Cheltenham 0-2 Plymouth – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Plymouth at 53%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cheltenham vs Plymouth fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Cheltenham host Plymouth at Jonny-Rocks Stadium in League One, Regular Season - 24. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 26 December 2021 at 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all League One games this season, Cheltenham have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: W D L D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 2.00 conceded. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Cheltenham, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cheltenham at Jonny-Rocks Stadium this season: 5W 3D 2L from 10 home games — 1.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Cheltenham are significantly better at Jonny-Rocks Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Plymouth stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 League One matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L L D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Plymouth, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Plymouth have gone 4W 4D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.60 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.30 PPG (Cheltenham) versus 1.40 (Plymouth). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Cheltenham register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Plymouth in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Trading Patterns
Cheltenham in-play and half-time data (22 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
Plymouth in-play and half-time data (22 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Cheltenham 68% and Plymouth 64% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cheltenham 59% | Plymouth 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cheltenham 1.21 xG and Plymouth 1.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cheltenham attack 0.941 / defence 1.442 | Plymouth attack 1.024 / defence 1.102. League average goals — home 1.164 / away 1.280. Data: 22 Cheltenham games / 23 Plymouth games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cheltenham 24% | Draw 23% | Plymouth 53%. Fair-value odds: Cheltenham 4.17 | Draw 4.35 | Plymouth 1.89. Plymouth hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.10. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.10 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.21 / 1.89) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Plymouth are the pick at 53% — moderate model lean. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Plymouth offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 3.10 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 60% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 60%. Form rates corroborate: Cheltenham 60% | Plymouth 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cheltenham vs Plymouth | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Jonny-Rocks Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 26 Dec 2021, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cheltenham 24% | Draw 23% | Plymouth 53% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 60% | xG Cheltenham 1.21 / Plymouth 1.89 • Poisson strength factors: Cheltenham attack 0.941 / def 1.442 | Plymouth attack 1.024 / def 1.102 | league avg home 1.164 / away 1.280 • Poisson stance: Plymouth (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.21
Cheltenham xG
Expected Goals
1.89
Plymouth xG
60%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cheltenham vs Plymouth kick off?
Cheltenham vs Plymouth kicked off at 15:00 on Sunday 26 December 2021 at Jonny-Rocks Stadium.
What was the final score in Cheltenham vs Plymouth?
Cheltenham 0 - 2 Plymouth.
Where is Cheltenham vs Plymouth being played?
The match is being played at Jonny-Rocks Stadium.
What competition is Cheltenham vs Plymouth part of?
Cheltenham vs Plymouth is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Cheltenham vs Plymouth?
Our statistical model gives Cheltenham a 24% chance of winning, Plymouth a 53% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Plymouth the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cheltenham vs Plymouth?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Cheltenham and Plymouth will score (BTTS).
Will Cheltenham vs Plymouth have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cheltenham and Plymouth?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Cheltenham and Plymouth in?
Cheltenham (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-D-L-D-L. Plymouth (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Cheltenham's attack at 0.94x the league average against Plymouth's defence at 1.10x — combine the two and it projects 1.21 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Plymouth's attack versus Cheltenham's defence, projects 1.89 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 22/23 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.7%), 0-2 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Plymouth Win
24%
4.20
23%
4.28
53%
1.89
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.7%
Away win
0 – 1
8.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.21
Cheltenham xG
Total xG
3.10
1.89
Plymouth xG
4.20
24%
Home win
4.28
23%
Draw
1.89
53%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.67
40%
BTTS No
2.50
Clean Sheet
15%
6.61
30%
3.34
Win to Nil
4%
27.78
16%
6.33
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.5 | 8.5 | 8.1 | 5.1 | 2.4 | 0.9 |
| 1 | 5.5 | 10.3 | 9.7 | 6.1 | 2.9 | 1.1 |
| 2 | 3.3 | 6.2 | 5.9 | 3.7 | 1.7 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 2.5 | 2.4 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cheltenham vs Plymouth?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.7%.
How many goals are Cheltenham and Plymouth expected to score?
The model projects 1.21 expected goals for Cheltenham and 1.89 for Plymouth, a combined total of 3.10.
How confident is the prediction model for Cheltenham vs Plymouth?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 22 outings, Cheltenham have picked up 1.27 PPG on a 7W 7D 8L record — W-D-L-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Cheltenham is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Plymouth's form line: 11W 7D 4L from 22 games, 1.82 PPG, last five L-L-D-L-W. The sample for Plymouth is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Plymouth are the form team by 0.55 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Cheltenham.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Cheltenham have posted 1.80 PPG from 10 outings (5W 3D 2L). That's noticeably better than their 1.27 PPG overall — Cheltenham are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Plymouth have gone 4W 4D 2L from 10 away games — 1.60 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Cheltenham are averaging 1.32 goals scored and 1.82 conceded per game recently; Plymouth are on 1.64 scored and 1.05 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Cheltenham have seen both teams score in 68% of their recent games; Plymouth in 64%.
Last 22 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cheltenham
Blended
Plymouth
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cheltenham and Plymouth in coming into this match?
Cheltenham have gone 7W 7D 8L in their last 22 games (1.27 PPG), while Plymouth have gone 11W 7D 4L in their last 22 (1.82 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cheltenham at home or Plymouth away?
Cheltenham's home record (1.80 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cheltenham at home: 1.80 PPG; Plymouth away: 1.60 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Cheltenham and Plymouth runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. It has been a while since the last meeting — 21 January 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Plymouth go into this on the back of 4 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Cheltenham's record when hosting Plymouth specifically: 0W 0D 2L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Cheltenham
0
Draws
4
Plymouth
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cheltenham and Plymouth?
From 4 meetings on record, Cheltenham have won 0, Plymouth have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Cheltenham and Plymouth last play each other?
They last met on 21 January 2023, when Plymouth 4-2 Cheltenham.
Who has won more matches between Cheltenham and Plymouth?
Plymouth have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Cheltenham are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 30% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Plymouth are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Cheltenham at 60%, Plymouth at 70%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for Cheltenham and 60% for Plymouth. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cheltenham home games / Plymouth away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cheltenham play Plymouth?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Cheltenham's games and 70% of Plymouth's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Cheltenham vs Plymouth usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Cheltenham's matches and 60% of Plymouth's.
Do Cheltenham and Plymouth tend to score early?
Cheltenham have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Plymouth in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Plymouth cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Cheltenham.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Plymouth beat Cheltenham 0-2 at Jonny-Rocks Stadium, Regular Season - 24, in the League One. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cheltenham 1.21 xG and Plymouth 1.89 xG, a combined 3.10. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Cheltenham fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cheltenham attack 0.94 / defence 1.44 against Plymouth attack 1.02 / defence 1.10, drawn from 22/23 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cheltenham 24% | Draw 23% | Plymouth 53%, with Plymouth to win its most likely call at 53%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cheltenham 59%, Plymouth 59%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 66%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cheltenham's trading profile (22 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did not.
Plymouth's trading profile (22 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Plymouth arrived the stronger side — 1.82 PPG against 1.27. Form held, and they took the win. Cheltenham (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.40 scoring average — below par going forward. Plymouth (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.20 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.