Burton Albion 2-2 Plymouth – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Plymouth at 53% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Burton Albion vs Plymouth encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a League One clash, Regular Season - 19 as Burton Albion welcome Plymouth to Pirelli Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 19 November 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all League One games this season, Burton Albion have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: D W L L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Burton Albion, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Burton Albion's home record at Pirelli Stadium: 2W 2D 6L from 10 League One appearances (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Plymouth stand at 7W 3D 0L from 10 League One matches — 2.40 PPG. Last five: W D W W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Plymouth, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in League One this season, Plymouth have posted 4W 4D 2L from 10 away outings — 1.60 PPG. They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.60 is notably below their overall 2.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Plymouth's 2.40 PPG return is 1.20 points per game ahead of Burton Albion's 1.20 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Burton Albion, 1 for Plymouth and 1 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The last 2 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.5 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 9 Apr 2022, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Burton Albion in-play and half-time data (64 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Plymouth in-play and half-time data (64 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Burton Albion 53% versus Plymouth 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Burton Albion 50% | Plymouth 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Burton Albion 1.27 xG and Plymouth 1.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Burton Albion attack 0.876 / defence 1.239 | Plymouth attack 1.248 / defence 1.114. League average goals — home 1.297 / away 1.245. Plymouth have an above-average attack strength of 1.248 — the away xG of 1.93 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 64 Burton Albion games / 64 Plymouth games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Burton Albion 25% | Draw 22% | Plymouth 53%. Fair-value odds: Burton Albion 4.00 | Draw 4.55 | Plymouth 1.89. Plymouth hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.19. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.19 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.27 / 1.93) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Plymouth at 53% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 22% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Plymouth offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 3.19 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 62% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 61% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Burton Albion 40% | Plymouth 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Burton Albion vs Plymouth | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Pirelli Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 19 Nov 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Burton Albion 25% | Draw 22% | Plymouth 53% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 61% | xG Burton Albion 1.27 / Plymouth 1.93 • Poisson strength factors: Burton Albion attack 0.876 / def 1.239 | Plymouth attack 1.248 / def 1.114 | league avg home 1.297 / away 1.245 • Poisson stance: Plymouth (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.27
Burton Albion xG
Expected Goals
1.93
Plymouth xG
61%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Burton Albion vs Plymouth kick off?
Burton Albion vs Plymouth kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 19 November 2022 at Pirelli Stadium.
What was the final score in Burton Albion vs Plymouth?
Burton Albion 2 - 2 Plymouth.
Where is Burton Albion vs Plymouth being played?
The match is being played at Pirelli Stadium.
What competition is Burton Albion vs Plymouth part of?
Burton Albion vs Plymouth is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Burton Albion vs Plymouth?
Our statistical model gives Burton Albion a 25% chance of winning, Plymouth a 53% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Plymouth the favourite.
Will both teams score in Burton Albion vs Plymouth?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Burton Albion and Plymouth will score (BTTS).
Will Burton Albion vs Plymouth have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between Burton Albion and Plymouth?
Record (2 meetings): Burton Albion 0W | Draws 1 | Plymouth 1W.
What form are Burton Albion and Plymouth in?
Burton Albion (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-W-L-L-D. Plymouth (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Burton Albion's attacking strength (0.88x league average) is weighed against Plymouth's defensive record (1.11x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.27. The same calculation in reverse, Plymouth's attack versus Burton Albion's defence, projects 1.93 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 64/64 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.3%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.6%), 0-2 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Plymouth Win
25%
4.00
22%
4.49
53%
1.90
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.6%
Away win
0 – 1
7.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.27
Burton Albion xG
Total xG
3.19
1.93
Plymouth xG
4.00
25%
Home win
4.49
22%
Draw
1.90
53%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.63
39%
BTTS No
2.59
Clean Sheet
15%
6.86
28%
3.55
Win to Nil
4%
27.48
15%
6.72
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.1 | 7.9 | 7.6 | 4.9 | 2.4 | 0.9 |
| 1 | 5.2 | 10.0 | 9.6 | 6.2 | 3.0 | 1.1 |
| 2 | 3.3 | 6.3 | 6.1 | 3.9 | 1.9 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 2.7 | 2.6 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Burton Albion vs Plymouth?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.3%.
How many goals are Burton Albion and Plymouth expected to score?
The model projects 1.27 expected goals for Burton Albion and 1.93 for Plymouth, a combined total of 3.19.
How confident is the prediction model for Burton Albion vs Plymouth?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Burton Albion's recent record stands at 17W 15D 32L from 64 games, a 1.03 PPG return, with D-W-L-L-D in the last five. The sample for Burton Albion is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Plymouth, meanwhile, have gone 36W 14D 14L across 64 games — 1.91 PPG, with W-D-W-W-D in their last five. The sample for Plymouth is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Plymouth by 0.88 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Burton Albion heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Burton Albion have managed 12W 8D 12L from 32 games — 1.38 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Plymouth's away record stands at 13W 10D 9L across 32 trips, a 1.53 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Burton Albion are averaging 1.16 goals scored and 1.64 conceded per game recently; Plymouth are on 1.64 scored and 1.06 conceded.
Defensively: Plymouth in 39% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 64 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Burton Albion
Blended
Plymouth
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Burton Albion and Plymouth in coming into this match?
Burton Albion have gone 17W 15D 32L in their last 64 games (1.03 PPG), while Plymouth have gone 36W 14D 14L in their last 64 (1.91 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Burton Albion at home or Plymouth away?
Plymouth's away record (1.53 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Burton Albion at home: 1.38 PPG; Plymouth away: 1.53 PPG.
Have Burton Albion or Plymouth been keeping clean sheets recently?
Burton Albion have kept a clean sheet in 19% of their recent games, Plymouth in 39%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Burton Albion and Plymouth runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. They last met on 4 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Plymouth have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 27 Sep 2025, when Plymouth won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Burton Albion's record when hosting Plymouth specifically: 0W 2D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Burton Albion
2
Draws
4
Plymouth
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Burton Albion and Plymouth?
From 6 meetings on record, Burton Albion have won 0, Plymouth have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Burton Albion and Plymouth last play each other?
They last met on 4 January 2026, when Plymouth 3-0 Burton Albion.
Who has won more matches between Burton Albion and Plymouth?
Plymouth have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Burton Albion are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Plymouth are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Burton Albion 50%, Plymouth 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Burton Albion) and 53% (Plymouth).
On the defensive side: Burton Albion have failed to score in 34% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Burton Albion home games / Plymouth away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Burton Albion play Plymouth?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Burton Albion's recent matches and 59% of Plymouth's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Burton Albion vs Plymouth usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Burton Albion's recent games and 53% of Plymouth's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Burton Albion and Plymouth tend to score early?
Burton Albion have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Plymouth in 84% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Burton Albion and Plymouth share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Burton Albion and Plymouth finished level at 2-2 at Pirelli Stadium, Regular Season - 19, in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Burton Albion 1.27 xG and Plymouth 1.93 xG, a combined 3.19. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Burton Albion attack 0.88 / defence 1.24 against Plymouth attack 1.25 / defence 1.11, drawn from 64/64 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Burton Albion 25% | Draw 22% | Plymouth 53%, with Plymouth to win its most likely call at 53%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 40% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Burton Albion 50%, Plymouth 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Burton Albion's trading profile (64 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Plymouth's trading profile (64 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Plymouth arrived the stronger side — 1.91 PPG against 1.03. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.