Bolton 2-1 Charlton – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bolton at 56%, yet other data sources diverge — this Bolton vs Charlton fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a League One clash, Regular Season - 32 as Bolton welcome Charlton to University of Bolton Stadium. Kick-off is set for Tuesday 8 February 2022 at 20:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Bolton stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 League One matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W W W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Bolton's home record at University of Bolton Stadium: 6W 2D 2L from 10 League One appearances (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at University of Bolton Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Bolton are significantly better at University of Bolton Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Across all League One games this season, Charlton have recorded 5W 1D 4L from 10 outings — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L D W W W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Charlton's away record: 4W 2D 4L from 10 road trips in League One this season (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Bolton 1.40 PPG, Charlton 1.60 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Bolton, 0 for Charlton and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 5.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 28 Sep 2021, ended 4–1 with Bolton winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Bolton trading profile (29 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
Charlton trading profile (29 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bolton 34% versus Charlton 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bolton 48% | Charlton 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bolton 1.72 xG and Charlton 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bolton attack 1.343 / defence 0.978 | Charlton attack 0.775 / defence 1.178. League average goals — home 1.088 / away 1.238. Bolton carry an above-average attack strength of 1.343 — their λ of 1.72 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 29 Bolton games / 29 Charlton games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bolton 56% | Draw 24% | Charlton 20%. Fair-value odds: Bolton 1.79 | Draw 4.17 | Charlton 5.00. The model has a clear lean to Bolton (56%) — a 36pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.66. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.66 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Bolton are the pick at 56% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.66 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 50% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 50%. Form rates corroborate: Bolton 30% | Charlton 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bolton vs Charlton | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: University of Bolton Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 8 Feb 2022, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bolton 56% | Draw 24% | Charlton 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 50% | xG Bolton 1.72 / Charlton 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: Bolton attack 1.343 / def 0.978 | Charlton attack 0.775 / def 1.178 | league avg home 1.088 / away 1.238 • Poisson stance: Bolton (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.72
Bolton xG
Expected Goals
0.94
Charlton xG
50%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bolton vs Charlton kick off?
Bolton vs Charlton kicked off at 20:00 on Tuesday 8 February 2022 at University of Bolton Stadium.
What was the final score in Bolton vs Charlton?
Bolton 2 - 1 Charlton.
Where is Bolton vs Charlton being played?
The match is being played at University of Bolton Stadium.
What competition is Bolton vs Charlton part of?
Bolton vs Charlton is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Bolton vs Charlton?
Our statistical model gives Bolton a 56% chance of winning, Charlton a 20% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Bolton the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bolton vs Charlton?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Bolton and Charlton will score (BTTS).
Will Bolton vs Charlton have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bolton and Charlton?
Record (1 meetings): Bolton 1W | Draws 0 | Charlton 0W.
What form are Bolton and Charlton in?
Bolton (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-W-W-D. Charlton (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Bolton's attacking strength (1.34x league average) is weighed against Charlton's defensive record (1.18x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.72. The same calculation in reverse, Charlton's attack versus Bolton's defence, projects 0.94 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 29/29 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.8%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.6%), 2-0 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bolton Win
56%
1.79
24%
4.21
20%
4.90
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
2 – 0
10.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.72
Bolton xG
Total xG
2.66
0.94
Charlton xG
1.79
56%
Home win
4.21
24%
Draw
4.90
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.00
50%
BTTS No
2.00
Clean Sheet
39%
2.55
18%
5.59
Win to Nil
22%
4.57
4%
27.42
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 6.6 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 12.1 | 11.3 | 5.3 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.4 | 9.7 | 4.6 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.0 | 5.6 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.6 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bolton vs Charlton?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Bolton and Charlton expected to score?
The model projects 1.72 expected goals for Bolton and 0.94 for Charlton, a combined total of 2.66.
How confident is the prediction model for Bolton vs Charlton?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 29 outings, Bolton have picked up 1.34 PPG on a 11W 6D 12L record — W-W-W-W-D across the most recent five.
Charlton's form line: 11W 6D 12L from 29 games, 1.34 PPG, last five L-D-W-W-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: Bolton on 1.34 PPG, Charlton on 1.34. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Bolton have posted 1.79 PPG from 14 outings (7W 4D 3L). That's noticeably better than their 1.34 PPG overall — Bolton are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Charlton have gone 4W 3D 7L from 14 away games — 1.07 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bolton come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Bolton are averaging 1.45 goals scored and 1.31 conceded per game recently; Charlton are on 1.34 scored and 1.21 conceded.
Last 29 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bolton
Current Season
Charlton
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bolton and Charlton in coming into this match?
Bolton have gone 11W 6D 12L in their last 29 games (1.34 PPG), while Charlton have gone 11W 6D 12L in their last 29 (1.34 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bolton at home or Charlton away?
Bolton's home record (1.79 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bolton at home: 1.79 PPG; Charlton away: 1.07 PPG.
Have Bolton or Charlton been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bolton have kept a clean sheet in 28% of their recent games, Charlton in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. It has been a while since the last meeting — 21 January 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Charlton have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 28 Sep 2021, when Bolton won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Bolton's record when hosting Charlton specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Bolton
1
Draws
2
Charlton
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bolton and Charlton?
From 8 meetings on record, Bolton have won 5, Charlton have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Bolton and Charlton last play each other?
They last met on 21 January 2025, when Bolton 1-2 Charlton.
Who has won more matches between Bolton and Charlton?
Bolton have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Bolton are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Charlton are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bolton 36%, Charlton 71% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Bolton) and 57% (Charlton). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 36% and 7% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Bolton keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; Bolton have failed to score in 29% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bolton home games / Charlton away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bolton play Charlton?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 36% of Bolton's recent matches and 71% of Charlton's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Bolton vs Charlton usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 57% of Bolton's matches and 57% of Charlton's.
Do Bolton and Charlton tend to score early?
Bolton have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Charlton in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Bolton edge out Charlton 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bolton beat Charlton 2-1 at University of Bolton Stadium, Regular Season - 32, in the League One. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bolton 1.72 xG and Charlton 0.94 xG, a combined 2.66. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bolton attack 1.34 / defence 0.98 against Charlton attack 0.78 / defence 1.18, drawn from 29/29 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bolton 56% | Draw 24% | Charlton 20%, with Bolton to win its most likely call at 56%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bolton 48%, Charlton 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bolton's trading profile (29 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 34% of their matches — today it did.
Charlton's trading profile (29 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bolton 1.34 PPG, Charlton 1.34 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bolton win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.