Charlton 1-0 Derby – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Charlton at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this Charlton vs Derby fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
The Valley plays host to Charlton versus Derby in League One, Regular Season - 2. Kick-off: Saturday 6 August 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Charlton have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 League One outings this season: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: L W W L D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Charlton have played only a handful of League One games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at The Valley, Charlton have gone 5W 1D 4L this season (10 games, 1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at The Valley. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Derby (all games): 4W 1D 5L across 10 League One outings this term — 1.30 points per game. Last five: L L W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Derby have played only a handful of League One games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Derby away from home this season: 1W 0D 9L from 10 away games — 0.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.30 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.70 PPG for Charlton against 1.30 for Derby. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Trading
Charlton half-time and goal-timing data (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games).
Derby half-time and goal-timing data (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 48% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Charlton 49% versus Derby 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Charlton 47% | Derby 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Charlton 1.62 xG and Derby 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Charlton attack 1.006 / defence 1.023 | Derby attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.397 / away 1.169. Data: 47 Charlton games / 1 Derby games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Charlton 50% | Draw 27% | Derby 23%. Fair-value odds: Charlton 2.00 | Draw 3.70 | Derby 4.35. Charlton hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.63. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.63 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Charlton are the pick at 50% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Charlton if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.63 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 49% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. This conflicts with form data: Charlton 30% | Derby 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Charlton vs Derby | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: The Valley • Kick-off: Saturday 6 Aug 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Charlton 50% | Draw 27% | Derby 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 52% | xG Charlton 1.62 / Derby 1.02 • Poisson strength factors: Charlton attack 1.006 / def 1.023 | Derby attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.397 / away 1.169 • Poisson stance: Charlton (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.62
Charlton xG
Expected Goals
1.02
Derby xG
52%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Charlton vs Derby kick off?
Charlton vs Derby kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 6 August 2022 at The Valley.
What was the final score in Charlton vs Derby?
Charlton 1 - 0 Derby.
Where is Charlton vs Derby being played?
The match is being played at The Valley.
What competition is Charlton vs Derby part of?
Charlton vs Derby is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Charlton vs Derby?
Our statistical model gives Charlton a 50% chance of winning, Derby a 23% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Charlton the favourite.
Will both teams score in Charlton vs Derby?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Charlton and Derby will score (BTTS).
Will Charlton vs Derby have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Charlton and Derby?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Charlton and Derby in?
Charlton (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-W-L-D. Derby (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Charlton's attack at 1.01x the league average against Derby's defence at 1.15x — combine the two and it projects 1.62 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Derby's attack (0.85x) against Charlton's defence (1.02x) — and the away total comes out at 1.02.
The sample (47/1 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (10.1%), 2-1 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Charlton Win
50%
1.99
27%
3.71
23%
4.39
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.6%
Home win
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.62
Charlton xG
Total xG
2.63
1.02
Derby xG
1.99
50%
Home win
3.71
27%
Draw
4.39
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.92
48%
BTTS No
2.09
Clean Sheet
36%
2.76
20%
5.03
Win to Nil
18%
5.50
5%
22.10
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.2 | 7.3 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.6 | 11.8 | 6.0 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.4 | 9.5 | 4.9 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.1 | 5.1 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Charlton vs Derby?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Charlton and Derby expected to score?
The model projects 1.62 expected goals for Charlton and 1.02 for Derby, a combined total of 2.63.
How confident is the prediction model for Charlton vs Derby?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 47 outings, Charlton have picked up 1.28 PPG on a 17W 9D 21L record — L-W-W-L-D across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Charlton, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Derby's form line: 15W 13D 19L from 47 games, 1.23 PPG, last five L-L-W-L-W. It's still early in the season for Derby, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.28 PPG for Charlton against 1.23 for Derby. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Charlton have posted 1.48 PPG from 23 outings (10W 4D 9L).
On the road, Derby have gone 3W 6D 14L from 23 away games — 0.65 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.23 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Derby's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Charlton come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Charlton are averaging 1.21 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game recently; Derby are on 0.98 scored and 1.13 conceded.
Last 47 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Charlton
Early Season
Derby
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Charlton and Derby in coming into this match?
Charlton have gone 17W 9D 21L in their last 47 games (1.28 PPG), while Derby have gone 15W 13D 19L in their last 47 (1.23 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Charlton at home or Derby away?
Charlton's home record (1.48 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Charlton at home: 1.48 PPG; Derby away: 0.65 PPG.
Have Charlton or Derby been keeping clean sheets recently?
Charlton have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Derby in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. The pairing has crossed competitions too — League One, Championship all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 20 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Charlton have gone 1W 0D 2L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Derby — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Charlton
1
Draws
3
Derby
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Charlton and Derby?
From 6 meetings on record, Charlton have won 2, Derby have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Charlton and Derby last play each other?
They last met on 20 January 2026, when Charlton 1-2 Derby.
Who has won more matches between Charlton and Derby?
Derby have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Charlton are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Derby see a goal before the break in 48% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Charlton 35%, Derby 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 39% (Charlton) and 35% (Derby).
On the defensive side: Charlton keep a clean sheet in 48% of their matches; Charlton have failed to score in 26% of games; Derby in 48%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Charlton home games / Derby away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Charlton play Derby?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 35% of Charlton's recent matches and 44% of Derby's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Charlton vs Derby usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 39% of Charlton's recent games and 35% of Derby's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Charlton and Derby tend to score early?
Charlton have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Derby in 48% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Charlton edge out Derby 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Charlton beat Derby 1-0 at The Valley, Regular Season - 2, in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Charlton 1.62 xG and Derby 1.02 xG, a combined 2.63. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Derby landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Charlton attack 1.01 / defence 1.02 against Derby attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 47/1 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Charlton 50% | Draw 27% | Derby 23%, with Charlton to win its most likely call at 50%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 75% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Charlton 47%, Derby 38%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Charlton's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and duly kept one.
Derby's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Charlton 1.28 PPG, Derby 1.23 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Charlton win broke the near-deadlock. Charlton (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.22 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.