West Brom 3-1 Burnley – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates West Brom at 45% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this West Brom vs Burnley encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Burnley make the trip to The Hawthorns to face West Brom in Championship, Regular Season - 2. The match kicks off on Sunday 23 August 2026 at 11:00 UTC.
Current Form
West Brom's overall Championship record this term: 5W 4D 1L from 10 games (1.90 PPG). Last five: W W D L W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 0.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.50 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. West Brom have played only a handful of Championship games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, West Brom have posted 2W 6D 2L at The Hawthorns — 1.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at The Hawthorns. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.20 lags behind their overall 1.90 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at The Hawthorns this season.
Burnley have collected 0.40 PPG across 10 Championship outings this season: 0W 4D 6L. Last five: L D L D D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Burnley have played only a handful of Championship games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Burnley's form when playing away from home: 1W 2D 7L across 10 road games this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Form favours the hosts. West Brom's 1.90 PPG return is 1.50 points per game ahead of Burnley's 0.40 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — West Brom lead 0W to 1W over the last 4 encounters, with 3 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.8 per game from 4 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 11 Mar 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.8 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
West Brom — key trading statistics (39 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Burnley — key trading statistics (39 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 74% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%; they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — West Brom 51% versus Burnley 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (West Brom 51% | Burnley 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects West Brom 1.52 xG and Burnley 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: West Brom attack 0.992 / defence 0.924 | Burnley attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.330 / away 1.304. Data: 47 West Brom games / 1 Burnley games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: West Brom 45% | Draw 32% | Burnley 22%. Fair-value odds: West Brom 2.22 | Draw 3.12 | Burnley 4.55. West Brom hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (32%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.54. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.54 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates West Brom as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on West Brom if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.54 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 47% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 1.8 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: West Brom 30% | Burnley 60%.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: West Brom vs Burnley | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: The Hawthorns • Kick-off: Sunday 23 Aug 2026, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: West Brom 45% | Draw 32% | Burnley 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 53% | xG West Brom 1.52 / Burnley 1.02 • Poisson strength factors: West Brom attack 0.992 / def 0.924 | Burnley attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.330 / away 1.304 • Poisson stance: West Brom (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.52
West Brom xG
Expected Goals
1.02
Burnley xG
53%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does West Brom vs Burnley kick off?
West Brom vs Burnley kicked off at 11:00 on Sunday 23 August 2026 at The Hawthorns.
What was the final score in West Brom vs Burnley?
West Brom 3 - 1 Burnley.
Where is West Brom vs Burnley being played?
The match is being played at The Hawthorns.
What competition is West Brom vs Burnley part of?
West Brom vs Burnley is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win West Brom vs Burnley?
Our statistical model gives West Brom a 45% chance of winning, Burnley a 22% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making West Brom the favourite.
Will both teams score in West Brom vs Burnley?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both West Brom and Burnley will score (BTTS).
Will West Brom vs Burnley have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between West Brom and Burnley?
Record (4 meetings): West Brom 0W | Draws 3 | Burnley 1W.
What form are West Brom and Burnley in?
West Brom (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-W-D-L-W. Burnley (all comps): 0W-4D-6L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-D-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates West Brom's attack at 0.99x the league average against Burnley's defence at 1.15x — combine the two and it projects 1.52 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Burnley's attack (0.85x) against West Brom's defence (0.92x) — and the away total comes out at 1.02.
The sample (47/1 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (10.4%), 0-0 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
West Brom Win
45%
2.21
32%
3.09
22%
4.49
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.0%
Home win
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.52
West Brom xG
Total xG
2.54
1.02
Burnley xG
2.21
45%
Home win
3.09
32%
Draw
4.49
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.87
47%
BTTS No
2.14
Clean Sheet
36%
2.78
22%
4.55
Win to Nil
16%
6.14
5%
20.43
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 8.1 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.0 | 12.2 | 6.3 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.1 | 9.3 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 4.7 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for West Brom vs Burnley?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are West Brom and Burnley expected to score?
The model projects 1.52 expected goals for West Brom and 1.02 for Burnley, a combined total of 2.54.
How confident is the prediction model for West Brom vs Burnley?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
West Brom's recent record stands at 10W 12D 17L from 39 games, a 1.08 PPG return, with W-W-D-L-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for West Brom, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Burnley, meanwhile, have gone 4W 11D 24L across 39 games — 0.59 PPG, with L-D-L-D-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for Burnley, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours West Brom by 0.49 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Burnley heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, West Brom have managed 7W 8D 4L from 19 games — 1.53 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.08 PPG overall — West Brom are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Burnley's away record stands at 2W 3D 14L across 19 trips, a 0.47 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, West Brom come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
West Brom are averaging 1.05 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Burnley are on 1.03 scored and 1.97 conceded.
Last 39 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
West Brom
Early Season
Burnley
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are West Brom and Burnley in coming into this match?
West Brom have gone 10W 12D 17L in their last 39 games (1.08 PPG), while Burnley have gone 4W 11D 24L in their last 39 (0.59 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — West Brom at home or Burnley away?
West Brom's home record (1.53 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — West Brom at home: 1.53 PPG; Burnley away: 0.47 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 5 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. The two were last together as recently as 23 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, West Brom have gone 1W 2D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Burnley — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
1
West Brom
3
Draws
1
Burnley
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between West Brom and Burnley?
From 5 meetings on record, West Brom have won 1, Burnley have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did West Brom and Burnley last play each other?
They last met on 23 August 2026, when West Brom 3-1 Burnley.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
West Brom are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 21% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Burnley are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — West Brom 53%, Burnley 74% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 53% for West Brom and 68% for Burnley. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 21% and 47% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: West Brom keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; West Brom have failed to score in 32% of games; Burnley in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = West Brom home games / Burnley away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when West Brom play Burnley?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 53% of West Brom's games and 74% of Burnley's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is West Brom vs Burnley usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 53% of West Brom's matches and 68% of Burnley's.
Do West Brom and Burnley tend to score early?
West Brom have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Burnley in 84% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
West Brom cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Burnley.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
West Brom beat Burnley 3-1 at The Hawthorns, Regular Season - 2, in the Championship. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting West Brom 1.52 xG and Burnley 1.02 xG, a combined 2.54. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. West Brom beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of West Brom attack 0.99 / defence 0.92 against Burnley attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 47/1 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it West Brom 45% | Draw 32% | Burnley 22%, with West Brom to win its most likely call at 45%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 25% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (West Brom 51%, Burnley 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
West Brom's trading profile (39 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Burnley's trading profile (39 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, West Brom arrived the stronger side — 1.08 PPG against 0.59. Form held, and they took the win. West Brom (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.32 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.