Burton Albion 2-1 Mansfield Town – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Burton Albion at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Burton Albion vs Mansfield Town fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Mansfield Town make the trip to Pirelli Stadium to face Burton Albion in League One, Regular Season - 1. The match kicks off on Saturday 2 August 2025 at 15:00 UTC.
Current Form
Burton Albion's overall League One record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: D L W D L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Burton Albion haven't played a League One game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Burton Albion at Pirelli Stadium this season: 5W 3D 2L from 10 home games — 1.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Mansfield Town (all games): 4W 1D 5L across 10 League One outings this term — 1.30 points per game. Last five: D L L W W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 2.30. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Mansfield Town haven't played a League One game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Mansfield Town away from home this season: 1W 4D 5L from 10 away games — 0.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.40 vs 1.30 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Burton Albion register both teams scoring in 90% of relevant games, Mansfield Town in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Burton Albion, 0 for Mansfield Town and 2 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.0 goals per game across 2 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 1 Mar 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Burton Albion goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (46 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Mansfield Town goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (46 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Burton Albion 54% versus Mansfield Town 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Burton Albion 52% | Mansfield Town 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Burton Albion 1.66 xG and Mansfield Town 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Burton Albion attack 1.048 / defence 1.030 | Mansfield Town attack 1.026 / defence 1.156. League average goals — home 1.373 / away 1.172. Data: 46 Burton Albion games / 46 Mansfield Town games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Burton Albion 47% | Draw 24% | Mansfield Town 28%. Fair-value odds: Burton Albion 2.13 | Draw 4.17 | Mansfield Town 3.57. Burton Albion hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.90. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.90 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Burton Albion are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Burton Albion if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.90 combined xG gives a 56% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 58%. Form rates corroborate: Burton Albion 90% | Mansfield Town 70% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (46 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Burton Albion vs Mansfield Town | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Pirelli Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 2 Aug 2025, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Burton Albion 47% | Draw 24% | Mansfield Town 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 58% | xG Burton Albion 1.66 / Mansfield Town 1.24 • Poisson strength factors: Burton Albion attack 1.048 / def 1.030 | Mansfield Town attack 1.026 / def 1.156 | league avg home 1.373 / away 1.172 • Poisson stance: Burton Albion (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.66
Burton Albion xG
Expected Goals
1.24
Mansfield Town xG
58%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Burton Albion vs Mansfield Town kick off?
Burton Albion vs Mansfield Town kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 2 August 2025 at Pirelli Stadium.
What was the final score in Burton Albion vs Mansfield Town?
Burton Albion 2 - 1 Mansfield Town.
Where is Burton Albion vs Mansfield Town being played?
The match is being played at Pirelli Stadium.
What competition is Burton Albion vs Mansfield Town part of?
Burton Albion vs Mansfield Town is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Burton Albion vs Mansfield Town?
Our statistical model gives Burton Albion a 47% chance of winning, Mansfield Town a 28% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Burton Albion the favourite.
Will both teams score in Burton Albion vs Mansfield Town?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Burton Albion and Mansfield Town will score (BTTS).
Will Burton Albion vs Mansfield Town have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Burton Albion and Mansfield Town?
Record (2 meetings): Burton Albion 0W | Draws 2 | Mansfield Town 0W.
What form are Burton Albion and Mansfield Town in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Burton Albion (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Burton Albion's attack rating (1.05) and Mansfield Town's defence rating (1.16), the model arrives at 1.66 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Mansfield Town's attack (1.03x) against Burton Albion's defence (1.03x) — and the away total comes out at 1.24.
These ratings are built from 46/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 1-0 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Burton Albion Win
47%
2.12
24%
4.10
28%
3.52
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
1 – 0
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.66
Burton Albion xG
Total xG
2.90
1.24
Mansfield Town xG
2.12
47%
Home win
4.10
24%
Draw
3.52
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.73
42%
BTTS No
2.37
Clean Sheet
29%
3.46
19%
5.28
Win to Nil
14%
7.32
5%
18.59
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 6.8 | 4.2 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.1 | 11.3 | 7.0 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 9.4 | 5.8 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 5.2 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.2 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Burton Albion vs Mansfield Town?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Burton Albion and Mansfield Town expected to score?
The model projects 1.66 expected goals for Burton Albion and 1.24 for Mansfield Town, a combined total of 2.90.
How confident is the prediction model for Burton Albion vs Mansfield Town?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Burton Albion come into this having played 46 games, going 11W 14D 21L for 1.02 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-W-D-L. Burton Albion haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
On the other side, Mansfield Town sit at 1.17 PPG from 46 outings (15W 9D 22L), a run that reads D-L-L-W-W across their last five. Mansfield Town haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.02 PPG for Burton Albion against 1.17 for Mansfield Town. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Burton Albion's home form reads 6W 6D 11L across 23 games on their own ground, a 1.04 PPG return.
Away from home, Mansfield Town have taken 1.13 points per game from 23 outings (7W 5D 11L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Burton Albion are averaging 1.07 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; Mansfield Town are on 1.30 scored and 1.59 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Mansfield Town in 61%.
Last 46 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Burton Albion
Pre-Season
Mansfield Town
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Burton Albion and Mansfield Town in coming into this match?
Burton Albion have gone 11W 14D 21L in their last 46 games (1.02 PPG), while Mansfield Town have gone 15W 9D 22L in their last 46 (1.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Burton Albion at home or Mansfield Town away?
Mansfield Town's away record (1.13 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Burton Albion at home: 1.04 PPG; Mansfield Town away: 1.13 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since August 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. They last met on 6 April 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Burton Albion have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Mansfield Town — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Burton Albion
3
Draws
0
Mansfield Town
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Burton Albion and Mansfield Town?
From 4 meetings on record, Burton Albion have won 1, Mansfield Town have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Burton Albion and Mansfield Town last play each other?
They last met on 6 April 2026, when Mansfield Town 0-0 Burton Albion.
Who has won more matches between Burton Albion and Mansfield Town?
Burton Albion have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Burton Albion are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Mansfield Town are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Burton Albion 65%, Mansfield Town 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 61% for Burton Albion and 65% for Mansfield Town. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 26% and 26% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Burton Albion have failed to score in 26% of games; Mansfield Town in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Burton Albion home games / Mansfield Town away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Burton Albion play Mansfield Town?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 65% of Burton Albion's games and 61% of Mansfield Town's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Burton Albion vs Mansfield Town usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 61% of Burton Albion's matches and 65% of Mansfield Town's.
Do Burton Albion and Mansfield Town tend to score early?
Burton Albion have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Mansfield Town in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Burton Albion edge out Mansfield Town 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Burton Albion beat Mansfield Town 2-1 at Pirelli Stadium, Regular Season - 1, in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Burton Albion 1.66 xG and Mansfield Town 1.24 xG, a combined 2.90. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Burton Albion attack 1.05 / defence 1.03 against Mansfield Town attack 1.03 / defence 1.16, drawn from 46/46 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Burton Albion 47% | Draw 24% | Mansfield Town 28%, with Burton Albion to win its most likely call at 47%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Burton Albion 52%, Mansfield Town 63%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Burton Albion's trading profile (46 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Mansfield Town's trading profile (46 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Burton Albion 1.02 PPG, Mansfield Town 1.17 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Burton Albion win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.