Bradford 2-0 Peterborough – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bradford at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Bradford vs Peterborough fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A League One encounter, Regular Season - 32 sees Peterborough travel to Valley Parade to take on Bradford. The game is scheduled for Saturday 14 February 2026, 15:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Bradford stand at 4W 0D 6L from 10 League One matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L L L W L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
In front of their own supporters this season, Bradford have posted 6W 2D 2L at Valley Parade — 2.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Valley Parade. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Bradford are significantly better at Valley Parade than their overall form suggests.
Across all League One games this season, Peterborough have recorded 5W 1D 4L from 10 outings — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W L L W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Peterborough's away record: 6W 0D 4L from 10 road trips in League One this season (1.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Bradford 1.20 PPG, Peterborough 1.60 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Bradford, 0 for Peterborough and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 23 Aug 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Bradford trading profile (75 games, 37 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 51% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 51% of games (home games).
Peterborough trading profile (75 games, 37 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bradford 55% versus Peterborough 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bradford 51% | Peterborough 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bradford 1.18 xG and Peterborough 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bradford attack 0.876 / defence 0.883 | Peterborough attack 1.115 / defence 0.967. League average goals — home 1.393 / away 1.137. Data: 29 Bradford games / 77 Peterborough games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bradford 37% | Draw 28% | Peterborough 34%. Fair-value odds: Bradford 2.70 | Draw 3.57 | Peterborough 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.30. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.30 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Bradford as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Bradford offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.30 combined xG gives a 40% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 47% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Bradford 40% | Peterborough 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bradford vs Peterborough | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: Valley Parade • Kick-off: Saturday 14 Feb 2026, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bradford 37% | Draw 28% | Peterborough 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 47% | xG Bradford 1.18 / Peterborough 1.12 • Poisson strength factors: Bradford attack 0.876 / def 0.883 | Peterborough attack 1.115 / def 0.967 | league avg home 1.393 / away 1.137 • Poisson stance: Bradford (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.18
Bradford xG
Expected Goals
1.12
Peterborough xG
47%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bradford vs Peterborough kick off?
Bradford vs Peterborough kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 14 February 2026 at Valley Parade.
What was the final score in Bradford vs Peterborough?
Bradford 2 - 0 Peterborough.
Where is Bradford vs Peterborough being played?
The match is being played at Valley Parade.
What competition is Bradford vs Peterborough part of?
Bradford vs Peterborough is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Bradford vs Peterborough?
Our statistical model gives Bradford a 37% chance of winning, Peterborough a 34% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Bradford the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bradford vs Peterborough?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Bradford and Peterborough will score (BTTS).
Will Bradford vs Peterborough have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bradford and Peterborough?
Record (1 meetings): Bradford 0W | Draws 1 | Peterborough 0W.
What form are Bradford and Peterborough in?
Bradford (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-L-W-L. Peterborough (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Bradford's attack rating (0.88) and Peterborough's defence rating (0.97), the model arrives at 1.18 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Peterborough's attack versus Bradford's defence, projects 1.12 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 29/77 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.7%), 1-0 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bradford Win
37%
2.68
28%
3.53
34%
2.91
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.8%
Home win
0 – 1
11.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.18
Bradford xG
Total xG
2.30
1.12
Peterborough xG
2.68
37%
Home win
3.53
28%
Draw
2.91
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.14
53%
BTTS No
1.88
Clean Sheet
33%
3.06
31%
3.26
Win to Nil
12%
8.20
11%
9.49
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.0 | 11.2 | 6.3 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.8 | 13.2 | 7.4 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 7.8 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 3.1 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bradford vs Peterborough?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Bradford and Peterborough expected to score?
The model projects 1.18 expected goals for Bradford and 1.12 for Peterborough, a combined total of 2.30.
How confident is the prediction model for Bradford vs Peterborough?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Bradford come into this having played 75 games, going 36W 19D 20L for 1.69 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-W-L.
On the other side, Peterborough sit at 1.23 PPG from 75 outings (26W 14D 35L), a run that reads W-L-L-W-W across their last five.
Bradford carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.46 PPG clear of Peterborough — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Bradford's home form reads 27W 6D 4L across 37 games on their own ground, a 2.35 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.69 PPG overall — Bradford are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Peterborough have taken 1.03 points per game from 37 outings (11W 5D 21L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bradford come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Bradford are averaging 1.35 goals scored and 1.04 conceded per game recently; Peterborough are on 1.45 scored and 1.59 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Peterborough in 61%.
Last 75 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bradford
Current Season
Peterborough
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bradford and Peterborough in coming into this match?
Bradford have gone 36W 19D 20L in their last 75 games (1.69 PPG), while Peterborough have gone 26W 14D 35L in their last 75 (1.23 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bradford at home or Peterborough away?
Bradford's home record (2.35 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bradford at home: 2.35 PPG; Peterborough away: 1.03 PPG.
Have Bradford or Peterborough been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bradford have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Peterborough in 19%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
3 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. The two were last together as recently as 15 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Bradford have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Bradford's record when hosting Peterborough specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 3 Meetings
2
Bradford
1
Draws
0
Peterborough
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bradford and Peterborough?
From 3 meetings on record, Bradford have won 2, Peterborough have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Bradford and Peterborough last play each other?
They last met on 15 August 2026, when Bradford 2-0 Peterborough.
Who has won more matches between Bradford and Peterborough?
Bradford have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 3 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Bradford are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 57% of the time.
Peterborough are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bradford 51%, Peterborough 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 51% (Bradford) and 62% (Peterborough). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 19% and 30% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Bradford keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bradford home games / Peterborough away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bradford play Peterborough?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 51% of Bradford's games and 62% of Peterborough's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Bradford vs Peterborough usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 51% of Bradford's matches and 62% of Peterborough's.
Do Bradford and Peterborough tend to score early?
Bradford have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Peterborough in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Bradford cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Peterborough.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bradford beat Peterborough 2-0 at Valley Parade, Regular Season - 32, in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bradford 1.18 xG and Peterborough 1.12 xG, a combined 2.30. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Bradford beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Peterborough landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bradford attack 0.88 / defence 0.88 against Peterborough attack 1.11 / defence 0.97, drawn from 29/77 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bradford 37% | Draw 28% | Peterborough 34%, with Bradford to win its most likely call at 37%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bradford 51%, Peterborough 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bradford's trading profile (75 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Peterborough's trading profile (75 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Bradford arrived the stronger side — 1.69 PPG against 1.23. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Peterborough (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.19 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.