Burton Albion 0-3 Stockport County – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Stockport County at 39% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Burton Albion vs Stockport County encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Burton Albion and Stockport County meet at Pirelli Stadium in League One (matchday 17). This fixture gets under way on Saturday 23 November 2024 at 15:00 UK time.
Current Form
Burton Albion's record over their last 10 games: 1W 2D 7L (0.50 PPG). Last five: L L L D W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home, Burton Albion have gone 2W 2D 6L in their last 10 home games (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Stockport County (all games): 4W 4D 2L across their last 10 — 1.60 points per game. Last five: L W L W W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.10. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
On the road, Stockport County have gone 4W 4D 2L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.60 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Stockport County arrive in superior form — a 1.10 PPG advantage (1.60 vs 0.50) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (from Burton Albion's last 10 home games and Stockport County's last 10 away games) — Burton Albion have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Stockport County in 80%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Trading & In-Play
Burton Albion — key trading statistics (last 60 games, 29 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; of the 13 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 31%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games); they fail to score in 43% of games.
Stockport County — key trading statistics (last 60 games, 29 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 79% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; they lead at the break 48% of the time; of the 10 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 76% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 66% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Burton Albion 48% versus Stockport County 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Burton Albion 50% | Stockport County 53%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Burton Albion surrender their half-time lead 31% of the time, while Stockport County have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 50% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Burton Albion 1.10 xG and Stockport County 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Burton Albion attack 0.882 / defence 1.177 | Stockport County attack 0.951 / defence 0.910. League average goals — home 1.372 / away 1.120. Data: built from Burton Albion's last 60 games and Stockport County's last 16.
Result probabilities: Burton Albion 32% | Draw 29% | Stockport County 39%. Fair-value odds: Burton Albion 3.14 | Draw 3.46 | Stockport County 2.55. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS Yes probability 48% | Total xG 2.35. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.35 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 52% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Stockport County at 39% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Stockport County if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.35 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 58% probability — low conviction — though recent form (Burton Albion's last 10 home games and Stockport County's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game points the other way.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on No. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Burton Albion 60% (last 10 home games) | Stockport County 80% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Burton Albion vs Stockport County | Competition: League One, matchday 17 | Venue: Pirelli Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 23 November 2024 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Burton Albion 32% | Draw 29% | Stockport County 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% (Under 58%) | BTTS Yes 48% (No 52%) | xG Burton Albion 1.10 / Stockport County 1.25 • Poisson strength factors: Burton Albion attack 0.882 / def 1.177 | Stockport County attack 0.951 / def 0.910 | league avg home 1.372 / away 1.120 • Poisson stance: Stockport County (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.10
Burton Albion xG
Expected Goals
1.25
Stockport County xG
48%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Burton Albion vs Stockport County FAQs
What time does Burton Albion vs Stockport County kick off?
Burton Albion vs Stockport County kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Saturday 23 November 2024 at Pirelli Stadium.
What was the final score in Burton Albion vs Stockport County?
Burton Albion 0 - 3 Stockport County.
Where is Burton Albion vs Stockport County being played?
The match is being played at Pirelli Stadium.
What competition is Burton Albion vs Stockport County part of?
Burton Albion vs Stockport County is a League One fixture (matchday 17) (England).
Who is favourite to win Burton Albion vs Stockport County?
Our statistical model gives Burton Albion a 32% chance of winning, Stockport County a 39% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Stockport County the favourite.
Will both teams score in Burton Albion vs Stockport County?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Burton Albion and Stockport County will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (52%).
Will Burton Albion vs Stockport County have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (58%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Burton Albion's attack rating (0.88) and Stockport County's defence rating (0.91), the model arrives at 1.10 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Stockport County's attack (0.95x) against Burton Albion's defence (1.18x) — and the away total comes out at 1.25.
These ratings are built from Burton Albion's last 60 games and Stockport County's last 16 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.2%), 0-1 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Stockport County Win
32%
3.14
29%
3.46
39%
2.55
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.9%
Away win
1 – 0
10.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.10
Burton Albion xG
Total xG
2.35
1.25
Stockport County xG
3.14
32%
Home win
3.46
29%
Draw
2.55
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.07
52%
BTTS No
1.93
Clean Sheet
29%
3.50
33%
3.01
Win to Nil
9%
11.00
13%
7.67
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.5 | 11.9 | 7.4 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.5 | 13.1 | 8.2 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 7.2 | 4.5 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 2.7 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Burton Albion vs Stockport County Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Burton Albion vs Stockport County?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Burton Albion and Stockport County expected to score?
The model projects 1.10 expected goals for Burton Albion and 1.25 for Stockport County, a combined total of 2.35.
How confident is the prediction model for Burton Albion vs Stockport County?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 60 outings, Burton Albion have picked up 0.90 PPG on a 13W 15D 32L record — L-L-L-D-W across the most recent five.
Stockport County's form line: 34W 17D 9L from 60 games, 1.98 PPG, last five L-W-L-W-W.
Put side by side, Stockport County are the form team by 1.08 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Burton Albion.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Burton Albion have posted 1.03 PPG from their last 29 home games (8W 6D 15L).
On the road, Stockport County have gone 14W 10D 5L from their last 29 away games — 1.79 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Stockport County come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Burton Albion are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.53 conceded per game recently; Stockport County are on 2.02 scored and 1.03 conceded.
Defensively: Stockport County in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 60 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Burton Albion
Blended
Stockport County
Blended
Burton Albion (Home) vs Stockport County (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Burton Albion
Blended
Stockport County
Blended
❓ Burton Albion vs Stockport County Form FAQs
What form are Burton Albion and Stockport County in coming into this match?
Burton Albion have gone 13W 15D 32L in their last 60 games (0.90 PPG), while Stockport County have gone 34W 17D 9L in their last 60 (1.98 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Burton Albion at home or Stockport County away?
Stockport County's away record (1.79 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Burton Albion at home: 1.03 PPG; Stockport County away: 1.79 PPG.
Have Burton Albion or Stockport County been keeping clean sheets recently?
Burton Albion have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, Stockport County in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 4 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to November 2024 — a small sample, so read the trends with care. All of them came in League One. The most recent was on 24 February 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Stockport County won Burton Albion 0-3 Stockport County on 23 Nov 2024, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Burton Albion have gone 1W 0D 1L from the 2 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Stockport County — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Burton Albion
0
Draws
3
Stockport County
Recent Meetings
❓ Burton Albion vs Stockport County H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Burton Albion and Stockport County?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Burton Albion have won 1, Stockport County have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Burton Albion and Stockport County last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 24 February 2026: Burton Albion 3-0 Stockport County.
Who has won more matches between Burton Albion and Stockport County?
Stockport County have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Burton Albion are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 30% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Stockport County are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 45% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 31% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 71% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Burton Albion 52%, Stockport County 76% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 45% (Burton Albion) and 66% (Stockport County). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 28% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Burton Albion have failed to score in 34% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Burton Albion home games / Stockport County away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Burton Albion vs Stockport County Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Burton Albion and Stockport County matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 52% of Burton Albion's games and 76% of Stockport County's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Burton Albion and Stockport County matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 45% of Burton Albion's matches and 66% of Stockport County's.
Do Burton Albion and Stockport County matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 69% of Burton Albion's recent matches and 79% of Stockport County's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Stockport County run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Burton Albion.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Stockport County beat Burton Albion 0-3 at Pirelli Stadium, Regular Season - 17, in the League One. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Burton Albion 1.10 xG and Stockport County 1.25 xG, a combined 2.35. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Burton Albion fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Stockport County outscored their 1.25 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Burton Albion attack 0.88 / defence 1.18 against Stockport County attack 0.95 / defence 0.91, drawn from 60/16 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Burton Albion 32% | Draw 29% | Stockport County 39%, with Stockport County to win its most likely call at 39%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Burton Albion 50%, Stockport County 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Burton Albion's trading profile (60 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 43% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Stockport County's trading profile (60 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Stockport County arrived the stronger side — 1.98 PPG against 0.90. Form held, and they took the win. Burton Albion (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.03 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.41 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Stockport County (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.97 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.21 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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