Charlton 1-2 Bristol Rovers – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Charlton at 45% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Charlton vs Bristol Rovers encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A League One encounter, Regular Season - 3 sees Bristol Rovers travel to The Valley to take on Charlton. The game is scheduled for Tuesday 15 August 2023, 19:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all League One games this season, Charlton have gone 5W 1D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.60 PPG return. Last five: L W D W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Charlton have played only a handful of League One games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at The Valley, Charlton have gone 4W 2D 4L this season (10 games, 1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Bristol Rovers — All Games: 1W 4D 5L from 10 League One fixtures this season — 0.70 PPG. Last five: D L L D D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Bristol Rovers have played only a handful of League One games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Bristol Rovers's form when playing away from home: 3W 2D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Charlton are in the better shape of the two on current League One data — 0.90 PPG ahead (1.60 vs 0.70). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Charlton have won 0, Bristol Rovers 2, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 7 Apr 2023, ended 0–1 with Bristol Rovers winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Charlton trading profile (48 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Bristol Rovers trading profile (48 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Charlton 58% versus Bristol Rovers 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Charlton 48% | Bristol Rovers 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Charlton 1.43 xG and Bristol Rovers 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Charlton attack 1.115 / defence 1.006 | Bristol Rovers attack 1.000 / defence 1.023. League average goals — home 1.251 / away 1.073. Data: 48 Charlton games / 48 Bristol Rovers games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Charlton 45% | Draw 26% | Bristol Rovers 29%. Fair-value odds: Charlton 2.22 | Draw 3.85 | Bristol Rovers 3.45. Charlton hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.51. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.51 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Charlton are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Charlton offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.51 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 46% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Charlton 70% | Bristol Rovers 50% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (48 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Charlton vs Bristol Rovers | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: The Valley • Kick-off: Tuesday 15 Aug 2023, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Charlton 45% | Draw 26% | Bristol Rovers 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 50% | xG Charlton 1.43 / Bristol Rovers 1.08 • Poisson strength factors: Charlton attack 1.115 / def 1.006 | Bristol Rovers attack 1.000 / def 1.023 | league avg home 1.251 / away 1.073 • Poisson stance: Charlton (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.43
Charlton xG
Expected Goals
1.08
Bristol Rovers xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Charlton vs Bristol Rovers kick off?
Charlton vs Bristol Rovers kicked off at 19:45 on Tuesday 15 August 2023 at The Valley.
What was the final score in Charlton vs Bristol Rovers?
Charlton 1 - 2 Bristol Rovers.
Where is Charlton vs Bristol Rovers being played?
The match is being played at The Valley.
What competition is Charlton vs Bristol Rovers part of?
Charlton vs Bristol Rovers is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Charlton vs Bristol Rovers?
Our statistical model gives Charlton a 45% chance of winning, Bristol Rovers a 29% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Charlton the favourite.
Will both teams score in Charlton vs Bristol Rovers?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Charlton and Bristol Rovers will score (BTTS).
Will Charlton vs Bristol Rovers have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Charlton and Bristol Rovers?
Record (2 meetings): Charlton 0W | Draws 0 | Bristol Rovers 2W.
What form are Charlton and Bristol Rovers in?
Charlton (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-D-W-L. Bristol Rovers (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Charlton's attacking strength (1.11x league average) is weighed against Bristol Rovers's defensive record (1.02x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.43. The same calculation in reverse, Bristol Rovers's attack versus Charlton's defence, projects 1.08 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (48/48 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.2%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.0%), 0-0 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Charlton Win
45%
2.22
26%
3.78
29%
3.50
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.6%
Home win
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.43
Charlton xG
Total xG
2.51
1.08
Bristol Rovers xG
2.22
45%
Home win
3.78
26%
Draw
3.50
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.99
50%
BTTS No
2.01
Clean Sheet
34%
2.94
24%
4.17
Win to Nil
15%
6.55
7%
14.59
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.2 | 8.8 | 4.8 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.6 | 12.6 | 6.8 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 9.0 | 4.8 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 4.3 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Charlton vs Bristol Rovers?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Charlton and Bristol Rovers expected to score?
The model projects 1.43 expected goals for Charlton and 1.08 for Bristol Rovers, a combined total of 2.51.
How confident is the prediction model for Charlton vs Bristol Rovers?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 48 outings, Charlton have picked up 1.35 PPG on a 17W 14D 17L record — L-W-D-W-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Charlton, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Bristol Rovers's form line: 14W 13D 21L from 48 games, 1.15 PPG, last five D-L-L-D-D. It's still early in the season for Bristol Rovers, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Charlton on 1.35 PPG, Bristol Rovers on 1.15. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Charlton have posted 1.54 PPG from 24 outings (10W 7D 7L).
On the road, Bristol Rovers have gone 8W 5D 11L from 24 away games — 1.21 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Charlton are averaging 1.48 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game recently; Bristol Rovers are on 1.25 scored and 1.56 conceded.
Last 48 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Charlton
Early Season
Bristol Rovers
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Charlton and Bristol Rovers in coming into this match?
Charlton have gone 17W 14D 17L in their last 48 games (1.35 PPG), while Bristol Rovers have gone 14W 13D 21L in their last 48 (1.15 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Charlton at home or Bristol Rovers away?
Charlton's home record (1.54 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Charlton at home: 1.54 PPG; Bristol Rovers away: 1.21 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. It has been a while since the last meeting — 28 January 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Charlton's record when hosting Bristol Rovers specifically: 1W 0D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Charlton
0
Draws
5
Bristol Rovers
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Charlton and Bristol Rovers?
From 6 meetings on record, Charlton have won 1, Bristol Rovers have won 5, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Charlton and Bristol Rovers last play each other?
They last met on 28 January 2025, when Charlton 2-0 Bristol Rovers.
Who has won more matches between Charlton and Bristol Rovers?
Bristol Rovers have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Charlton are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Bristol Rovers are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Charlton 67%, Bristol Rovers 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Charlton) and 58% (Bristol Rovers).
On the defensive side: Bristol Rovers in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Charlton home games / Bristol Rovers away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Charlton play Bristol Rovers?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Charlton's games and 58% of Bristol Rovers's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Charlton vs Bristol Rovers usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Charlton's recent games and 58% of Bristol Rovers's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Charlton and Bristol Rovers tend to score early?
Charlton have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Bristol Rovers in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Bristol Rovers defy the odds to beat Charlton 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bristol Rovers beat Charlton 1-2 at The Valley, Regular Season - 3, in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Charlton 1.43 xG and Bristol Rovers 1.08 xG, a combined 2.51. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Bristol Rovers outscored their 1.08 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Charlton attack 1.11 / defence 1.01 against Bristol Rovers attack 1.00 / defence 1.02, drawn from 48/48 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Charlton 45% | Draw 26% | Bristol Rovers 29%, with Charlton to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual Bristol Rovers win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Charlton 48%, Bristol Rovers 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Charlton's trading profile (48 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Bristol Rovers's trading profile (48 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Charlton 1.35 PPG, Bristol Rovers 1.15 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bristol Rovers win broke the near-deadlock. Charlton (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.88 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.