Derby 1-1 Lincoln – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Derby at 61% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Derby vs Lincoln encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Lincoln make the trip to Pride Park Stadium to face Derby in League One, Regular Season - 32. The match kicks off on Tuesday 14 February 2023 at 19:45 UTC.
Form
Derby (all games): 7W 2D 1L across 10 League One fixtures this term — 2.30 PPG. Last five: W W W W L. They are averaging 2.40 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
Derby's form when playing at home: 7W 2D 1L across 10 games at Pride Park Stadium this term (2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Pride Park Stadium.
Lincoln's overall League One record this term: 2W 5D 3L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: L D D W W. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Lincoln away from home this season: 4W 1D 5L from 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form ledger tips toward Derby. A 1.20 PPG lead over Lincoln (2.30 vs 1.10) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Derby lead 0W to 1W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 13 Sep 2022, ended 0–2 with Lincoln winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Derby half-time and goal-timing data (74 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 66% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Lincoln half-time and goal-timing data (74 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Derby 47% versus Lincoln 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Derby 45% | Lincoln 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Derby 1.84 xG and Lincoln 0.83 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Derby attack 1.403 / defence 0.802 | Lincoln attack 0.886 / defence 1.014. League average goals — home 1.293 / away 1.165. Derby carry an above-average attack strength of 1.403 — their λ of 1.84 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 29 Derby games / 74 Lincoln games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Derby 61% | Draw 23% | Lincoln 16%. Fair-value odds: Derby 1.64 | Draw 4.35 | Lincoln 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Derby (61%) — a 45pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.67. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.67 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Derby are the pick at 61% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.67 combined xG gives a 50% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 48%. Form rates corroborate: Derby 40% | Lincoln 20% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Derby vs Lincoln | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: Pride Park Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 14 Feb 2023, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Derby 61% | Draw 23% | Lincoln 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 48% | xG Derby 1.84 / Lincoln 0.83 • Poisson strength factors: Derby attack 1.403 / def 0.802 | Lincoln attack 0.886 / def 1.014 | league avg home 1.293 / away 1.165 • Poisson stance: Derby (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.84
Derby xG
Expected Goals
0.83
Lincoln xG
48%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Derby vs Lincoln kick off?
Derby vs Lincoln kicked off at 19:45 on Tuesday 14 February 2023 at Pride Park Stadium.
What was the final score in Derby vs Lincoln?
Derby 1 - 1 Lincoln.
Where is Derby vs Lincoln being played?
The match is being played at Pride Park Stadium.
What competition is Derby vs Lincoln part of?
Derby vs Lincoln is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Derby vs Lincoln?
Our statistical model gives Derby a 61% chance of winning, Lincoln a 16% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Derby the favourite.
Will both teams score in Derby vs Lincoln?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Derby and Lincoln will score (BTTS).
Will Derby vs Lincoln have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Derby and Lincoln?
Record (1 meetings): Derby 0W | Draws 0 | Lincoln 1W.
What form are Derby and Lincoln in?
Derby (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-W-W-L. Lincoln (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-D-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Derby's attacking strength (1.40x league average) is weighed against Lincoln's defensive record (1.01x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.84. Flip it around — Lincoln's attack (0.89x) against Derby's defence (0.80x) — and the away total comes out at 0.83.
These ratings are built from 29/74 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.0%. Close behind: 2-0 (11.7%), 1-0 (11.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Derby Win
61%
1.65
23%
4.28
16%
6.30
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.8%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.7%
Home win
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.84
Derby xG
Total xG
2.67
0.83
Lincoln xG
1.65
61%
Home win
4.28
23%
Draw
6.30
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.09
52%
BTTS No
1.92
Clean Sheet
44%
2.29
16%
6.29
Win to Nil
27%
3.77
3%
39.64
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 5.8 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 12.8 | 10.6 | 4.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.7 | 9.7 | 4.0 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 7.2 | 6.0 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.3 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Derby vs Lincoln?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.0%.
How many goals are Derby and Lincoln expected to score?
The model projects 1.84 expected goals for Derby and 0.83 for Lincoln, a combined total of 2.67.
How confident is the prediction model for Derby vs Lincoln?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Derby's recent record stands at 29W 20D 25L from 74 games, a 1.45 PPG return, with W-W-W-W-L in the last five.
Lincoln, meanwhile, have gone 22W 23D 29L across 74 games — 1.20 PPG, with L-D-D-W-W in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.45 PPG for Derby against 1.20 for Lincoln. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Derby have managed 21W 8D 7L from 36 games — 1.97 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.45 PPG overall — Derby are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Lincoln's away record stands at 12W 6D 18L across 36 trips, a 1.17 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Derby come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Derby are averaging 1.23 goals scored and 1.03 conceded per game recently; Lincoln are on 1.12 scored and 1.26 conceded.
Defensively: Derby have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 74 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Derby
Current Season
Lincoln
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Derby and Lincoln in coming into this match?
Derby have gone 29W 20D 25L in their last 74 games (1.45 PPG), while Lincoln have gone 22W 23D 29L in their last 74 (1.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Derby at home or Lincoln away?
Derby's home record (1.97 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Derby at home: 1.97 PPG; Lincoln away: 1.17 PPG.
Have Derby or Lincoln been keeping clean sheets recently?
Derby have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Lincoln in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. It has been a while since the last meeting — 20 January 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Derby have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Lincoln — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Derby
2
Draws
1
Lincoln
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Derby and Lincoln?
From 4 meetings on record, Derby have won 1, Lincoln have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Derby and Lincoln last play each other?
They last met on 20 January 2024, when Lincoln 0-0 Derby.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Derby are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Lincoln are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Derby 53%, Lincoln 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Derby) and 53% (Lincoln).
On the defensive side: Derby keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Lincoln in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Derby home games / Lincoln away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Derby play Lincoln?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Derby's recent matches and 50% of Lincoln's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Derby vs Lincoln usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Derby's recent games and 53% of Lincoln's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Derby and Lincoln tend to score early?
Derby have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Lincoln in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Derby and Lincoln share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Pride Park Stadium, Regular Season - 32, as Derby and Lincoln drew 1-1 in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Derby 1.84 xG and Lincoln 0.83 xG, a combined 2.67. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Derby fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Derby attack 1.40 / defence 0.80 against Lincoln attack 0.89 / defence 1.01, drawn from 29/74 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Derby 61% | Draw 23% | Lincoln 16%, with Derby to win its most likely call at 61%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Derby 45%, Lincoln 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Derby's trading profile (74 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Lincoln's trading profile (74 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Derby 1.45 PPG, Lincoln 1.20 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.