Bolton 0-0 Burton Albion – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bolton at 53%, yet other data sources diverge — this Bolton vs Burton Albion fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Bolton and Burton Albion meet at University of Bolton Stadium in League One, Regular Season - 6. This fixture gets under way on Monday 6 September 2021 at 20:00 UTC.
Current Form
Bolton's overall League One record this term: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: D D W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 5 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Bolton have played only a handful of League One games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Burton Albion have collected 2.00 PPG across 5 League One outings this season: 3W 1D 1L. Last five: W W W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets in 5 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Burton Albion have played only a handful of League One games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.60 PPG for Bolton against 2.00 for Burton Albion. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Trading & In-Play
Bolton — key trading statistics (5 games): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games; Over 3.5 in 40%.
Burton Albion — key trading statistics (5 games): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bolton 60% versus Burton Albion 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bolton 60% | Burton Albion 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bolton 1.59 xG and Burton Albion 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bolton attack 1.207 / defence 1.379 | Burton Albion attack 0.747 / defence 1.262. League average goals — home 1.045 / away 0.897. Burton Albion bring a strong defensive rating of 1.262 — this is suppressing Bolton's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 5 Bolton games / 5 Burton Albion games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bolton 53% | Draw 25% | Burton Albion 22%. Fair-value odds: Bolton 1.89 | Draw 4.00 | Burton Albion 4.55. Bolton hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.52. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.52 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Bolton are the pick at 53% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Bolton if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.52 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 46% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 48% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Bolton 60% | Burton Albion 40%.
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🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bolton vs Burton Albion | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: University of Bolton Stadium • Kick-off: Monday 6 Sep 2021, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bolton 53% | Draw 25% | Burton Albion 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 48% | xG Bolton 1.59 / Burton Albion 0.93 • Poisson strength factors: Bolton attack 1.207 / def 1.379 | Burton Albion attack 0.747 / def 1.262 | league avg home 1.045 / away 0.897 • Poisson stance: Bolton (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.59
Bolton xG
Expected Goals
0.93
Burton Albion xG
48%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bolton vs Burton Albion kick off?
Bolton vs Burton Albion kicked off at 20:00 on Monday 6 September 2021 at University of Bolton Stadium.
What was the final score in Bolton vs Burton Albion?
Bolton 0 - 0 Burton Albion.
Where is Bolton vs Burton Albion being played?
The match is being played at University of Bolton Stadium.
What competition is Bolton vs Burton Albion part of?
Bolton vs Burton Albion is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Bolton vs Burton Albion?
Our statistical model gives Bolton a 53% chance of winning, Burton Albion a 22% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Bolton the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bolton vs Burton Albion?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Bolton and Burton Albion will score (BTTS).
Will Bolton vs Burton Albion have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bolton and Burton Albion?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Bolton and Burton Albion in?
Bolton (all comps): 2W-2D-1L in 5 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-D-W-W-L. Burton Albion (all comps): 3W-1D-1L in 5 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Bolton's attacking strength (1.21x league average) is weighed against Burton Albion's defensive record (1.26x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.59. Flip it around — Burton Albion's attack (0.75x) against Bolton's defence (1.38x) — and the away total comes out at 0.93.
These ratings are built from 5/5 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.4%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.3%), 2-0 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bolton Win
53%
1.89
25%
3.98
22%
4.57
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
2 – 0
10.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.59
Bolton xG
Total xG
2.52
0.93
Burton Albion xG
1.89
53%
Home win
3.98
25%
Draw
4.57
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.08
52%
BTTS No
1.93
Clean Sheet
40%
2.52
20%
4.91
Win to Nil
21%
4.76
4%
22.45
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.1 | 7.5 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 12.8 | 11.9 | 5.5 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.2 | 9.5 | 4.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.4 | 5.0 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bolton vs Burton Albion?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Bolton and Burton Albion expected to score?
The model projects 1.59 expected goals for Bolton and 0.93 for Burton Albion, a combined total of 2.52.
How confident is the prediction model for Bolton vs Burton Albion?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Bolton's recent record stands at 2W 2D 1L from 5 games, a 1.60 PPG return, with D-D-W-W-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Bolton, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Burton Albion, meanwhile, have gone 3W 1D 1L across 5 games — 2.00 PPG, with W-W-W-L-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for Burton Albion, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.60 PPG for Bolton against 2.00 for Burton Albion. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Attack vs Defence
Bolton are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game recently; Burton Albion are on 1.00 scored and 1.00 conceded. Bolton's scoring rate against Burton Albion's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
On BTTS specifically: Bolton have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Defensively: Burton Albion in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 5 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bolton
Early Season
Burton Albion
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bolton and Burton Albion in coming into this match?
Bolton have gone 2W 2D 1L in their last 5 games (1.60 PPG), while Burton Albion have gone 3W 1D 1L in their last 5 (2.00 PPG).
Have Bolton or Burton Albion been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bolton have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, Burton Albion in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. They last met on 27 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Burton Albion won 3-0 on 11 Oct 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Bolton have gone 4W 1D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Burton Albion — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Bolton
3
Draws
2
Burton Albion
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bolton and Burton Albion?
From 10 meetings on record, Bolton have won 5, Burton Albion have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Bolton and Burton Albion last play each other?
They last met on 27 January 2026, when Bolton 2-1 Burton Albion.
Who has won more matches between Bolton and Burton Albion?
Bolton have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Bolton are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches.
Burton Albion are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bolton 60%, Burton Albion 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Bolton) and 40% (Burton Albion).
On the defensive side: Burton Albion in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bolton home games / Burton Albion away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bolton play Burton Albion?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of Bolton's recent matches and 40% of Burton Albion's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Bolton vs Burton Albion usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of Bolton's recent games and 40% of Burton Albion's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bolton and Burton Albion tend to score early?
Bolton have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Burton Albion in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Bolton's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at University of Bolton Stadium, Regular Season - 6, as Bolton and Burton Albion drew 0-0 in the League One. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bolton 1.59 xG and Burton Albion 0.93 xG, a combined 2.52. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Bolton fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Burton Albion landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bolton attack 1.21 / defence 1.38 against Burton Albion attack 0.75 / defence 1.26, drawn from 5/5 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bolton 53% | Draw 25% | Burton Albion 22%, with Bolton to win its most likely call at 53%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bolton 60%, Burton Albion 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bolton's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Burton Albion's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bolton 1.60 PPG, Burton Albion 2.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Bolton managed 0 against a 1.80 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.60 average — tighter than their form line. Burton Albion managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.