Burton Albion 1-1 Wycombe – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Burton Albion at 38% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Burton Albion face Wycombe.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Pirelli Stadium plays host to Burton Albion versus Wycombe in League One (matchday 27). Kick-off: Saturday 6 January 2024 at 15:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Burton Albion have collected 0.80 PPG across their last 10 games: 2W 2D 6L. Last five: L D W W L. They are averaging 0.40 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
Burton Albion's form when playing at home: 5W 2D 3L across their last 10 home games (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Burton Albion are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Wycombe's record over their last 10 games: 1W 4D 5L (0.70 PPG). Last five: D D L D W. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Wycombe's form when playing away from home: 2W 4D 4L across their last 10 road games (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.80 for Burton Albion, 0.70 for Wycombe — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 4 H2H matches in our data, Wycombe edge it 2 wins to 1, with 1 draw. Neither side has a commanding advantage.
The 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 19 Aug 2023, ended Burton Albion 0–0 Wycombe — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading
Burton Albion half-time and goal-timing data (last 70 games, 35 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; of the 17 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 35%; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
Wycombe half-time and goal-timing data (last 70 games, 35 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 80% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 51% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Burton Albion 47% versus Wycombe 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Burton Albion 47% | Wycombe 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Burton Albion 1.09 xG and Wycombe 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Burton Albion attack 0.842 / defence 0.934 | Wycombe attack 0.907 / defence 0.938. League average goals — home 1.377 / away 1.135. Data: built from Burton Albion's last 71 games and Wycombe's last 70.
Result probabilities: Burton Albion 38% | Draw 31% | Wycombe 31%. Fair-value odds: Burton Albion 2.66 | Draw 3.18 | Wycombe 3.22. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS Yes probability 41% | Total xG 2.05. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.05 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 59% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Burton Albion as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Burton Albion if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.05 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 66% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Burton Albion 50% (last 10 home games) | Wycombe 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Burton Albion vs Wycombe | Competition: League One, matchday 27 | Venue: Pirelli Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 6 January 2024 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Burton Albion 38% | Draw 31% | Wycombe 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% (Under 66%) | BTTS Yes 41% (No 59%) | xG Burton Albion 1.09 / Wycombe 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: Burton Albion attack 0.842 / def 0.934 | Wycombe attack 0.907 / def 0.938 | league avg home 1.377 / away 1.135 • Poisson stance: Burton Albion (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.09
Burton Albion xG
Expected Goals
0.96
Wycombe xG
41%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Burton Albion vs Wycombe FAQs
What time does Burton Albion vs Wycombe kick off?
Burton Albion vs Wycombe kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Saturday 6 January 2024 at Pirelli Stadium.
What was the final score in Burton Albion vs Wycombe?
Burton Albion 1 - 1 Wycombe.
Where is Burton Albion vs Wycombe being played?
The match is being played at Pirelli Stadium.
What competition is Burton Albion vs Wycombe part of?
Burton Albion vs Wycombe is a League One fixture (matchday 27) (England).
Who is favourite to win Burton Albion vs Wycombe?
Our statistical model gives Burton Albion a 38% chance of winning, Wycombe a 31% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Burton Albion the favourite.
Will both teams score in Burton Albion vs Wycombe?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Burton Albion and Wycombe will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (59%).
Will Burton Albion vs Wycombe have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (66%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Burton Albion's attacking strength (0.84x league average) is weighed against Wycombe's defensive record (0.94x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.09. Flip it around — Wycombe's attack (0.91x) against Burton Albion's defence (0.93x) — and the away total comes out at 0.96.
These ratings are built from Burton Albion's last 71 games and Wycombe's last 70 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.6%), 1-0 (12.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Burton Albion Win
38%
2.66
31%
3.18
31%
3.22
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
0 – 0
12.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.09
Burton Albion xG
Total xG
2.05
0.96
Wycombe xG
2.66
38%
Home win
3.18
31%
Draw
3.22
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.41
59%
BTTS No
1.71
Clean Sheet
38%
2.62
34%
2.97
Win to Nil
14%
6.97
10%
9.55
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.9 | 12.4 | 6.0 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.0 | 13.5 | 6.5 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 7.3 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Burton Albion vs Wycombe Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Burton Albion vs Wycombe?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Burton Albion and Wycombe expected to score?
The model projects 1.09 expected goals for Burton Albion and 0.96 for Wycombe, a combined total of 2.05.
How confident is the prediction model for Burton Albion vs Wycombe?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Burton Albion's recent record stands at 22W 17D 31L from 70 games, a 1.19 PPG return, with L-D-W-W-L in the last five.
Wycombe, meanwhile, have gone 27W 16D 27L across 70 games — 1.39 PPG, with D-D-L-D-W in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.19 PPG for Burton Albion against 1.39 for Wycombe. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Burton Albion have managed 14W 10D 11L from their last 35 home games — 1.49 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Wycombe's away record stands at 12W 8D 15L across their last 35 away games, a 1.26 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Burton Albion are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game recently; Wycombe are on 1.24 scored and 1.20 conceded.
Last 70 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Burton Albion
Blended
Wycombe
Blended
Burton Albion (Home) vs Wycombe (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Burton Albion
Blended
Wycombe
Blended
❓ Burton Albion vs Wycombe Form FAQs
What form are Burton Albion and Wycombe in coming into this match?
Burton Albion have gone 22W 17D 31L in their last 70 games (1.19 PPG), while Wycombe have gone 27W 16D 27L in their last 70 (1.39 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Burton Albion at home or Wycombe away?
Burton Albion's home record (1.49 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Burton Albion at home: 1.49 PPG; Wycombe away: 1.26 PPG.
Have Burton Albion or Wycombe been keeping clean sheets recently?
Burton Albion have kept a clean sheet in 23% of their recent games, Wycombe in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 10 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to April 2022 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in League One. The most recent was as recently as 31 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Records & Recent Trends
Wycombe have won the most recent 2 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Wycombe won Wycombe 3-0 Burton Albion on 30 Jul 2022, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Burton Albion have gone 1W 2D 2L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Wycombe — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Burton Albion
3
Draws
6
Wycombe
Recent Meetings
❓ Burton Albion vs Wycombe H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Burton Albion and Wycombe?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Burton Albion have won 1, Wycombe have won 6, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Burton Albion and Wycombe last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 31 October 2026: Wycombe 2-0 Burton Albion.
Who has won more matches between Burton Albion and Wycombe?
Wycombe have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Burton Albion are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Wycombe are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Burton Albion 46%, Wycombe 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Burton Albion) and 51% (Wycombe).
On the defensive side: Wycombe in 31%; Burton Albion have failed to score in 34% of games; Wycombe in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Burton Albion home games / Wycombe away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Burton Albion vs Wycombe Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Burton Albion and Wycombe matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Burton Albion's recent matches and 43% of Wycombe's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Burton Albion and Wycombe matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Burton Albion's recent games and 51% of Wycombe's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Burton Albion and Wycombe matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 69% of Burton Albion's recent matches and 80% of Wycombe's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Burton Albion and Wycombe share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Burton Albion and Wycombe finished level at 1-1 at Pirelli Stadium, Regular Season - 27, in the League One. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Burton Albion 1.09 xG and Wycombe 0.96 xG, a combined 2.05. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Burton Albion attack 0.84 / defence 0.93 against Wycombe attack 0.91 / defence 0.94, drawn from 71/70 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Burton Albion 38% | Draw 31% | Wycombe 31%, with Burton Albion to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Burton Albion 47%, Wycombe 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Burton Albion's trading profile (70 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
Wycombe's trading profile (70 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Burton Albion 1.19 PPG, Wycombe 1.39 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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