Swansea 1-0 Derby – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Swansea at 53% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Swansea face Derby.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Derby travel to Swansea.com Stadium to take on Swansea in Championship (matchday 40). The game is scheduled for Saturday 5 April 2025 at 16:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Swansea stand at 3W 2D 5L — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D W L L D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
Swansea's home record over their last 10 home games: 4W 1D 5L (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Derby — last 10 games: 4W 2D 4L — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L W W W W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Derby's form when playing away from home: 1W 2D 7L across their last 10 road games (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.10 PPG (Swansea) versus 1.40 (Derby). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The H2H picture is flat: the 3 H2H matches we hold have produced 2 wins for Swansea, 0 for Derby and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 27 Nov 2024, ended Swansea 2–1 Derby — a Swansea win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Swansea in-play tendencies (last 85 games, 42 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; of the 29 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 34%; of the 28 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).
Derby in-play tendencies (last 85 games, 42 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Swansea 52% versus Derby 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Swansea 52% | Derby 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Swansea 1.58 xG and Derby 0.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Swansea attack 0.956 / defence 1.061 | Derby attack 0.850 / defence 1.258. League average goals — home 1.318 / away 1.016. Derby's defence rating of 1.258 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Swansea's projected output up. Data: built from Swansea's last 85 games and Derby's last 39.
Result probabilities: Swansea 53% | Draw 25% | Derby 22%. Fair-value odds: Swansea 1.89 | Draw 3.97 | Derby 4.59. Swansea hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS Yes probability 48% | Total xG 2.50. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.50 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS No at 52% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Swansea as the most likely outcome at 53% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Swansea offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.50 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 54% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Swansea 40% (last 10 home games) | Derby 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Swansea vs Derby | Competition: Championship, matchday 40 | Venue: Swansea.com Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 5 April 2025 at 16:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Swansea 53% | Draw 25% | Derby 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% (Under 54%) | BTTS Yes 48% (No 52%) | xG Swansea 1.58 / Derby 0.92 • Poisson strength factors: Swansea attack 0.956 / def 1.061 | Derby attack 0.850 / def 1.258 | league avg home 1.318 / away 1.016 • Poisson stance: Swansea (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.58
Swansea xG
Expected Goals
0.92
Derby xG
48%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Swansea vs Derby FAQs
What time does Swansea vs Derby kick off?
Swansea vs Derby kicked off at 16:00 UK time on Saturday 5 April 2025 at Swansea.com Stadium.
What was the final score in Swansea vs Derby?
Swansea 1 - 0 Derby.
Where is Swansea vs Derby being played?
The match is being played at Swansea.com Stadium.
What competition is Swansea vs Derby part of?
Swansea vs Derby is a Championship fixture (matchday 40) (England).
Who is favourite to win Swansea vs Derby?
Our statistical model gives Swansea a 53% chance of winning, Derby a 22% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Swansea the favourite.
Will both teams score in Swansea vs Derby?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Swansea and Derby will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (52%).
Will Swansea vs Derby have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (54%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Swansea's attack at 0.96x the league average against Derby's defence at 1.26x — combine the two and it projects 1.58 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Derby's attack versus Swansea's defence, projects 0.92 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Swansea's last 85 games and Derby's last 39 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.4%), 2-0 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Swansea Win
53%
1.89
25%
3.97
22%
4.59
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
2 – 0
10.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.58
Swansea xG
Total xG
2.50
0.92
Derby xG
1.89
53%
Home win
3.97
25%
Draw
4.59
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.10
52%
BTTS No
1.91
Clean Sheet
40%
2.50
20%
4.88
Win to Nil
21%
4.72
4%
22.39
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.2 | 7.5 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 13.0 | 11.9 | 5.5 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.3 | 9.4 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.4 | 5.0 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Swansea vs Derby Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Swansea vs Derby?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Swansea and Derby expected to score?
The model projects 1.58 expected goals for Swansea and 0.92 for Derby, a combined total of 2.50.
How confident is the prediction model for Swansea vs Derby?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 85 outings, Swansea have picked up 1.20 PPG on a 27W 21D 37L record — D-W-L-L-D across the most recent five.
Derby's form line: 39W 16D 30L from 85 games, 1.56 PPG, last five L-W-W-W-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: Swansea on 1.20 PPG, Derby on 1.56. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Swansea have posted 1.31 PPG from their last 42 home games (15W 10D 17L).
On the road, Derby have gone 15W 9D 18L from their last 42 away games — 1.29 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Swansea are averaging 1.16 goals scored and 1.36 conceded per game recently; Derby are on 1.41 scored and 1.04 conceded.
Defensively: Derby in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 85 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Swansea
Current Season
Derby
Current Season
Swansea (Home) vs Derby (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Swansea
Current Season
Derby
Current Season
❓ Swansea vs Derby Form FAQs
What form are Swansea and Derby in coming into this match?
Swansea have gone 27W 21D 37L in their last 85 games (1.20 PPG), while Derby have gone 39W 16D 30L in their last 85 (1.56 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Swansea at home or Derby away?
Swansea's home record (1.31 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Swansea at home: 1.31 PPG; Derby away: 1.29 PPG.
Have Swansea or Derby been keeping clean sheets recently?
Swansea have kept a clean sheet in 24% of their recent games, Derby in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 7 H2H matches in our data, going back to October 2021. All of them came in Championship. The most recent was as recently as 29 August 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 29 Aug 2026, when Swansea won Derby 0-3 Swansea.
Swansea's record when hosting Derby specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
4
Swansea
1
Draws
2
Derby
Recent Meetings
❓ Swansea vs Derby H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Swansea and Derby?
Across the 7 head-to-head matches in our data, Swansea have won 4, Derby have won 2, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Swansea and Derby last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 29 August 2026: Derby 0-3 Swansea.
Who has won more matches between Swansea and Derby?
Swansea have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 7 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Swansea are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 41% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 30% of those situations.
Derby are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Swansea 48%, Derby 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Swansea) and 50% (Derby).
On the defensive side: Swansea keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Swansea have failed to score in 26% of games; Derby in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Swansea home games / Derby away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Swansea vs Derby Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Swansea and Derby matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Swansea's recent matches and 50% of Derby's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Swansea and Derby matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Swansea's recent games and 50% of Derby's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Swansea and Derby matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 74% of Swansea's recent matches and 67% of Derby's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Swansea edge out Derby 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Swansea beat Derby 1-0 at Swansea.com Stadium, Regular Season - 40, in the Championship. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Swansea 1.58 xG and Derby 0.92 xG, a combined 2.50. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Derby landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Swansea attack 0.96 / defence 1.06 against Derby attack 0.85 / defence 1.26, drawn from 85/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Swansea 53% | Draw 25% | Derby 22%, with Swansea to win its most likely call at 53%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Swansea 52%, Derby 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Swansea's trading profile (85 games, 42 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not.
Derby's trading profile (85 games, 42 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Swansea 1.20 PPG, Derby 1.56 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Swansea win broke the near-deadlock. Swansea (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.17 average — tighter than their form line. Derby (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.29 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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