Bolton 1-0 Peterborough – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bolton at 45% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Bolton face Peterborough.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Peterborough make the trip to Toughsheet Community Stadium to face Bolton in League One (matchday 14). The match kicks off on Saturday 26 October 2024 at 16:00 UK time.
Form
Bolton (all games): 4W 2D 4L across their last 10 — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W W D W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
At home, Bolton have gone 3W 3D 4L in their last 10 home games (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
Peterborough have collected 1.20 PPG across their last 10 games: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: L W D L W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 2.10. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
On the road, Peterborough have gone 3W 1D 6L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.40 PPG for Bolton against 1.20 for Peterborough. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 4 H2H matches in our data, Bolton edge it 2 wins to 0, with 2 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.5 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 27 Apr 2024, ended Bolton 3–3 Peterborough — a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.5 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Bolton — key trading statistics (last 60 games, 29 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 83% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 44%; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Peterborough — key trading statistics (last 60 games, 29 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; of the 24 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; of the 17 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 35%; BTTS occurs in 66% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 66% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 45%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bolton 52% versus Peterborough 65%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bolton 53% | Peterborough 68%). Note also that Peterborough surrender HT leads in 25% of cases while Bolton recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 44% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bolton 2.17 xG and Peterborough 1.90 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bolton attack 1.149 / defence 1.270 | Peterborough attack 1.225 / defence 1.431. League average goals — home 1.318 / away 1.222. Peterborough's defence rating of 1.431 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Bolton's projected output up. Peterborough have an above-average attack rating of 1.225, which lifts their away xG to 1.90. Bolton's defence rating of 1.270 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Peterborough's projected output up. Data: built from Bolton's last 57 games and Peterborough's last 59.
Result probabilities: Bolton 45% | Draw 20% | Peterborough 35%. Fair-value odds: Bolton 2.23 | Draw 4.91 | Peterborough 2.88. Bolton hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (20%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 77% | BTTS Yes probability 75% | Total xG 4.07. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 77% — a total xG of 4.07 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 75% — both xG figures (2.17 / 1.90) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Bolton are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 4.07 combined xG gives a 77% probability to Over 2.5 — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Bolton's last 10 home games and Peterborough's last 10 away games) averaging 3.3 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.5 goals per game across 4 H2H matches.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 75%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Bolton 50% (last 10 home games) | Peterborough 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bolton vs Peterborough | Competition: League One, matchday 14 | Venue: Toughsheet Community Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 26 October 2024 at 16:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bolton 45% | Draw 20% | Peterborough 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 77% (Under 23%) | BTTS Yes 75% (No 25%) | xG Bolton 2.17 / Peterborough 1.90 • Poisson strength factors: Bolton attack 1.149 / def 1.270 | Peterborough attack 1.225 / def 1.431 | league avg home 1.318 / away 1.222 • Poisson stance: Bolton (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.17
Bolton xG
Expected Goals
1.90
Peterborough xG
75%
BTTS
91%
Over 1.5
77%
Over 2.5
58%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Bolton vs Peterborough FAQs
What time does Bolton vs Peterborough kick off?
Bolton vs Peterborough kicked off at 16:00 UK time on Saturday 26 October 2024 at Toughsheet Community Stadium.
What was the final score in Bolton vs Peterborough?
Bolton 1 - 0 Peterborough.
Where is Bolton vs Peterborough being played?
The match is being played at Toughsheet Community Stadium.
What competition is Bolton vs Peterborough part of?
Bolton vs Peterborough is a League One fixture (matchday 14) (England).
Who is favourite to win Bolton vs Peterborough?
Our statistical model gives Bolton a 45% chance of winning, Peterborough a 35% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Bolton the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bolton vs Peterborough?
Our model estimates a 75% probability that both Bolton and Peterborough will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Bolton vs Peterborough have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 77%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Bolton's attacking strength (1.15x league average) is weighed against Peterborough's defensive record (1.43x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.17. Flip it around — Peterborough's attack (1.23x) against Bolton's defence (1.27x) — and the away total comes out at 1.90.
These ratings are built from Bolton's last 57 games and Peterborough's last 59 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 8.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (7.6%), 2-2 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 23% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Bolton Win
45%
2.23
20%
4.91
35%
2.88
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
7.6%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 2
7.3%
Draw
1 – 1
7.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.17
Bolton xG
Total xG
4.07
1.90
Peterborough xG
2.23
45%
Home win
4.91
20%
Draw
2.88
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
91%
Over 1.5
1.10
9%
Under 1.5
11.11
77%
Over 2.5
1.30
23%
Under 2.5
4.35
58%
Over 3.5
1.72
42%
Under 3.5
2.38
38%
Over 4.5
2.63
62%
Under 4.5
1.61
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
75%
BTTS Yes
1.33
25%
BTTS No
4.05
Clean Sheet
15%
6.69
11%
8.73
Win to Nil
7%
14.91
4%
25.14
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.7 | 3.3 | 3.1 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 3.7 | 7.0 | 6.7 | 4.2 | 2.0 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4.0 | 7.6 | 7.3 | 4.6 | 2.2 | 0.8 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 5.5 | 5.2 | 3.3 | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 3.0 | 2.8 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Bolton vs Peterborough Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Bolton vs Peterborough?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.0%.
How many goals are Bolton and Peterborough expected to score?
The model projects 2.17 expected goals for Bolton and 1.90 for Peterborough, a combined total of 4.07.
How confident is the prediction model for Bolton vs Peterborough?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 60 outings, Bolton have picked up 1.78 PPG on a 31W 14D 15L record — W-W-D-W-L across the most recent five.
Peterborough's form line: 29W 13D 18L from 60 games, 1.67 PPG, last five L-W-D-L-W.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.78 PPG for Bolton against 1.67 for Peterborough. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Bolton have posted 1.79 PPG from their last 29 home games (15W 7D 7L).
On the road, Peterborough have gone 13W 5D 11L from their last 29 away games — 1.52 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Bolton are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; Peterborough are on 1.90 scored and 1.47 conceded. Both sides have been scoring freely, which tends to support the goals markets running hot in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Peterborough in 65%.
Last 60 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bolton
Blended
Peterborough
Blended
Bolton (Home) vs Peterborough (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Bolton
Blended
Peterborough
Blended
❓ Bolton vs Peterborough Form FAQs
What form are Bolton and Peterborough in coming into this match?
Bolton have gone 31W 14D 15L in their last 60 games (1.78 PPG), while Peterborough have gone 29W 13D 18L in their last 60 (1.67 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bolton at home or Peterborough away?
Bolton's home record (1.79 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bolton at home: 1.79 PPG; Peterborough away: 1.52 PPG.
Have Bolton or Peterborough been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bolton have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Peterborough in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 8 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to September 2022 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in League One. The most recent was on 10 January 2026, roughly 10 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Bolton won Peterborough 0-5 Bolton on 11 Feb 2023, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Bolton have gone 3W 1D 0L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Peterborough — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Bolton
3
Draws
1
Peterborough
Recent Meetings
❓ Bolton vs Peterborough H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Bolton and Peterborough?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Bolton have won 4, Peterborough have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Bolton and Peterborough last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 10 January 2026: Peterborough 3-1 Bolton.
Who has won more matches between Bolton and Peterborough?
Bolton have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Bolton are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 44% of those situations.
Peterborough are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 30% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bolton 59%, Peterborough 66% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 62% for Bolton and 66% for Peterborough. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 45% and 41% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bolton home games / Peterborough away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Bolton vs Peterborough Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Bolton and Peterborough matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of Bolton's games and 66% of Peterborough's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Bolton and Peterborough matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Bolton's matches and 66% of Peterborough's.
Do Bolton and Peterborough matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 83% of Bolton's recent matches and 69% of Peterborough's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Bolton edge out Peterborough 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bolton beat Peterborough 1-0 at Toughsheet Community Stadium, Regular Season - 14, in the League One. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bolton 2.17 xG and Peterborough 1.90 xG, a combined 4.07. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Bolton fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Peterborough landed 1.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bolton attack 1.15 / defence 1.27 against Peterborough attack 1.23 / defence 1.43, drawn from 57/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bolton 45% | Draw 20% | Peterborough 35%, with Bolton to win its most likely call at 45%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 77%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 91% and missed. Over 3.5 was 58% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 75% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bolton 53%, Peterborough 68%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bolton's trading profile (60 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
Peterborough's trading profile (60 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bolton 1.78 PPG, Peterborough 1.67 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bolton win broke the near-deadlock. Bolton (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.97 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.45 average — tighter than their form line. Peterborough (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.52 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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