Swansea 0-1 West Ham – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Swansea at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Swansea vs West Ham fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Swansea.com Stadium plays host to Swansea versus West Ham in Championship, Regular Season - 11. Kick-off: Saturday 17 October 2026 at 14:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Swansea have collected 2.30 PPG across 10 Championship outings this season: 7W 2D 1L. Last five: L W W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 0.70 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Swansea, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Swansea's home record at Swansea.com Stadium: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Championship appearances (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
West Ham (all games): 5W 4D 1L across 10 Championship outings this term — 1.90 points per game. Last five: W W D D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.90 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for West Ham, so this record blends games from this season and last.
West Ham's away record: 3W 4D 3L from 10 road trips in Championship this season (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 2.30 for Swansea, 1.90 for West Ham — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Trading
Swansea half-time and goal-timing data (48 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).
West Ham half-time and goal-timing data (48 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Swansea 54% versus West Ham 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Swansea 56% | West Ham 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Swansea 1.57 xG and West Ham 1.36 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Swansea attack 0.953 / defence 0.722 | West Ham attack 1.429 / defence 1.123. League average goals — home 1.465 / away 1.320. West Ham have an above-average attack strength of 1.429 — the away xG of 1.36 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Swansea's defence rating of 0.722 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 56 Swansea games / 10 West Ham games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Swansea 42% | Draw 25% | West Ham 33%. Fair-value odds: Swansea 2.38 | Draw 4.00 | West Ham 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.93. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.93 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Swansea at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Swansea if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.93 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 56% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Swansea 50% | West Ham 50%.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Swansea vs West Ham | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Swansea.com Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 17 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Swansea 42% | Draw 25% | West Ham 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 59% | xG Swansea 1.57 / West Ham 1.36 • Poisson strength factors: Swansea attack 0.953 / def 0.722 | West Ham attack 1.429 / def 1.123 | league avg home 1.465 / away 1.320 • Poisson stance: Swansea (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.57
Swansea xG
Expected Goals
1.36
West Ham xG
59%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Swansea vs West Ham kick off?
Swansea vs West Ham kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 17 October 2026 at Swansea.com Stadium.
What was the final score in Swansea vs West Ham?
Swansea 0 - 1 West Ham.
Where is Swansea vs West Ham being played?
The match is being played at Swansea.com Stadium.
What competition is Swansea vs West Ham part of?
Swansea vs West Ham is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Swansea vs West Ham?
Our statistical model gives Swansea a 42% chance of winning, West Ham a 33% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Swansea the favourite.
Will both teams score in Swansea vs West Ham?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Swansea and West Ham will score (BTTS).
Will Swansea vs West Ham have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Swansea and West Ham?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Swansea and West Ham in?
Swansea (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.70 | L5 L-W-W-W-W. West Ham (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Swansea's attack at 0.95x the league average against West Ham's defence at 1.12x — combine the two and it projects 1.57 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — West Ham's attack (1.43x) against Swansea's defence (0.72x) — and the away total comes out at 1.36.
These ratings are built from 56/10 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 1-2 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Swansea Win
42%
2.37
25%
4.05
33%
3.03
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
1 – 0
8.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.57
Swansea xG
Total xG
2.93
1.36
West Ham xG
2.37
42%
Home win
4.05
25%
Draw
3.03
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.70
41%
BTTS No
2.44
Clean Sheet
26%
3.90
21%
4.80
Win to Nil
11%
9.23
7%
14.53
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 7.3 | 4.9 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.4 | 11.4 | 7.8 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 8.9 | 6.1 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 4.7 | 3.2 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Swansea vs West Ham?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Swansea and West Ham expected to score?
The model projects 1.57 expected goals for Swansea and 1.36 for West Ham, a combined total of 2.93.
How confident is the prediction model for Swansea vs West Ham?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Swansea come into this having played 48 games, going 22W 9D 17L for 1.56 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-W-W. The sample for Swansea is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, West Ham sit at 1.21 PPG from 48 outings (15W 13D 20L), a run that reads W-W-D-D-W across their last five. The sample for West Ham is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.56 PPG for Swansea against 1.21 for West Ham. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Swansea's home form reads 13W 5D 6L across 24 games on their own ground, a 1.83 PPG return.
Away from home, West Ham have taken 1.08 points per game from 24 outings (6W 8D 10L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Swansea come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Swansea are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.23 conceded per game recently; West Ham are on 1.56 scored and 1.60 conceded.
Last 48 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Swansea
Blended
West Ham
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Swansea and West Ham in coming into this match?
Swansea have gone 22W 9D 17L in their last 48 games (1.56 PPG), while West Ham have gone 15W 13D 20L in their last 48 (1.21 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Swansea at home or West Ham away?
Swansea's home record (1.83 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Swansea at home: 1.83 PPG; West Ham away: 1.08 PPG.
Have Swansea or West Ham been keeping clean sheets recently?
Swansea have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, West Ham in 21%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 1 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2026 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. The two were last together as recently as 17 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Last 1 Meetings
0
Swansea
0
Draws
1
West Ham
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Swansea and West Ham?
From 1 meetings on record, Swansea have won 0, West Ham have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Swansea and West Ham last play each other?
They last met on 17 October 2026, when Swansea 0-1 West Ham.
Who has won more matches between Swansea and West Ham?
West Ham have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 1 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Swansea are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
West Ham are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Swansea 54%, West Ham 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Swansea) and 62% (West Ham). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Swansea keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; West Ham in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Swansea home games / West Ham away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Swansea play West Ham?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Swansea's recent matches and 54% of West Ham's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Swansea vs West Ham usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 54% of Swansea's matches and 62% of West Ham's.
Do Swansea and West Ham tend to score early?
Swansea have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, West Ham in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as West Ham defy the odds to beat Swansea 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
West Ham beat Swansea 0-1 at Swansea.com Stadium, Regular Season - 11, in the Championship. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Swansea 1.57 xG and West Ham 1.36 xG, a combined 2.93. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Swansea fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Swansea attack 0.95 / defence 0.72 against West Ham attack 1.43 / defence 1.12, drawn from 56/10 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Swansea 42% | Draw 25% | West Ham 33%, with Swansea to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual West Ham win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 79% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Swansea 56%, West Ham 65%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Swansea's trading profile (48 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
West Ham's trading profile (48 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Swansea 1.56 PPG, West Ham 1.21 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the West Ham win broke the near-deadlock. Swansea (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward. West Ham (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.75 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.