Cambridge United 2-2 Wigan – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Wigan at 63% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Cambridge United vs Wigan encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a League One clash, Regular Season - 19 as Cambridge United welcome Wigan to Abbey Stadium. Kick-off is set for Tuesday 23 November 2021 at 19:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all League One games this season, Cambridge United have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: D W W L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Cambridge United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cambridge United at Abbey Stadium this season: 3W 4D 2L from 9 home games — 1.44 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 56% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Wigan — All Games: 7W 0D 3L from 10 League One fixtures this season — 2.10 PPG. Last five: L W L W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Wigan, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Wigan away from home this season: 6W 0D 1L from 7 away games — 2.57 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.57 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 away clean sheets from 7 games (57%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
Form points away from home here. Wigan's 2.10 PPG return is 1.10 points per game ahead of Cambridge United's 1.00 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Trading Patterns
Cambridge United in-play and half-time data (16 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
Wigan in-play and half-time data (16 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cambridge United 69% versus Wigan 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cambridge United 56% | Wigan 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cambridge United 0.95 xG and Wigan 2.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cambridge United attack 0.924 / defence 1.226 | Wigan attack 1.300 / defence 0.889. League average goals — home 1.154 / away 1.295. Wigan have an above-average attack strength of 1.300 — the away xG of 2.06 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 18 Cambridge United games / 16 Wigan games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cambridge United 16% | Draw 20% | Wigan 63%. Fair-value odds: Cambridge United 6.25 | Draw 5.00 | Wigan 1.59. The model has a clear lean to Wigan (63%) — a 47pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 3.01. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.01 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Wigan as the most likely outcome at 63% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.01 combined xG gives a 58% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Cambridge United 56% | Wigan 43%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cambridge United vs Wigan | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Abbey Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 23 Nov 2021, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cambridge United 16% | Draw 20% | Wigan 63% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 53% | xG Cambridge United 0.95 / Wigan 2.06 • Poisson strength factors: Cambridge United attack 0.924 / def 1.226 | Wigan attack 1.300 / def 0.889 | league avg home 1.154 / away 1.295 • Poisson stance: Wigan (63%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.95
Cambridge United xG
Expected Goals
2.06
Wigan xG
53%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cambridge United vs Wigan kick off?
Cambridge United vs Wigan kicked off at 19:45 on Tuesday 23 November 2021 at Abbey Stadium.
What was the final score in Cambridge United vs Wigan?
Cambridge United 2 - 2 Wigan.
Where is Cambridge United vs Wigan being played?
The match is being played at Abbey Stadium.
What competition is Cambridge United vs Wigan part of?
Cambridge United vs Wigan is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Cambridge United vs Wigan?
Our statistical model gives Cambridge United a 16% chance of winning, Wigan a 63% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Wigan the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cambridge United vs Wigan?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Cambridge United and Wigan will score (BTTS).
Will Cambridge United vs Wigan have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cambridge United and Wigan?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Cambridge United and Wigan in?
Cambridge United (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-W-W-L-L. Wigan (all comps): 7W-0D-3L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Cambridge United's attack rating (0.92) and Wigan's defence rating (0.89), the model arrives at 0.95 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Wigan's attack versus Cambridge United's defence, projects 2.06 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 18/16 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.9%. Close behind: 0-2 (10.5%), 1-2 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Wigan Win
16%
6.08
20%
4.90
63%
1.58
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 2
10.5%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 1
10.2%
Away win
1 – 2
9.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.95
Cambridge United xG
Total xG
3.01
2.06
Wigan xG
6.08
16%
Home win
4.90
20%
Draw
1.58
63%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.87
47%
BTTS No
2.15
Clean Sheet
13%
7.88
39%
2.58
Win to Nil
2%
47.92
24%
4.09
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 10.2 | 10.5 | 7.2 | 3.7 | 1.5 |
| 1 | 4.7 | 9.6 | 9.9 | 6.8 | 3.5 | 1.5 |
| 2 | 2.2 | 4.6 | 4.7 | 3.2 | 1.7 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 0.7 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cambridge United vs Wigan?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.9%.
How many goals are Cambridge United and Wigan expected to score?
The model projects 0.95 expected goals for Cambridge United and 2.06 for Wigan, a combined total of 3.01.
How confident is the prediction model for Cambridge United vs Wigan?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 63%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Cambridge United's recent record stands at 5W 6D 5L from 16 games, a 1.31 PPG return, with D-W-W-L-L in the last five. The sample for Cambridge United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Wigan, meanwhile, have gone 11W 1D 4L across 16 games — 2.12 PPG, with L-W-L-W-W in their last five. The sample for Wigan is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Wigan by 0.81 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Cambridge United heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Cambridge United have managed 2W 3D 2L from 7 games — 1.29 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Wigan's away record stands at 6W 0D 1L across 7 trips, a 2.57 PPG haul. That's actually stronger than their 2.12 PPG overall record — Wigan travel well.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Wigan come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Cambridge United are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game recently; Wigan are on 1.88 scored and 0.81 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Cambridge United have seen both teams score in 69% of their recent games.
Defensively: Wigan in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 16 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cambridge United
Blended
Wigan
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cambridge United and Wigan in coming into this match?
Cambridge United have gone 5W 6D 5L in their last 16 games (1.31 PPG), while Wigan have gone 11W 1D 4L in their last 16 (2.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cambridge United at home or Wigan away?
Wigan's away record (2.57 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cambridge United at home: 1.29 PPG; Wigan away: 2.57 PPG.
Have Cambridge United or Wigan been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cambridge United have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Wigan in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. It has been a while since the last meeting — 8 March 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Cambridge United's record when hosting Wigan specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Cambridge United
1
Draws
2
Wigan
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cambridge United and Wigan?
From 6 meetings on record, Cambridge United have won 3, Wigan have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Cambridge United and Wigan last play each other?
They last met on 8 March 2025, when Wigan 1-0 Cambridge United.
Who has won more matches between Cambridge United and Wigan?
Cambridge United have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Cambridge United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Wigan see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cambridge United 57%, Wigan 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Cambridge United) and 57% (Wigan).
On the defensive side: Wigan in 57%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cambridge United home games / Wigan away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cambridge United play Wigan?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 57% of Cambridge United's recent matches and 43% of Wigan's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cambridge United vs Wigan usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Cambridge United's recent games and 57% of Wigan's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cambridge United and Wigan tend to score early?
Cambridge United have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, Wigan in 57% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Cambridge United and Wigan share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cambridge United and Wigan finished level at 2-2 at Abbey Stadium, Regular Season - 19, in the League One. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cambridge United 0.95 xG and Wigan 2.06 xG, a combined 3.01. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Cambridge United beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cambridge United attack 0.92 / defence 1.23 against Wigan attack 1.30 / defence 0.89, drawn from 18/16 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cambridge United 16% | Draw 20% | Wigan 63%, with Wigan to win its most likely call at 63%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 36% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cambridge United 56%, Wigan 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cambridge United's trading profile (16 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did.
Wigan's trading profile (16 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Wigan arrived the stronger side — 2.12 PPG against 1.31. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Cambridge United (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.14 average — above their attacking norm. Wigan (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.71 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.