Cardiff 2-1 Stevenage – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Cardiff at 41% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Cardiff vs Stevenage encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Cardiff host Stevenage at Cardiff City Stadium in League One, Regular Season - 23. Kick-off is scheduled for Monday 29 December 2025 at 19:45 UTC.
Form Guide
Cardiff — All Games: 7W 0D 3L from 10 League One outings this season, averaging 2.10 points per game. Last five: W W W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Cardiff, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Cardiff have posted 8W 0D 2L at Cardiff City Stadium — 2.40 PPG. They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across all League One games this season, Stevenage have recorded 2W 5D 3L from 10 outings — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D L W D D. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Stevenage, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Stevenage's away record: 4W 3D 3L from 10 road trips in League One this season (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game.
Cardiff carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.00 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.10 vs 1.10. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Cardiff have won 1, Stevenage 0, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The last 1 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 9 Dec 2025, ended 1–0 with Cardiff winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Cardiff in-play tendencies (66 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).
Stevenage in-play tendencies (66 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 48% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 27% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cardiff 54% versus Stevenage 39%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cardiff 48% | Stevenage 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cardiff 1.42 xG and Stevenage 1.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cardiff attack 1.416 / defence 1.180 | Stevenage attack 0.929 / defence 0.745. League average goals — home 1.342 / away 1.149. Cardiff carry an above-average attack strength of 1.416 — their λ of 1.42 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Stevenage's defence strength of 0.745 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 21 Cardiff games / 66 Stevenage games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cardiff 41% | Draw 26% | Stevenage 33%. Fair-value odds: Cardiff 2.44 | Draw 3.85 | Stevenage 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.68. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.68 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Cardiff as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Cardiff offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.68 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 50% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates are neutral: Cardiff 50% | Stevenage 40%.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cardiff vs Stevenage | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Cardiff City Stadium • Kick-off: Monday 29 Dec 2025, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cardiff 41% | Draw 26% | Stevenage 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 54% | xG Cardiff 1.42 / Stevenage 1.26 • Poisson strength factors: Cardiff attack 1.416 / def 1.180 | Stevenage attack 0.929 / def 0.745 | league avg home 1.342 / away 1.149 • Poisson stance: Cardiff (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.42
Cardiff xG
Expected Goals
1.26
Stevenage xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cardiff vs Stevenage kick off?
Cardiff vs Stevenage kicked off at 19:45 on Monday 29 December 2025 at Cardiff City Stadium.
What was the final score in Cardiff vs Stevenage?
Cardiff 2 - 1 Stevenage.
Where is Cardiff vs Stevenage being played?
The match is being played at Cardiff City Stadium.
What competition is Cardiff vs Stevenage part of?
Cardiff vs Stevenage is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Cardiff vs Stevenage?
Our statistical model gives Cardiff a 41% chance of winning, Stevenage a 33% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Cardiff the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cardiff vs Stevenage?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Cardiff and Stevenage will score (BTTS).
Will Cardiff vs Stevenage have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cardiff and Stevenage?
Record (1 meetings): Cardiff 1W | Draws 0 | Stevenage 0W.
What form are Cardiff and Stevenage in?
Cardiff (all comps): 7W-0D-3L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-W-L-W. Stevenage (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-L-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Cardiff's attack rating (1.42) and Stevenage's defence rating (0.74), the model arrives at 1.42 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Stevenage's attack versus Cardiff's defence, projects 1.26 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 21/66 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.7%), 0-0 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cardiff Win
41%
2.46
26%
3.87
33%
2.99
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.7%
Home win
0 – 1
8.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.42
Cardiff xG
Total xG
2.68
1.26
Stevenage xG
2.46
41%
Home win
3.87
26%
Draw
2.99
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.84
46%
BTTS No
2.19
Clean Sheet
28%
3.53
24%
4.12
Win to Nil
12%
8.67
8%
12.31
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 8.7 | 5.5 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 12.3 | 7.7 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 8.7 | 5.5 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 4.1 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cardiff vs Stevenage?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Cardiff and Stevenage expected to score?
The model projects 1.42 expected goals for Cardiff and 1.26 for Stevenage, a combined total of 2.68.
How confident is the prediction model for Cardiff vs Stevenage?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Cardiff's recent record stands at 23W 19D 24L from 66 games, a 1.33 PPG return, with W-W-W-L-W in the last five. The sample for Cardiff is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Stevenage, meanwhile, have gone 25W 18D 23L across 66 games — 1.41 PPG, with D-L-W-D-D in their last five. The sample for Stevenage is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Cardiff on 1.33 PPG, Stevenage on 1.41. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Cardiff have managed 16W 6D 11L from 33 games — 1.64 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Stevenage's away record stands at 11W 10D 12L across 33 trips, a 1.30 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Cardiff are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.41 conceded per game recently; Stevenage are on 1.00 scored and 0.98 conceded.
Defensively: Stevenage in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 66 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cardiff
Blended
Stevenage
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cardiff and Stevenage in coming into this match?
Cardiff have gone 23W 19D 24L in their last 66 games (1.33 PPG), while Stevenage have gone 25W 18D 23L in their last 66 (1.41 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cardiff at home or Stevenage away?
Cardiff's home record (1.64 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cardiff at home: 1.64 PPG; Stevenage away: 1.30 PPG.
Have Cardiff or Stevenage been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cardiff have kept a clean sheet in 26% of their recent games, Stevenage in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Cardiff and Stevenage runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. They last met on 29 December 2025, roughly 8 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Cardiff
0
Draws
0
Stevenage
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cardiff and Stevenage?
From 2 meetings on record, Cardiff have won 2, Stevenage have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Cardiff and Stevenage last play each other?
They last met on 29 December 2025, when Cardiff 2-1 Stevenage.
Who has won more matches between Cardiff and Stevenage?
Cardiff have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Cardiff see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Stevenage see a goal before the break in 48% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cardiff 48%, Stevenage 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Cardiff) and 27% (Stevenage).
On the defensive side: Cardiff keep a clean sheet in 30% of their matches; Stevenage in 39%; Stevenage in 48%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cardiff home games / Stevenage away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cardiff play Stevenage?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Cardiff's recent matches and 33% of Stevenage's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cardiff vs Stevenage usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Cardiff's recent games and 27% of Stevenage's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Prediction vindicated as Cardiff edge out Stevenage 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cardiff beat Stevenage 2-1 at Cardiff City Stadium, Regular Season - 23, in the League One. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cardiff 1.42 xG and Stevenage 1.26 xG, a combined 2.68. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cardiff attack 1.42 / defence 1.18 against Stevenage attack 0.93 / defence 0.74, drawn from 21/66 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cardiff 41% | Draw 26% | Stevenage 33%, with Cardiff to win its most likely call at 41%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cardiff 48%, Stevenage 33%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cardiff's trading profile (66 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Stevenage's trading profile (66 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cardiff 1.33 PPG, Stevenage 1.41 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Cardiff win broke the near-deadlock. Stevenage (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.97 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.