Cheltenham 0-1 Carlisle – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Cheltenham at 48% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Cheltenham face Carlisle.

✍️ Match Preview

Analysis & Preview

Carlisle travel to Completely-Suzuki Stadium to take on Cheltenham in League One (matchday 29). The game is scheduled for Tuesday 9 April 2024 at 20:45 UK time.

Recent Form

Across their last 10 games, Cheltenham have gone 2W 3D 5L — a 0.90 PPG return. Last five: L D W L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

In front of their own supporters, Cheltenham have posted 4W 2D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Carlisle — last 10 games: 2W 1D 7L — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L D W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

On the road, Carlisle have gone 2W 0D 8L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Cheltenham 0.90 PPG, Carlisle 0.70 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.

The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 70% of Cheltenham's games and 60% of Carlisle's (from Cheltenham's last 10 home games and Carlisle's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.

H2H Record

There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 1 H2H match, Cheltenham have won 1, Carlisle 0, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.

Goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game across the 1 H2H match we hold, giving Under 2.5 a clear head-to-head base rate. The most recent of those, on 23 Dec 2023, ended Cheltenham 1–0 Carlisle — a Cheltenham win.

With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.

In-Play Data

Cheltenham trading profile (last 86 games, 42 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 60% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games); they fail to score in 41% of games.

Carlisle trading profile (last 86 games, 42 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 30 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 27%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cheltenham 41% versus Carlisle 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cheltenham 44% | Carlisle 45%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Cheltenham 1.68 xG and Carlisle 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cheltenham attack 0.957 / defence 1.223 | Carlisle attack 0.846 / defence 1.338. League average goals — home 1.312 / away 1.173. Carlisle's defence rating of 1.338 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Cheltenham's projected output up. Cheltenham's defence rating of 1.223 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Carlisle's projected output up. Data: built from Cheltenham's last 86 games and Carlisle's last 42.

Result probabilities: Cheltenham 48% | Draw 24% | Carlisle 28%. Fair-value odds: Cheltenham 2.08 | Draw 4.12 | Carlisle 3.63. Cheltenham hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS Yes probability 57% | Total xG 2.89. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.89 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 57% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Cheltenham as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Cheltenham offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 2.89 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 55% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Cheltenham's last 10 home games and Carlisle's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Cheltenham 70% (last 10 home games) | Carlisle 60% (last 10 away games).

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights