Bolton 1-0 Bradford – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bolton at 56%, yet other data sources diverge — this Bolton vs Bradford fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Bolton host Bradford at Toughsheet Community Stadium in League One, Semi-finals. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 9 May 2026 at 20:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all League One games this season, Bolton have gone 2W 5D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: L W D D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Bolton's form when playing at home: 5W 4D 1L across 10 games at Toughsheet Community Stadium this term (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Bolton are significantly better at Toughsheet Community Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Bradford — All Games: 3W 4D 3L from 10 League One fixtures this season — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L D D D W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Bradford away from home this season: 3W 1D 6L from 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Bolton at 1.10 PPG versus Bradford's 1.30. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Bolton have won 0, Bradford 0, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 2 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 25 Apr 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Bolton in-play and half-time data (92 games, 46 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games).
Bradford in-play and half-time data (92 games, 46 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bolton 61% versus Bradford 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bolton 53% | Bradford 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bolton 2.15 xG and Bradford 1.33 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bolton attack 1.358 / defence 1.185 | Bradford attack 0.910 / defence 1.162. League average goals — home 1.362 / away 1.238. Bolton carry an above-average attack strength of 1.358 — their λ of 2.15 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 92 Bolton games / 46 Bradford games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bolton 56% | Draw 21% | Bradford 23%. Fair-value odds: Bolton 1.79 | Draw 4.76 | Bradford 4.35. The model has a clear lean to Bolton (56%) — a 33pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 68% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.48. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 68% — a total xG of 3.48 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (2.15 / 1.33) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Bolton as the most likely outcome at 56% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.48 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 68% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 65% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Bolton 90% | Bradford 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bolton vs Bradford | Competition: League One, Semi-finals | Venue: Toughsheet Community Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 9 May 2026, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bolton 56% | Draw 21% | Bradford 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 68% | BTTS 65% | xG Bolton 2.15 / Bradford 1.33 • Poisson strength factors: Bolton attack 1.358 / def 1.185 | Bradford attack 0.910 / def 1.162 | league avg home 1.362 / away 1.238 • Poisson stance: Bolton (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.15
Bolton xG
Expected Goals
1.33
Bradford xG
65%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
68%
Over 2.5
46%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bolton vs Bradford kick off?
Bolton vs Bradford kicked off at 20:00 on Saturday 9 May 2026 at Toughsheet Community Stadium.
What was the final score in Bolton vs Bradford?
Bolton 1 - 0 Bradford.
Where is Bolton vs Bradford being played?
The match is being played at Toughsheet Community Stadium.
What competition is Bolton vs Bradford part of?
Bolton vs Bradford is a Semi-finals fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Bolton vs Bradford?
Our statistical model gives Bolton a 56% chance of winning, Bradford a 23% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Bolton the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bolton vs Bradford?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Bolton and Bradford will score (BTTS).
Will Bolton vs Bradford have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 68%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bolton and Bradford?
Record (2 meetings): Bolton 0W | Draws 2 | Bradford 0W.
What form are Bolton and Bradford in?
Bolton (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-D-D-L. Bradford (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Bolton's attack rating (1.36) and Bradford's defence rating (1.16), the model arrives at 2.15 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Bradford's attack versus Bolton's defence, projects 1.33 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 92/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 2-0 (7.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Bolton Win
56%
1.78
21%
4.86
23%
4.29
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.8%
Draw
2 – 0
7.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.15
Bolton xG
Total xG
3.48
1.33
Bradford xG
1.78
56%
Home win
4.86
21%
Draw
4.29
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
68%
Over 2.5
1.47
32%
Under 2.5
3.12
46%
Over 3.5
2.17
54%
Under 3.5
1.85
27%
Over 4.5
3.70
73%
Under 4.5
1.37
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.54
35%
BTTS No
2.86
Clean Sheet
26%
3.80
12%
8.58
Win to Nil
15%
6.77
3%
36.83
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.1 | 4.1 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 6.6 | 8.8 | 5.9 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 9.5 | 6.3 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.1 | 6.8 | 4.5 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.7 | 3.6 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bolton vs Bradford?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.9%.
How many goals are Bolton and Bradford expected to score?
The model projects 2.15 expected goals for Bolton and 1.33 for Bradford, a combined total of 3.48.
How confident is the prediction model for Bolton vs Bradford?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Bolton come into this having played 92 games, going 39W 26D 27L for 1.55 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-D-D-L.
On the other side, Bradford sit at 1.68 PPG from 92 outings (44W 23D 25L), a run that reads L-D-D-D-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Bolton on 1.55 PPG, Bradford on 1.68. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Bolton's home form reads 24W 12D 10L across 46 games on their own ground, a 1.83 PPG return.
Away from home, Bradford have taken 1.09 points per game from 46 outings (12W 14D 20L). That's a step down from their 1.68 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Bradford's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bolton come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Bolton are averaging 1.49 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Bradford are on 1.33 scored and 1.04 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Bolton have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Last 92 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bolton
Current Season
Bradford
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bolton and Bradford in coming into this match?
Bolton have gone 39W 26D 27L in their last 92 games (1.55 PPG), while Bradford have gone 44W 23D 25L in their last 92 (1.68 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bolton at home or Bradford away?
Bolton's home record (1.83 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bolton at home: 1.83 PPG; Bradford away: 1.09 PPG.
Have Bolton or Bradford been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bolton have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, Bradford in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. They last met on 14 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Bolton go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Bolton's record when hosting Bradford specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Bolton
2
Draws
0
Bradford
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bolton and Bradford?
From 4 meetings on record, Bolton have won 2, Bradford have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Bolton and Bradford last play each other?
They last met on 14 May 2026, when Bradford 0-1 Bolton.
Who has won more matches between Bolton and Bradford?
Bolton have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Bolton are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Bradford are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bolton 61%, Bradford 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 63% (Bolton) and 54% (Bradford). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 37% and 17% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Bradford in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bolton home games / Bradford away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bolton play Bradford?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of Bolton's games and 61% of Bradford's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Bolton vs Bradford usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 63% of Bolton's matches and 54% of Bradford's.
Do Bolton and Bradford tend to score early?
Bolton have had a goal before half-time in 63% of their recent matches, Bradford in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Bolton edge out Bradford 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bolton beat Bradford 1-0 at Toughsheet Community Stadium, Semi-finals, in the League One. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bolton 2.15 xG and Bradford 1.33 xG, a combined 3.48. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Bolton fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Bradford landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bolton attack 1.36 / defence 1.19 against Bradford attack 0.91 / defence 1.16, drawn from 92/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bolton 56% | Draw 21% | Bradford 23%, with Bolton to win its most likely call at 56%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 68%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 86% and missed. Over 3.5 was 46% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bolton 53%, Bradford 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bolton's trading profile (92 games, 46 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.
Bradford's trading profile (92 games, 46 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bolton 1.55 PPG, Bradford 1.68 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bolton win broke the near-deadlock. Bolton (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.22 average — tighter than their form line. Bradford (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.11 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.