Accrington ST 1-2 Gillingham – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Accrington ST at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this Accrington ST vs Gillingham fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A League One encounter, Regular Season - 40 sees Gillingham travel to Wham Stadium to take on Accrington ST. The game is scheduled for Saturday 26 March 2022, 15:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Accrington ST stand at 4W 1D 5L from 10 League One matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W L W D L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Accrington ST at Wham Stadium this season: 6W 3D 1L from 10 home games — 2.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Accrington ST are significantly better at Wham Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Across all League One games this season, Gillingham have recorded 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W L W L D. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
On the road, Gillingham have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.30 PPG (Accrington ST) versus 1.20 (Gillingham). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Accrington ST, 0 for Gillingham and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 0.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 30 Oct 2021, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Accrington ST in-play tendencies (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Gillingham in-play tendencies (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 26% of games (away games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Accrington ST 53% versus Gillingham 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Accrington ST 53% | Gillingham 32%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Accrington ST 1.65 xG and Gillingham 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Accrington ST attack 1.281 / defence 1.213 | Gillingham attack 0.714 / defence 1.149. League average goals — home 1.118 / away 1.175. Accrington ST carry an above-average attack strength of 1.281 — their λ of 1.65 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 38 Accrington ST games / 39 Gillingham games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Accrington ST 51% | Draw 27% | Gillingham 22%. Fair-value odds: Accrington ST 1.96 | Draw 3.70 | Gillingham 4.55. Accrington ST hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.66. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.66 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Accrington ST are the pick at 51% — moderate model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Accrington ST offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.66 combined xG gives a 50% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Accrington ST 60% | Gillingham 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Accrington ST vs Gillingham | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 40 | Venue: Wham Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 26 Mar 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Accrington ST 51% | Draw 27% | Gillingham 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 53% | xG Accrington ST 1.65 / Gillingham 1.02 • Poisson strength factors: Accrington ST attack 1.281 / def 1.213 | Gillingham attack 0.714 / def 1.149 | league avg home 1.118 / away 1.175 • Poisson stance: Accrington ST (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.65
Accrington ST xG
Expected Goals
1.02
Gillingham xG
53%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Accrington ST vs Gillingham kick off?
Accrington ST vs Gillingham kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 26 March 2022 at Wham Stadium.
What was the final score in Accrington ST vs Gillingham?
Accrington ST 1 - 2 Gillingham.
Where is Accrington ST vs Gillingham being played?
The match is being played at Wham Stadium.
What competition is Accrington ST vs Gillingham part of?
Accrington ST vs Gillingham is a Regular Season - 40 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Accrington ST vs Gillingham?
Our statistical model gives Accrington ST a 51% chance of winning, Gillingham a 22% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Accrington ST the favourite.
Will both teams score in Accrington ST vs Gillingham?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Accrington ST and Gillingham will score (BTTS).
Will Accrington ST vs Gillingham have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Accrington ST and Gillingham?
Record (1 meetings): Accrington ST 0W | Draws 1 | Gillingham 0W.
What form are Accrington ST and Gillingham in?
Accrington ST (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-L-W-D-L. Gillingham (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-L-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Accrington ST's attack at 1.28x the league average against Gillingham's defence at 1.15x — combine the two and it projects 1.65 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Gillingham's attack versus Accrington ST's defence, projects 1.02 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 38/39 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (10.0%), 2-1 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Accrington ST Win
51%
1.97
27%
3.66
22%
4.55
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.5%
Home win
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.65
Accrington ST xG
Total xG
2.66
1.02
Gillingham xG
1.97
51%
Home win
3.66
27%
Draw
4.55
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.12
Clean Sheet
36%
2.76
19%
5.19
Win to Nil
18%
5.46
4%
23.58
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 7.1 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.5 | 11.7 | 5.9 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.4 | 9.6 | 4.9 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.2 | 5.3 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Accrington ST vs Gillingham?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Accrington ST and Gillingham expected to score?
The model projects 1.65 expected goals for Accrington ST and 1.02 for Gillingham, a combined total of 2.66.
How confident is the prediction model for Accrington ST vs Gillingham?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Accrington ST come into this having played 38 games, going 14W 8D 16L for 1.32 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-D-L.
On the other side, Gillingham sit at 0.87 PPG from 38 outings (7W 12D 19L), a run that reads W-L-W-L-D across their last five.
Accrington ST carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.45 PPG clear of Gillingham — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Accrington ST's home form reads 11W 4D 4L across 19 games on their own ground, a 1.95 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.32 PPG overall — Accrington ST are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Gillingham have taken 0.84 points per game from 19 outings (3W 7D 9L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Accrington ST come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Accrington ST are averaging 1.24 goals scored and 1.66 conceded per game recently; Gillingham are on 0.74 scored and 1.53 conceded.
Last 38 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Accrington ST
Current Season
Gillingham
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Accrington ST and Gillingham in coming into this match?
Accrington ST have gone 14W 8D 16L in their last 38 games (1.32 PPG), while Gillingham have gone 7W 12D 19L in their last 38 (0.87 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Accrington ST at home or Gillingham away?
Accrington ST's home record (1.95 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Accrington ST at home: 1.95 PPG; Gillingham away: 0.84 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — League One, League Two all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 6 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Accrington ST's record when hosting Gillingham specifically: 0W 2D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Accrington ST
3
Draws
4
Gillingham
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Accrington ST and Gillingham?
From 8 meetings on record, Accrington ST have won 1, Gillingham have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Accrington ST and Gillingham last play each other?
They last met on 6 April 2026, when Gillingham 2-0 Accrington ST.
Who has won more matches between Accrington ST and Gillingham?
Gillingham have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Accrington ST are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Gillingham are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 21% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Accrington ST 68%, Gillingham 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Accrington ST) and 26% (Gillingham).
On the defensive side: Gillingham in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Accrington ST home games / Gillingham away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Accrington ST play Gillingham?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 68% of Accrington ST's games and 53% of Gillingham's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Accrington ST vs Gillingham usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 58% of Accrington ST's recent games and 26% of Gillingham's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Accrington ST and Gillingham tend to score early?
Accrington ST have had a goal before half-time in 84% of their recent matches, Gillingham in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Gillingham defy the odds to beat Accrington ST 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Gillingham beat Accrington ST 1-2 at Wham Stadium, Regular Season - 40, in the League One. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Accrington ST 1.65 xG and Gillingham 1.02 xG, a combined 2.66. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Gillingham outscored their 1.02 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Accrington ST attack 1.28 / defence 1.21 against Gillingham attack 0.71 / defence 1.15, drawn from 38/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Accrington ST 51% | Draw 27% | Gillingham 22%, with Accrington ST to win its most likely call at 51%. Instead the game produced a Gillingham win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Accrington ST 53%, Gillingham 32%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Accrington ST's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Gillingham's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Accrington ST arrived the stronger side — 1.32 PPG against 0.87. Form was overturned, with Gillingham winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Gillingham (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.89 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.