Derby 3-0 Port Vale – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Derby at 64% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Derby vs Port Vale encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Derby and Port Vale meet at Pride Park Stadium in League One (matchday 36). This fixture gets under way on Saturday 2 March 2024 at 15:00 UK time.
Form
Derby (all games): 5W 2D 3L across their last 10 — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D W W L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
In front of their own supporters, Derby have posted 6W 2D 2L from their last 10 home games — 2.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Port Vale's record over their last 10 games: 0W 3D 7L (0.30 PPG). Last five: D L L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly.
Port Vale's away record over their last 10 away games: 1W 3D 6L (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Form favours the hosts. Derby's 1.70 PPG return is 1.40 points per game ahead of Port Vale's 0.30 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated the 3 H2H matches in our data: 2 wins for Derby, 1 for Port Vale and 0 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 28 Nov 2023, ended Derby 1–0 Port Vale — a Derby win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Derby — key trading statistics (last 79 games, 39 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 36%; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).
Port Vale — key trading statistics (last 79 games, 39 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; BTTS occurs in 51% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Derby 52% versus Port Vale 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Derby 51% | Port Vale 51%). Note also that Port Vale surrender HT leads in 50% of cases while Derby recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 36% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Derby 2.04 xG and Port Vale 0.90 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Derby attack 1.153 / defence 0.975 | Port Vale attack 0.765 / defence 1.334. League average goals — home 1.328 / away 1.200. Port Vale's defence rating of 1.334 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Derby's projected output up. Port Vale's attack rating of 0.765 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.90. Data: built from Derby's last 81 games and Port Vale's last 79.
Result probabilities: Derby 64% | Draw 20% | Port Vale 16%. Fair-value odds: Derby 1.56 | Draw 4.89 | Port Vale 6.41. The model has a clear lean to Derby (64%) — a 44pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS Yes probability 51% | Total xG 2.94. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.94 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 51% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Derby are the pick at 64% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.94 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 56% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Derby's last 10 home games and Port Vale's last 10 away games) averaging 2.7 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Derby 80% (last 10 home games) | Port Vale 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Derby vs Port Vale | Competition: League One, matchday 36 | Venue: Pride Park Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 2 March 2024 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Derby 64% | Draw 20% | Port Vale 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% (Under 44%) | BTTS Yes 51% (No 49%) | xG Derby 2.04 / Port Vale 0.90 • Poisson strength factors: Derby attack 1.153 / def 0.975 | Port Vale attack 0.765 / def 1.334 | league avg home 1.328 / away 1.200 • Poisson stance: Derby (64%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.04
Derby xG
Expected Goals
0.90
Port Vale xG
51%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Derby vs Port Vale FAQs
What time does Derby vs Port Vale kick off?
Derby vs Port Vale kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Saturday 2 March 2024 at Pride Park Stadium.
What was the final score in Derby vs Port Vale?
Derby 3 - 0 Port Vale.
Where is Derby vs Port Vale being played?
The match is being played at Pride Park Stadium.
What competition is Derby vs Port Vale part of?
Derby vs Port Vale is a League One fixture (matchday 36) (England).
Who is favourite to win Derby vs Port Vale?
Our statistical model gives Derby a 64% chance of winning, Port Vale a 16% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Derby the favourite.
Will both teams score in Derby vs Port Vale?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Derby and Port Vale will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Derby vs Port Vale have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Derby's attack at 1.15x the league average against Port Vale's defence at 1.33x — combine the two and it projects 2.04 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Port Vale's attack (0.77x) against Derby's defence (0.97x) — and the away total comes out at 0.90.
These ratings are built from Derby's last 81 games and Port Vale's last 79 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 11.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (11.0%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Derby Win
64%
1.56
20%
4.89
16%
6.41
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
11.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
10.8%
Home win
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.04
Derby xG
Total xG
2.94
0.90
Port Vale xG
1.56
64%
Home win
4.89
20%
Draw
6.41
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.94
49%
BTTS No
2.06
Clean Sheet
41%
2.45
13%
7.70
Win to Nil
26%
3.83
2%
49.32
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 4.8 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 10.8 | 9.7 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 11.1 | 9.9 | 4.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.5 | 6.7 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.8 | 3.4 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Derby vs Port Vale Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Derby vs Port Vale?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.1%.
How many goals are Derby and Port Vale expected to score?
The model projects 2.04 expected goals for Derby and 0.90 for Port Vale, a combined total of 2.94.
How confident is the prediction model for Derby vs Port Vale?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 64%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Derby's recent record stands at 40W 19D 20L from 79 games, a 1.76 PPG return, with D-W-W-L-L in the last five.
Port Vale, meanwhile, have gone 21W 18D 40L across 79 games — 1.03 PPG, with D-L-L-L-D in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Derby by 0.73 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Port Vale heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Derby have managed 21W 10D 8L from their last 39 home games — 1.87 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Port Vale's away record stands at 8W 10D 21L across their last 39 away games, a 0.87 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Derby come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Derby are averaging 1.59 goals scored and 0.99 conceded per game recently; Port Vale are on 1.04 scored and 1.58 conceded.
Defensively: Derby have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 79 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Derby
Current Season
Port Vale
Current Season
Derby (Home) vs Port Vale (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Derby
Current Season
Port Vale
Current Season
❓ Derby vs Port Vale Form FAQs
What form are Derby and Port Vale in coming into this match?
Derby have gone 40W 19D 20L in their last 79 games (1.76 PPG), while Port Vale have gone 21W 18D 40L in their last 79 (1.03 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Derby at home or Port Vale away?
Derby's home record (1.87 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Derby at home: 1.87 PPG; Port Vale away: 0.87 PPG.
Have Derby or Port Vale been keeping clean sheets recently?
Derby have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Port Vale in 24%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 4 H2H matches between Derby and Port Vale, the earliest from October 2022. All of them came in League One. The most recent in our data was on 2 March 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Derby have won each of the latest 3 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Derby won Derby 3-0 Port Vale on 2 Mar 2024, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Derby have gone 1W 0D 1L from the 2 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Port Vale — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Derby
0
Draws
1
Port Vale
Recent Meetings
❓ Derby vs Port Vale H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Derby and Port Vale?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Derby have won 3, Port Vale have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Derby and Port Vale last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 2 March 2024: Derby 3-0 Port Vale.
Who has won more matches between Derby and Port Vale?
Derby have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Derby are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 28% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 43% of those situations.
Port Vale are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 24% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Derby 56%, Port Vale 51% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Derby) and 56% (Port Vale). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 26% and 28% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Derby keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Port Vale in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Derby home games / Port Vale away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Derby vs Port Vale Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Derby and Port Vale matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Derby's recent matches and 51% of Port Vale's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Derby and Port Vale matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 54% of Derby's matches and 56% of Port Vale's.
Do Derby and Port Vale matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 69% of Derby's recent matches and 64% of Port Vale's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Derby run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Port Vale.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Derby beat Port Vale 3-0 at Pride Park Stadium, Regular Season - 36, in the League One. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Derby 2.04 xG and Port Vale 0.90 xG, a combined 2.94. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Derby beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Port Vale landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Derby attack 1.15 / defence 0.97 against Port Vale attack 0.77 / defence 1.33, drawn from 81/79 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Derby 64% | Draw 20% | Port Vale 16%, with Derby to win its most likely call at 64%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Derby 51%, Port Vale 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Derby's trading profile (79 games, 39 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.
Port Vale's trading profile (79 games, 39 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Derby arrived the stronger side — 1.76 PPG against 1.03. Form held, and they took the win. Derby (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.74 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.95 average — tighter than their form line. Port Vale (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.97 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.82 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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