Wednesday kicked off at 12:30 on Saturday 3 December 2022 at Pride Park Stadium.
What was the final score in Derby vs Sheffield Wednesday?
Derby 0 - 0 Sheffield Wednesday.
Where is Derby vs Sheffield Wednesday being played?
The match is being played at Pride Park Stadium.
What competition is Derby vs Sheffield Wednesday part of?
Derby vs Sheffield Wednesday is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Derby vs Sheffield Wednesday?
Our statistical model gives Derby a 27% chance of winning, Sheffield Wednesday a 46% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Sheffield Wednesday the favourite.
Will both teams score in Derby vs Sheffield Wednesday?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Derby and Sheffield Wednesday will score (BTTS).
Will Derby vs Sheffield Wednesday have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Derby and Sheffield Wednesday?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Derby and Sheffield Wednesday in?
Derby (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-W-D-W-D. Sheffield Wednesday (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Derby's attack rating (1.07) and Sheffield Wednesday's defence rating (0.73), the model arrives at 0.99 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Sheffield Wednesday's attack versus Derby's defence, projects 1.39 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 18/65 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.4%. Close behind: 0-1 (11.3%), 0-0 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sheffield Wednesday Win
27%
3.74
27%
3.69
46%
2.17
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
12.9%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
0 – 0
9.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.99
Derby xG
Total xG
2.38
1.39
Sheffield Wednesday xG
3.74
27%
Home win
3.69
27%
Draw
2.17
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.12
53%
BTTS No
1.89
Clean Sheet
25%
4.01
37%
2.68
Win to Nil
7%
15.01
17%
5.81
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.3 | 12.9 | 9.0 | 4.2 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.2 | 12.7 | 8.8 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 6.3 | 4.4 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.1 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Derby vs Sheffield Wednesday?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Derby and Sheffield Wednesday expected to score?
The model projects 0.99 expected goals for Derby and 1.39 for Sheffield Wednesday, a combined total of 2.38.
How confident is the prediction model for Derby vs Sheffield Wednesday?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 64 outings, Derby have picked up 1.31 PPG on a 22W 18D 24L record — D-W-D-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for Derby is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sheffield Wednesday's form line: 34W 17D 13L from 64 games, 1.86 PPG, last five D-D-W-W-W. The sample for Sheffield Wednesday is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Sheffield Wednesday are the form team by 0.55 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Derby.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Derby have posted 1.81 PPG from 31 outings (16W 8D 7L). That's noticeably better than their 1.31 PPG overall — Derby are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Sheffield Wednesday have gone 13W 8D 10L from 31 away games — 1.52 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Derby are averaging 1.06 goals scored and 1.08 conceded per game recently; Sheffield Wednesday are on 1.73 scored and 1.06 conceded.
Defensively: Sheffield Wednesday in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 64 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Derby
Blended
Sheffield Wednesday
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Derby and Sheffield Wednesday in coming into this match?
Derby have gone 22W 18D 24L in their last 64 games (1.31 PPG), while Sheffield Wednesday have gone 34W 17D 13L in their last 64 (1.86 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Derby at home or Sheffield Wednesday away?
Derby's home record (1.81 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Derby at home: 1.81 PPG; Sheffield Wednesday away: 1.52 PPG.
Have Derby or Sheffield Wednesday been keeping clean sheets recently?
Derby have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Sheffield Wednesday in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Derby and Sheffield Wednesday runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2022. The pairing has crossed competitions too — League One, Championship all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 7 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Derby go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 15 Dec 2025, when Derby won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Derby's record when hosting Sheffield Wednesday specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Derby
1
Draws
3
Sheffield Wednesday
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Derby and Sheffield Wednesday?
From 6 meetings on record, Derby have won 2, Sheffield Wednesday have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Derby and Sheffield Wednesday last play each other?
They last met on 7 March 2026, when Derby 2-1 Sheffield Wednesday.
Who has won more matches between Derby and Sheffield Wednesday?
Sheffield Wednesday have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Derby are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Sheffield Wednesday are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Derby 61%, Sheffield Wednesday 45% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Derby) and 42% (Sheffield Wednesday).
On the defensive side: Derby keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Sheffield Wednesday in 32%; Sheffield Wednesday in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Derby home games / Sheffield Wednesday away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Derby play Sheffield Wednesday?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 61% of Derby's recent matches and 45% of Sheffield Wednesday's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Derby vs Sheffield Wednesday usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Derby's recent games and 42% of Sheffield Wednesday's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Derby and Sheffield Wednesday tend to score early?
Derby have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Sheffield Wednesday in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Derby's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Pride Park Stadium, Regular Season - 20, as Derby and Sheffield Wednesday drew 0-0 in the League One. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Derby 0.99 xG and Sheffield Wednesday 1.39 xG, a combined 2.38. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Derby fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Sheffield Wednesday landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Derby attack 1.07 / defence 1.09 against Sheffield Wednesday attack 1.03 / defence 0.73, drawn from 18/65 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Derby 27% | Draw 27% | Sheffield Wednesday 46%, with Sheffield Wednesday to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 69% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Derby 41%, Sheffield Wednesday 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Derby's trading profile (64 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Sheffield Wednesday's trading profile (64 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Sheffield Wednesday arrived the stronger side — 1.86 PPG against 1.31. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Derby (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.42 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.03 average — tighter than their form line. Sheffield Wednesday (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.29 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.23 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.