Burton Albion 0-1 Ipswich – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Ipswich at 47% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Burton Albion vs Ipswich encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A League One encounter, Regular Season - 4 sees Ipswich travel to Pirelli Stadium to take on Burton Albion. The game is scheduled for Tuesday 16 August 2022, 19:45 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Burton Albion stand at 1W 4D 5L from 10 League One matches — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L L L L D. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. Burton Albion have played only a handful of League One games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Burton Albion's home record at Pirelli Stadium: 3W 3D 4L from 10 League One appearances (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Burton Albion are significantly better at Pirelli Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Ipswich — All Games: 4W 4D 2L from 10 League One fixtures this season — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D W D W W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Ipswich have played only a handful of League One games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Ipswich have gone 3W 5D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Ipswich — 0.90 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.60 vs 0.70). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Burton Albion, 1 for Ipswich and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 19 Feb 2022, ended 0–3 with Ipswich winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Burton Albion in-play tendencies (49 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
Ipswich in-play tendencies (49 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Burton Albion 51% versus Ipswich 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Burton Albion 51% | Ipswich 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Burton Albion 1.05 xG and Ipswich 1.48 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Burton Albion attack 0.859 / defence 1.303 | Ipswich attack 1.068 / defence 0.881. League average goals — home 1.383 / away 1.067. Data: 49 Burton Albion games / 49 Ipswich games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Burton Albion 26% | Draw 26% | Ipswich 47%. Fair-value odds: Burton Albion 3.85 | Draw 3.85 | Ipswich 2.13. Ipswich hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.53. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.53 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Ipswich as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Ipswich offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.53 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 46% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 50%. Form rates are neutral: Burton Albion 40% | Ipswich 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Burton Albion vs Ipswich | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Pirelli Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 16 Aug 2022, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Burton Albion 26% | Draw 26% | Ipswich 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 50% | xG Burton Albion 1.05 / Ipswich 1.48 • Poisson strength factors: Burton Albion attack 0.859 / def 1.303 | Ipswich attack 1.068 / def 0.881 | league avg home 1.383 / away 1.067 • Poisson stance: Ipswich (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.05
Burton Albion xG
Expected Goals
1.48
Ipswich xG
50%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Burton Albion vs Ipswich kick off?
Burton Albion vs Ipswich kicked off at 19:45 on Tuesday 16 August 2022 at Pirelli Stadium.
What was the final score in Burton Albion vs Ipswich?
Burton Albion 0 - 1 Ipswich.
Where is Burton Albion vs Ipswich being played?
The match is being played at Pirelli Stadium.
What competition is Burton Albion vs Ipswich part of?
Burton Albion vs Ipswich is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Burton Albion vs Ipswich?
Our statistical model gives Burton Albion a 26% chance of winning, Ipswich a 47% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Ipswich the favourite.
Will both teams score in Burton Albion vs Ipswich?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Burton Albion and Ipswich will score (BTTS).
Will Burton Albion vs Ipswich have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Burton Albion and Ipswich?
Record (2 meetings): Burton Albion 1W | Draws 0 | Ipswich 1W.
What form are Burton Albion and Ipswich in?
Burton Albion (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-L-L-D. Ipswich (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Burton Albion's attacking strength (0.86x league average) is weighed against Ipswich's defensive record (0.88x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.05. The same calculation in reverse, Ipswich's attack versus Burton Albion's defence, projects 1.48 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 49/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.0%. Close behind: 0-1 (10.2%), 0-0 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ipswich Win
26%
3.77
26%
3.79
47%
2.12
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.8%
Away win
1 – 2
9.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.05
Burton Albion xG
Total xG
2.53
1.48
Ipswich xG
3.77
26%
Home win
3.79
26%
Draw
2.12
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.99
50%
BTTS No
2.01
Clean Sheet
23%
4.41
35%
2.85
Win to Nil
6%
16.64
17%
6.05
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.0 | 11.8 | 8.8 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.3 | 12.4 | 9.2 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.4 | 6.5 | 4.8 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.3 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Burton Albion vs Ipswich?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Burton Albion and Ipswich expected to score?
The model projects 1.05 expected goals for Burton Albion and 1.48 for Ipswich, a combined total of 2.53.
How confident is the prediction model for Burton Albion vs Ipswich?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 49 outings, Burton Albion have picked up 1.10 PPG on a 14W 12D 23L record — L-L-L-L-D across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Burton Albion, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Ipswich's form line: 20W 17D 12L from 49 games, 1.57 PPG, last five D-W-D-W-W. It's still early in the season for Ipswich, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Ipswich are the form team by 0.47 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Burton Albion.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Burton Albion have posted 1.50 PPG from 24 outings (10W 6D 8L).
On the road, Ipswich have gone 8W 7D 9L from 24 away games — 1.29 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Burton Albion are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 1.59 conceded per game recently; Ipswich are on 1.49 scored and 0.98 conceded.
Defensively: Ipswich in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 49 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Burton Albion
Early Season
Ipswich
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Burton Albion and Ipswich in coming into this match?
Burton Albion have gone 14W 12D 23L in their last 49 games (1.10 PPG), while Ipswich have gone 20W 17D 12L in their last 49 (1.57 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Burton Albion at home or Ipswich away?
Burton Albion's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Burton Albion at home: 1.50 PPG; Ipswich away: 1.29 PPG.
Have Burton Albion or Ipswich been keeping clean sheets recently?
Burton Albion have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, Ipswich in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Burton Albion and Ipswich runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. It has been a while since the last meeting — 4 March 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Ipswich have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 4 Mar 2023, when Ipswich won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Burton Albion's record when hosting Ipswich specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Burton Albion
0
Draws
3
Ipswich
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Burton Albion and Ipswich?
From 4 meetings on record, Burton Albion have won 1, Ipswich have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Burton Albion and Ipswich last play each other?
They last met on 4 March 2023, when Ipswich 4-0 Burton Albion.
Who has won more matches between Burton Albion and Ipswich?
Ipswich have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Burton Albion are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Ipswich are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 21% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Burton Albion 54%, Ipswich 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Burton Albion) and 38% (Ipswich).
On the defensive side: Burton Albion have failed to score in 29% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Burton Albion home games / Ipswich away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Burton Albion play Ipswich?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Burton Albion's recent matches and 50% of Ipswich's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Burton Albion vs Ipswich usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Burton Albion's recent games and 38% of Ipswich's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Burton Albion and Ipswich tend to score early?
Burton Albion have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Ipswich in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Ipswich edge out Burton Albion 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ipswich beat Burton Albion 0-1 at Pirelli Stadium, Regular Season - 4, in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Burton Albion 1.05 xG and Ipswich 1.48 xG, a combined 2.53. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Burton Albion fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Burton Albion attack 0.86 / defence 1.30 against Ipswich attack 1.07 / defence 0.88, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Burton Albion 26% | Draw 26% | Ipswich 47%, with Ipswich to win its most likely call at 47%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Burton Albion 51%, Ipswich 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Burton Albion's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 37% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Ipswich's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Ipswich arrived the stronger side — 1.57 PPG against 1.10. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Burton Albion (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.42 scoring average — below par going forward. Ipswich (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.04 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.