Swansea 1-0 Hull City – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Swansea at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Swansea vs Hull City fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Swansea and Hull City meet at Swansea.com Stadium in Championship, Regular Season - 43. This fixture gets under way on Friday 18 April 2025 at 15:00 UTC.
Form
Swansea (all games): 5W 2D 3L across 10 Championship fixtures this term — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L D W W W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
Swansea's home record at Swansea.com Stadium: 5W 1D 4L from 10 Championship appearances (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Hull City's overall Championship record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: D L W L D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Hull City's away record: 5W 2D 3L from 10 road trips in Championship this season (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.70 PPG for Swansea against 1.50 for Hull City. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Both sides have a clean-sheet tendency (using home/away splits) — Swansea have seen both teams score in just 30% of their matches, Hull City in only 20%. BTTS No has clear statistical support from the form record of both squads.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Swansea lead 2W to 2W over the last 7 encounters, with 3 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.1 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 21 Dec 2024, ended 1–2 with Hull City winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Swansea — key trading statistics (88 games, 44 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).
Hull City — key trading statistics (88 games, 44 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Swansea 50% versus Hull City 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Swansea 51% | Hull City 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Swansea 1.08 xG and Hull City 0.84 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Swansea attack 1.022 / defence 0.962 | Hull City attack 0.876 / defence 0.835. League average goals — home 1.264 / away 0.993. Data: 88 Swansea games / 88 Hull City games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Swansea 41% | Draw 31% | Hull City 28%. Fair-value odds: Swansea 2.44 | Draw 3.23 | Hull City 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 30% | BTTS probability 37% | Total xG 1.92. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 70% probability — total xG of 1.92 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 37% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Swansea as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Swansea if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 1.92 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 30% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 1.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 37% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Swansea 30% | Hull City 20% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Swansea vs Hull City | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 43 | Venue: Swansea.com Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 18 Apr 2025, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Swansea 41% | Draw 31% | Hull City 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 30% | BTTS 37% | xG Swansea 1.08 / Hull City 0.84 • Poisson strength factors: Swansea attack 1.022 / def 0.962 | Hull City attack 0.876 / def 0.835 | league avg home 1.264 / away 0.993 • Poisson stance: Swansea (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.08
Swansea xG
Expected Goals
0.84
Hull City xG
37%
BTTS
57%
Over 1.5
30%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Swansea vs Hull City kick off?
Swansea vs Hull City kicked off at 15:00 on Friday 18 April 2025 at Swansea.com Stadium.
What was the final score in Swansea vs Hull City?
Swansea 1 - 0 Hull City.
Where is Swansea vs Hull City being played?
The match is being played at Swansea.com Stadium.
What competition is Swansea vs Hull City part of?
Swansea vs Hull City is a Regular Season - 43 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Swansea vs Hull City?
Our statistical model gives Swansea a 41% chance of winning, Hull City a 28% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Swansea the favourite.
Will both teams score in Swansea vs Hull City?
Our model estimates a 37% probability that both Swansea and Hull City will score (BTTS).
Will Swansea vs Hull City have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 30%.
What is the head-to-head record between Swansea and Hull City?
Record (7 meetings): Swansea 2W | Draws 3 | Hull City 2W.
What form are Swansea and Hull City in?
Swansea (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-D-W-W-W. Hull City (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-L-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Swansea's attack rating (1.02) and Hull City's defence rating (0.83), the model arrives at 1.08 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Hull City's attack (0.88x) against Swansea's defence (0.96x) — and the away total comes out at 0.84.
These ratings are built from 88/88 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 16.5%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.0%), 1-0 (14.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Swansea Win
41%
2.45
31%
3.19
28%
3.58
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.9%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.7%
Draw
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.08
Swansea xG
Total xG
1.92
0.84
Hull City xG
2.45
41%
Home win
3.19
31%
Draw
3.58
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
57%
Over 1.5
1.75
43%
Under 1.5
2.33
30%
Over 2.5
3.33
70%
Under 2.5
1.43
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
37%
BTTS Yes
2.67
63%
BTTS No
1.60
Clean Sheet
43%
2.31
34%
2.94
Win to Nil
18%
5.67
9%
10.53
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.7 | 12.3 | 5.2 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.9 | 13.3 | 5.6 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.6 | 7.2 | 3.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.1 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Swansea vs Hull City?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.5%.
How many goals are Swansea and Hull City expected to score?
The model projects 1.08 expected goals for Swansea and 0.84 for Hull City, a combined total of 1.92.
How confident is the prediction model for Swansea vs Hull City?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 88 outings, Swansea have picked up 1.26 PPG on a 30W 21D 37L record — L-D-W-W-W across the most recent five.
Hull City's form line: 30W 25D 33L from 88 games, 1.31 PPG, last five D-L-W-L-D.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.26 PPG for Swansea against 1.31 for Hull City. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Swansea have posted 1.39 PPG from 44 outings (17W 10D 17L).
On the road, Hull City have gone 18W 8D 18L from 44 away games — 1.41 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Swansea are averaging 1.18 goals scored and 1.32 conceded per game recently; Hull City are on 1.24 scored and 1.25 conceded.
Last 88 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Swansea
Current Season
Hull City
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Swansea and Hull City in coming into this match?
Swansea have gone 30W 21D 37L in their last 88 games (1.26 PPG), while Hull City have gone 30W 25D 33L in their last 88 (1.31 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Swansea at home or Hull City away?
Hull City's away record (1.41 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Swansea at home: 1.39 PPG; Hull City away: 1.41 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. They last met on 24 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Swansea won 3-0 on 17 Sep 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Swansea have gone 2W 3D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Hull City — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Swansea
4
Draws
3
Hull City
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Swansea and Hull City?
From 10 meetings on record, Swansea have won 3, Hull City have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Swansea and Hull City last play each other?
They last met on 24 January 2026, when Hull City 2-1 Swansea.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Swansea are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Hull City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Swansea 46%, Hull City 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Swansea) and 50% (Hull City).
On the defensive side: Swansea keep a clean sheet in 34% of their matches; Hull City in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Swansea home games / Hull City away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Swansea play Hull City?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Swansea's recent matches and 52% of Hull City's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Swansea vs Hull City usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Swansea's recent games and 50% of Hull City's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Swansea and Hull City tend to score early?
Swansea have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Hull City in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Swansea edge out Hull City 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Swansea beat Hull City 1-0 at Swansea.com Stadium, Regular Season - 43, in the Championship. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Swansea 1.08 xG and Hull City 0.84 xG, a combined 1.92. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Hull City landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Swansea attack 1.02 / defence 0.96 against Hull City attack 0.88 / defence 0.83, drawn from 88/88 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Swansea 41% | Draw 31% | Hull City 28%, with Swansea to win its most likely call at 41%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 57% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Swansea 51%, Hull City 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Swansea's trading profile (88 games, 44 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not.
Hull City's trading profile (88 games, 44 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Swansea 1.26 PPG, Hull City 1.31 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Swansea win broke the near-deadlock. Swansea (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.11 average — tighter than their form line. Hull City (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.18 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.