Swansea 2-1 Sunderland – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sunderland at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Swansea vs Sunderland fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Swansea and Sunderland meet at Swansea.com Stadium in Championship, Regular Season - 14. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 8 October 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Form
Swansea (all games): 5W 2D 3L across 10 Championship fixtures this term — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W L W W W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Swansea, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Swansea.com Stadium, Swansea have gone 2W 4D 4L this season (10 games, 1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.00 lags behind their overall 1.70 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Swansea.com Stadium this season.
Sunderland have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Championship outings this season: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: L W D D D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Sunderland, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sunderland's form when playing away from home: 5W 3D 2L across 10 road games this term (1.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.80 exceeds their overall 1.30 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.70 vs 1.30 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Trading Data
Swansea goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (58 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Sunderland goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (58 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Swansea 48% versus Sunderland 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Swansea 52% | Sunderland 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Swansea 1.16 xG and Sunderland 1.35 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Swansea attack 0.940 / defence 1.076 | Sunderland attack 1.161 / defence 1.003. League average goals — home 1.229 / away 1.081. Data: 58 Swansea games / 12 Sunderland games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Swansea 32% | Draw 27% | Sunderland 41%. Fair-value odds: Swansea 3.12 | Draw 3.70 | Sunderland 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.51. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.51 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Sunderland are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sunderland if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.51 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 46% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Swansea 40% | Sunderland 50%.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Swansea vs Sunderland | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Swansea.com Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 8 Oct 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Swansea 32% | Draw 27% | Sunderland 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 51% | xG Swansea 1.16 / Sunderland 1.35 • Poisson strength factors: Swansea attack 0.940 / def 1.076 | Sunderland attack 1.161 / def 1.003 | league avg home 1.229 / away 1.081 • Poisson stance: Sunderland (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.16
Swansea xG
Expected Goals
1.35
Sunderland xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Swansea vs Sunderland kick off?
Swansea vs Sunderland kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 8 October 2022 at Swansea.com Stadium.
What was the final score in Swansea vs Sunderland?
Swansea 2 - 1 Sunderland.
Where is Swansea vs Sunderland being played?
The match is being played at Swansea.com Stadium.
What competition is Swansea vs Sunderland part of?
Swansea vs Sunderland is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Swansea vs Sunderland?
Our statistical model gives Swansea a 32% chance of winning, Sunderland a 41% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Sunderland the favourite.
Will both teams score in Swansea vs Sunderland?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Swansea and Sunderland will score (BTTS).
Will Swansea vs Sunderland have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Swansea and Sunderland?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Swansea and Sunderland in?
Swansea (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-W-W-W. Sunderland (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-W-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Swansea's attacking strength (0.94x league average) is weighed against Sunderland's defensive record (1.00x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.16. Flip it around — Sunderland's attack (1.16x) against Swansea's defence (1.08x) — and the away total comes out at 1.35.
These ratings are built from 58/12 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.4%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.8%), 0-1 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sunderland Win
32%
3.13
27%
3.70
41%
2.44
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.0%
Away win
1 – 0
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.16
Swansea xG
Total xG
2.51
1.35
Sunderland xG
3.13
32%
Home win
3.70
27%
Draw
2.44
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.96
49%
BTTS No
2.04
Clean Sheet
26%
3.86
31%
3.19
Win to Nil
8%
12.10
13%
7.76
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.1 | 11.0 | 7.4 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.4 | 12.7 | 8.6 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 7.4 | 5.0 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 2.8 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Swansea vs Sunderland?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Swansea and Sunderland expected to score?
The model projects 1.16 expected goals for Swansea and 1.35 for Sunderland, a combined total of 2.51.
How confident is the prediction model for Swansea vs Sunderland?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Swansea come into this having played 58 games, going 21W 16D 21L for 1.36 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-W-W. The sample for Swansea is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Sunderland sit at 1.76 PPG from 58 outings (28W 18D 12L), a run that reads L-W-D-D-D across their last five. The sample for Sunderland is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.36 PPG for Swansea against 1.76 for Sunderland. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Swansea's home form reads 11W 8D 9L across 28 games on their own ground, a 1.46 PPG return.
Away from home, Sunderland have taken 1.46 points per game from 28 outings (10W 11D 7L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Swansea are averaging 1.26 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; Sunderland are on 1.64 scored and 1.07 conceded.
Defensively: Sunderland in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 58 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Swansea
Blended
Sunderland
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Swansea and Sunderland in coming into this match?
Swansea have gone 21W 16D 21L in their last 58 games (1.36 PPG), while Sunderland have gone 28W 18D 12L in their last 58 (1.76 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Swansea at home or Sunderland away?
Swansea's home record (1.46 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Swansea at home: 1.46 PPG; Sunderland away: 1.46 PPG.
Have Swansea or Sunderland been keeping clean sheets recently?
Swansea have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Sunderland in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since October 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. It has been a while since the last meeting — 12 April 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Swansea have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Sunderland — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
4
Swansea
1
Draws
1
Sunderland
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Swansea and Sunderland?
From 6 meetings on record, Swansea have won 4, Sunderland have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Swansea and Sunderland last play each other?
They last met on 12 April 2025, when Sunderland 0-1 Swansea.
Who has won more matches between Swansea and Sunderland?
Swansea have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Swansea see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Sunderland are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Swansea 46%, Sunderland 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Swansea) and 61% (Sunderland). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 29% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Swansea keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Sunderland in 32%; Swansea have failed to score in 29% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Swansea home games / Sunderland away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Swansea play Sunderland?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Swansea's recent matches and 54% of Sunderland's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Swansea vs Sunderland usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Swansea's matches and 61% of Sunderland's.
Do Swansea and Sunderland tend to score early?
Swansea have had a goal before half-time in 57% of their recent matches, Sunderland in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Swansea defy the odds to beat Sunderland 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Swansea beat Sunderland 2-1 at Swansea.com Stadium, Regular Season - 14, in the Championship. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Swansea 1.16 xG and Sunderland 1.35 xG, a combined 2.51. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Swansea beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Swansea attack 0.94 / defence 1.08 against Sunderland attack 1.16 / defence 1.00, drawn from 58/12 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Swansea 32% | Draw 27% | Sunderland 41%, with Sunderland to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Swansea win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Swansea 52%, Sunderland 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Swansea's trading profile (58 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Sunderland's trading profile (58 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Swansea 1.36 PPG, Sunderland 1.76 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Swansea win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.