Bradford 1-0 Stockport County – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bradford at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Bradford vs Stockport County fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Bradford host Stockport County at Valley Parade in League One, Regular Season - 33. Kick-off is scheduled for Tuesday 17 February 2026 at 19:45 UTC.
Form Guide
Bradford — All Games: 5W 0D 5L from 10 League One outings this season, averaging 1.50 points per game. Last five: L L W L W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Bradford at Valley Parade this season: 6W 2D 2L from 10 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Valley Parade. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Bradford are significantly better at Valley Parade than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Stockport County stand at 5W 3D 2L from 10 League One matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W D W W D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in League One this season, Stockport County have posted 6W 2D 2L from 10 away outings — 2.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.50 PPG (Bradford) versus 1.80 (Stockport County). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Bradford, 1 for Stockport County and 3 shared spoils from 5 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.2 per contest from 5 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 19 Aug 2025, ended 2–1 with Bradford winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.2 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Bradford in-play tendencies (76 games, 37 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 51% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 51% of games (home games).
Stockport County in-play tendencies (76 games, 37 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bradford 54% versus Stockport County 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bradford 50% | Stockport County 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bradford 1.02 xG and Stockport County 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bradford attack 0.925 / defence 0.800 | Stockport County attack 1.007 / defence 0.795. League average goals — home 1.389 / away 1.151. Stockport County's defence strength of 0.795 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 30 Bradford games / 76 Stockport County games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bradford 37% | Draw 31% | Stockport County 32%. Fair-value odds: Bradford 2.70 | Draw 3.23 | Stockport County 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 1.95. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.95 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Bradford are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Bradford offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 1.95 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 31% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 1.2 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 39% on No. Form rates corroborate: Bradford 40% | Stockport County 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bradford vs Stockport County | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: Valley Parade • Kick-off: Tuesday 17 Feb 2026, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bradford 37% | Draw 31% | Stockport County 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 31% | BTTS 39% | xG Bradford 1.02 / Stockport County 0.93 • Poisson strength factors: Bradford attack 0.925 / def 0.800 | Stockport County attack 1.007 / def 0.795 | league avg home 1.389 / away 1.151 • Poisson stance: Bradford (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.02
Bradford xG
Expected Goals
0.93
Stockport County xG
39%
BTTS
58%
Over 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bradford vs Stockport County kick off?
Bradford vs Stockport County kicked off at 19:45 on Tuesday 17 February 2026 at Valley Parade.
What was the final score in Bradford vs Stockport County?
Bradford 1 - 0 Stockport County.
Where is Bradford vs Stockport County being played?
The match is being played at Valley Parade.
What competition is Bradford vs Stockport County part of?
Bradford vs Stockport County is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Bradford vs Stockport County?
Our statistical model gives Bradford a 37% chance of winning, Stockport County a 32% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Bradford the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bradford vs Stockport County?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Bradford and Stockport County will score (BTTS).
Will Bradford vs Stockport County have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 31%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bradford and Stockport County?
Record (5 meetings): Bradford 1W | Draws 3 | Stockport County 1W.
What form are Bradford and Stockport County in?
Bradford (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-W-L-W. Stockport County (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Bradford's attacking strength (0.93x league average) is weighed against Stockport County's defensive record (0.80x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.02. The same calculation in reverse, Stockport County's attack versus Bradford's defence, projects 0.93 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 30/76 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 16.0%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.2%), 1-0 (12.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bradford Win
37%
2.72
31%
3.19
32%
3.14
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.6%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.3%
Draw
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.02
Bradford xG
Total xG
1.95
0.93
Stockport County xG
2.72
37%
Home win
3.19
31%
Draw
3.14
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
58%
Over 1.5
1.72
42%
Under 1.5
2.38
31%
Over 2.5
3.23
69%
Under 2.5
1.45
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.59
61%
BTTS No
1.63
Clean Sheet
40%
2.53
36%
2.78
Win to Nil
15%
6.86
11%
8.71
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.3 | 13.2 | 6.1 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.6 | 13.5 | 6.3 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 6.9 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.5 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bradford vs Stockport County?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.0%.
How many goals are Bradford and Stockport County expected to score?
The model projects 1.02 expected goals for Bradford and 0.93 for Stockport County, a combined total of 1.95.
How confident is the prediction model for Bradford vs Stockport County?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 76 outings, Bradford have picked up 1.71 PPG on a 37W 19D 20L record — L-L-W-L-W across the most recent five.
Stockport County's form line: 38W 22D 16L from 76 games, 1.79 PPG, last five W-D-W-W-D.
Form-wise this is close to level: Bradford on 1.71 PPG, Stockport County on 1.79. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Bradford have posted 2.41 PPG from 37 outings (28W 5D 4L). That's noticeably better than their 1.71 PPG overall — Bradford are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Stockport County have gone 15W 13D 9L from 37 away games — 1.57 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bradford come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Bradford are averaging 1.36 goals scored and 1.03 conceded per game recently; Stockport County are on 1.47 scored and 1.05 conceded.
Last 76 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bradford
Current Season
Stockport County
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bradford and Stockport County in coming into this match?
Bradford have gone 37W 19D 20L in their last 76 games (1.71 PPG), while Stockport County have gone 38W 22D 16L in their last 76 (1.79 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bradford at home or Stockport County away?
Bradford's home record (2.41 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bradford at home: 2.41 PPG; Stockport County away: 1.57 PPG.
Have Bradford or Stockport County been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bradford have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Stockport County in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2022. The pairing has crossed competitions too — League Two, League One all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 17 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Bradford go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Bradford's record when hosting Stockport County specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Bradford
3
Draws
1
Stockport County
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bradford and Stockport County?
From 6 meetings on record, Bradford have won 2, Stockport County have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Bradford and Stockport County last play each other?
They last met on 17 February 2026, when Bradford 1-0 Stockport County.
Who has won more matches between Bradford and Stockport County?
Bradford have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Bradford are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time.
Stockport County are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bradford 51%, Stockport County 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 51% (Bradford) and 38% (Stockport County).
On the defensive side: Bradford keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bradford home games / Stockport County away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bradford play Stockport County?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 51% of Bradford's recent matches and 57% of Stockport County's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Bradford vs Stockport County usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 51% of Bradford's recent games and 38% of Stockport County's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bradford and Stockport County tend to score early?
Bradford have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Stockport County in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Bradford edge out Stockport County 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bradford beat Stockport County 1-0 at Valley Parade, Regular Season - 33, in the League One. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bradford 1.02 xG and Stockport County 0.93 xG, a combined 1.95. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Stockport County landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bradford attack 0.93 / defence 0.80 against Stockport County attack 1.01 / defence 0.80, drawn from 30/76 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bradford 37% | Draw 31% | Stockport County 32%, with Bradford to win its most likely call at 37%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 58% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bradford 50%, Stockport County 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bradford's trading profile (76 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and duly kept one.
Stockport County's trading profile (76 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bradford 1.71 PPG, Stockport County 1.79 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bradford win broke the near-deadlock. Stockport County (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.32 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.