Swansea 3-0 Hull City – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Swansea at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Swansea vs Hull City fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Swansea and Hull City meet at Swansea.com Stadium in Championship, Regular Season - 11. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 17 September 2022 at 12:30 UTC.
Form
Swansea (all games): 2W 3D 5L across 10 Championship fixtures this term — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L L D W L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Swansea, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Swansea's home record at Swansea.com Stadium: 2W 4D 4L from 10 Championship appearances (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Hull City's overall Championship record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: L W L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Hull City, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Hull City's away record: 3W 3D 4L from 10 road trips in Championship this season (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.90 PPG for Swansea against 1.20 for Hull City. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Swansea lead 0W to 1W over the last 2 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game from 2 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 29 Jan 2022, ended 0–2 with Hull City winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Swansea — key trading statistics (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Hull City — key trading statistics (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (away games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Swansea 47% versus Hull City 36%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Swansea 49% | Hull City 36%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Swansea 1.31 xG and Hull City 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Swansea attack 0.763 / defence 1.182 | Hull City attack 0.927 / defence 1.296. League average goals — home 1.329 / away 1.096. Swansea's attack strength of 0.763 is below the league average — the 1.31 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Hull City bring a strong defensive rating of 1.296 — this is suppressing Swansea's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 55 Swansea games / 55 Hull City games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Swansea 39% | Draw 27% | Hull City 34%. Fair-value odds: Swansea 2.56 | Draw 3.70 | Hull City 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.52. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.52 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Swansea as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Swansea if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.52 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 46% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Swansea 50% | Hull City 40%.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Swansea vs Hull City | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Swansea.com Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 17 Sep 2022, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Swansea 39% | Draw 27% | Hull City 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 51% | xG Swansea 1.31 / Hull City 1.20 • Poisson strength factors: Swansea attack 0.763 / def 1.182 | Hull City attack 0.927 / def 1.296 | league avg home 1.329 / away 1.096 • Poisson stance: Swansea (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.31
Swansea xG
Expected Goals
1.20
Hull City xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Swansea vs Hull City kick off?
Swansea vs Hull City kicked off at 12:30 on Saturday 17 September 2022 at Swansea.com Stadium.
What was the final score in Swansea vs Hull City?
Swansea 3 - 0 Hull City.
Where is Swansea vs Hull City being played?
The match is being played at Swansea.com Stadium.
What competition is Swansea vs Hull City part of?
Swansea vs Hull City is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Swansea vs Hull City?
Our statistical model gives Swansea a 39% chance of winning, Hull City a 34% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Swansea the favourite.
Will both teams score in Swansea vs Hull City?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Swansea and Hull City will score (BTTS).
Will Swansea vs Hull City have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Swansea and Hull City?
Record (2 meetings): Swansea 0W | Draws 1 | Hull City 1W.
What form are Swansea and Hull City in?
Swansea (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-D-W-L. Hull City (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Swansea's attack rating (0.76) and Hull City's defence rating (1.30), the model arrives at 1.31 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Hull City's attack (0.93x) against Swansea's defence (1.18x) — and the away total comes out at 1.20.
These ratings are built from 55/55 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.4%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.7%), 1-0 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Swansea Win
39%
2.55
27%
3.72
34%
2.95
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.6%
Home win
0 – 1
9.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.31
Swansea xG
Total xG
2.52
1.20
Hull City xG
2.55
39%
Home win
3.72
27%
Draw
2.95
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.96
49%
BTTS No
2.05
Clean Sheet
30%
3.32
27%
3.72
Win to Nil
12%
8.47
9%
10.98
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.1 | 9.7 | 5.8 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.6 | 12.8 | 7.7 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 8.4 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 3.7 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Swansea vs Hull City?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Swansea and Hull City expected to score?
The model projects 1.31 expected goals for Swansea and 1.20 for Hull City, a combined total of 2.52.
How confident is the prediction model for Swansea vs Hull City?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 55 outings, Swansea have picked up 1.27 PPG on a 18W 16D 21L record — L-L-D-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Swansea is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Hull City's form line: 17W 11D 27L from 55 games, 1.13 PPG, last five L-W-L-L-L. The sample for Hull City is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.27 PPG for Swansea against 1.13 for Hull City. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Swansea have posted 1.41 PPG from 27 outings (10W 8D 9L).
On the road, Hull City have gone 7W 7D 13L from 27 away games — 1.04 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Swansea are averaging 1.18 goals scored and 1.45 conceded per game recently; Hull City are on 0.95 scored and 1.31 conceded.
Last 55 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Swansea
Blended
Hull City
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Swansea and Hull City in coming into this match?
Swansea have gone 18W 16D 21L in their last 55 games (1.27 PPG), while Hull City have gone 17W 11D 27L in their last 55 (1.13 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Swansea at home or Hull City away?
Swansea's home record (1.41 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Swansea at home: 1.41 PPG; Hull City away: 1.04 PPG.
Have Swansea or Hull City been keeping clean sheets recently?
Swansea have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Hull City in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. They last met on 24 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Swansea won 3-0 on 17 Sep 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Swansea have gone 2W 3D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Hull City — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Swansea
4
Draws
3
Hull City
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Swansea and Hull City?
From 10 meetings on record, Swansea have won 3, Hull City have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Swansea and Hull City last play each other?
They last met on 24 January 2026, when Hull City 2-1 Swansea.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Swansea see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time.
Hull City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Swansea 48%, Hull City 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Swansea) and 30% (Hull City).
On the defensive side: Swansea keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Hull City in 37%; Swansea have failed to score in 30% of games; Hull City in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Swansea home games / Hull City away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Swansea play Hull City?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Swansea's recent matches and 33% of Hull City's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Swansea vs Hull City usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Swansea's recent games and 30% of Hull City's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Swansea and Hull City tend to score early?
Swansea have had a goal before half-time in 59% of their recent matches, Hull City in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Swansea run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Hull City.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Swansea beat Hull City 3-0 at Swansea.com Stadium, Regular Season - 11, in the Championship. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Swansea 1.31 xG and Hull City 1.20 xG, a combined 2.52. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Swansea beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Hull City landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Swansea attack 0.76 / defence 1.18 against Hull City attack 0.93 / defence 1.30, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Swansea 39% | Draw 27% | Hull City 34%, with Swansea to win its most likely call at 39%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Swansea 49%, Hull City 36%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Swansea's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Hull City's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 44% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Swansea 1.27 PPG, Hull City 1.13 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Swansea win broke the near-deadlock. Swansea (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.22 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.30 average — tighter than their form line. Hull City (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.85 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.30 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.