Cambridge United 1-2 Charlton – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Charlton at 42% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Cambridge United vs Charlton encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a League One clash, Regular Season - 37 as Cambridge United welcome Charlton to Abbey Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 18 March 2023 at 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all League One games this season, Cambridge United have gone 1W 3D 6L from 10 outings — a 0.60 PPG return. Last five: L L L D L. They are averaging 0.40 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Cambridge United's form when playing at home: 2W 4D 4L across 10 games at Abbey Stadium this term (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Charlton stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 League One matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L D L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
On the road, Charlton have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Charlton — 0.50 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.10 vs 0.60). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Cambridge United have won 0, Charlton 2, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 20 Aug 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Cambridge United in-play and half-time data (82 games, 41 at home): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Charlton in-play and half-time data (82 games, 41 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 49% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cambridge United 48% versus Charlton 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cambridge United 46% | Charlton 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cambridge United 0.87 xG and Charlton 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cambridge United attack 0.712 / defence 1.026 | Charlton attack 1.031 / defence 0.951. League average goals — home 1.284 / away 1.111. Cambridge United's attack strength of 0.712 is below the league average — the 0.87 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 82 Cambridge United games / 82 Charlton games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cambridge United 26% | Draw 31% | Charlton 42%. Fair-value odds: Cambridge United 3.85 | Draw 3.23 | Charlton 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.04. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.04 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Charlton at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Charlton offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.04 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 34% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 41%. Form rates are neutral: Cambridge United 50% | Charlton 50%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cambridge United vs Charlton | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 37 | Venue: Abbey Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 18 Mar 2023, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cambridge United 26% | Draw 31% | Charlton 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 41% | xG Cambridge United 0.87 / Charlton 1.18 • Poisson strength factors: Cambridge United attack 0.712 / def 1.026 | Charlton attack 1.031 / def 0.951 | league avg home 1.284 / away 1.111 • Poisson stance: Charlton (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.87
Cambridge United xG
Expected Goals
1.18
Charlton xG
41%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cambridge United vs Charlton kick off?
Cambridge United vs Charlton kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 18 March 2023 at Abbey Stadium.
What was the final score in Cambridge United vs Charlton?
Cambridge United 1 - 2 Charlton.
Where is Cambridge United vs Charlton being played?
The match is being played at Abbey Stadium.
What competition is Cambridge United vs Charlton part of?
Cambridge United vs Charlton is a Regular Season - 37 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Cambridge United vs Charlton?
Our statistical model gives Cambridge United a 26% chance of winning, Charlton a 42% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Charlton the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cambridge United vs Charlton?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Cambridge United and Charlton will score (BTTS).
Will Cambridge United vs Charlton have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cambridge United and Charlton?
Record (3 meetings): Cambridge United 0W | Draws 1 | Charlton 2W.
What form are Cambridge United and Charlton in?
Cambridge United (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.40 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-L-L-D-L. Charlton (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Cambridge United's attacking strength (0.71x league average) is weighed against Charlton's defensive record (0.95x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.87. The same calculation in reverse, Charlton's attack versus Cambridge United's defence, projects 1.18 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 82/82 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.7%), 0-1 (13.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Charlton Win
26%
3.78
31%
3.20
42%
2.37
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.2%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
0 – 0
12.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.87
Cambridge United xG
Total xG
2.04
1.18
Charlton xG
3.78
26%
Home win
3.20
31%
Draw
2.37
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.45
59%
BTTS No
1.69
Clean Sheet
31%
3.24
42%
2.39
Win to Nil
8%
12.22
18%
5.65
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.9 | 15.2 | 8.9 | 3.5 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.3 | 13.2 | 7.8 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 5.8 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cambridge United vs Charlton?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Cambridge United and Charlton expected to score?
The model projects 0.87 expected goals for Cambridge United and 1.18 for Charlton, a combined total of 2.04.
How confident is the prediction model for Cambridge United vs Charlton?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Cambridge United come into this having played 82 games, going 23W 19D 40L for 1.07 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-D-L.
On the other side, Charlton sit at 1.27 PPG from 82 outings (28W 20D 34L), a run that reads L-D-L-D-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Cambridge United on 1.07 PPG, Charlton on 1.27. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Cambridge United's home form reads 14W 12D 15L across 41 games on their own ground, a 1.32 PPG return.
Away from home, Charlton have taken 1.12 points per game from 41 outings (12W 10D 19L).
The Goals Picture
Cambridge United are averaging 1.01 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game recently; Charlton are on 1.28 scored and 1.30 conceded.
Last 82 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cambridge United
Current Season
Charlton
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cambridge United and Charlton in coming into this match?
Cambridge United have gone 23W 19D 40L in their last 82 games (1.07 PPG), while Charlton have gone 28W 20D 34L in their last 82 (1.27 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cambridge United at home or Charlton away?
Cambridge United's home record (1.32 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cambridge United at home: 1.32 PPG; Charlton away: 1.12 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Cambridge United and Charlton runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. It has been a while since the last meeting — 12 April 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Charlton have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
Cambridge United's record when hosting Charlton specifically: 0W 1D 3L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
0
Cambridge United
3
Draws
5
Charlton
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cambridge United and Charlton?
From 8 meetings on record, Cambridge United have won 0, Charlton have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Cambridge United and Charlton last play each other?
They last met on 12 April 2025, when Cambridge United 0-1 Charlton.
Who has won more matches between Cambridge United and Charlton?
Charlton have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Cambridge United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Charlton are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cambridge United 44%, Charlton 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 39% (Cambridge United) and 49% (Charlton).
On the defensive side: Cambridge United keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Cambridge United have failed to score in 34% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cambridge United home games / Charlton away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cambridge United play Charlton?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Cambridge United's recent matches and 58% of Charlton's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cambridge United vs Charlton usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 39% of Cambridge United's recent games and 49% of Charlton's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cambridge United and Charlton tend to score early?
Cambridge United have had a goal before half-time in 66% of their recent matches, Charlton in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Charlton edge out Cambridge United 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Charlton beat Cambridge United 1-2 at Abbey Stadium, Regular Season - 37, in the League One. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cambridge United 0.87 xG and Charlton 1.18 xG, a combined 2.04. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Charlton outscored their 1.18 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cambridge United attack 0.71 / defence 1.03 against Charlton attack 1.03 / defence 0.95, drawn from 82/82 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cambridge United 26% | Draw 31% | Charlton 42%, with Charlton to win its most likely call at 42%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cambridge United 46%, Charlton 45%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cambridge United's trading profile (82 games, 41 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Charlton's trading profile (82 games, 41 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cambridge United 1.07 PPG, Charlton 1.27 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Charlton win broke the near-deadlock. Charlton (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.07 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.