Swansea 3-1 Charlton – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Swansea at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Swansea vs Charlton fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Championship clash, Regular Season - 46 as Swansea welcome Charlton to Swansea.com Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 2 May 2026 at 12:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Swansea stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Championship matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D W L W D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, Swansea have posted 5W 3D 2L at Swansea.com Stadium — 1.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across all Championship games this season, Charlton have recorded 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D L D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Charlton's form when playing away from home: 2W 6D 2L across 10 road games this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.50 PPG (Swansea) versus 1.20 (Charlton). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Swansea, 0 for Charlton and 1 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 1 Nov 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Swansea trading profile (91 games, 45 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 49% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).
Charlton trading profile (91 games, 45 at away): they score before half-time in 47% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Swansea 47% versus Charlton 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Swansea 47% | Charlton 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Swansea 1.41 xG and Charlton 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Swansea attack 1.038 / defence 1.009 | Charlton attack 0.817 / defence 1.037. League average goals — home 1.311 / away 1.204. Data: 91 Swansea games / 45 Charlton games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Swansea 45% | Draw 30% | Charlton 25%. Fair-value odds: Swansea 2.22 | Draw 3.33 | Charlton 4.00. Swansea hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.40. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.40 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Swansea are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Swansea offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.40 combined xG gives a 43% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 49% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Swansea 50% | Charlton 70% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Swansea vs Charlton | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 46 | Venue: Swansea.com Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 2 May 2026, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Swansea 45% | Draw 30% | Charlton 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 49% | xG Swansea 1.41 / Charlton 0.99 • Poisson strength factors: Swansea attack 1.038 / def 1.009 | Charlton attack 0.817 / def 1.037 | league avg home 1.311 / away 1.204 • Poisson stance: Swansea (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.41
Swansea xG
Expected Goals
0.99
Charlton xG
49%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Swansea vs Charlton kick off?
Swansea vs Charlton kicked off at 12:30 on Saturday 2 May 2026 at Swansea.com Stadium.
What was the final score in Swansea vs Charlton?
Swansea 3 - 1 Charlton.
Where is Swansea vs Charlton being played?
The match is being played at Swansea.com Stadium.
What competition is Swansea vs Charlton part of?
Swansea vs Charlton is a Regular Season - 46 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Swansea vs Charlton?
Our statistical model gives Swansea a 45% chance of winning, Charlton a 25% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Swansea the favourite.
Will both teams score in Swansea vs Charlton?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Swansea and Charlton will score (BTTS).
Will Swansea vs Charlton have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Swansea and Charlton?
Record (1 meetings): Swansea 0W | Draws 1 | Charlton 0W.
What form are Swansea and Charlton in?
Swansea (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-W-L-W-D. Charlton (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-L-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Swansea's attacking strength (1.04x league average) is weighed against Charlton's defensive record (1.04x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.41. The same calculation in reverse, Charlton's attack versus Swansea's defence, projects 0.99 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 91/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.3%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.1%), 0-0 (10.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Swansea Win
45%
2.23
30%
3.30
25%
4.04
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
0 – 0
9.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.41
Swansea xG
Total xG
2.40
0.99
Charlton xG
2.23
45%
Home win
3.30
30%
Draw
4.04
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.03
51%
BTTS No
1.97
Clean Sheet
37%
2.70
24%
4.10
Win to Nil
17%
6.00
6%
16.58
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.0 | 9.0 | 4.4 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.8 | 12.7 | 6.3 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.0 | 8.9 | 4.4 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 4.2 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Swansea vs Charlton?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Swansea and Charlton expected to score?
The model projects 1.41 expected goals for Swansea and 0.99 for Charlton, a combined total of 2.40.
How confident is the prediction model for Swansea vs Charlton?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Swansea's recent record stands at 34W 20D 37L from 91 games, a 1.34 PPG return, with D-W-L-W-D in the last five.
Charlton, meanwhile, have gone 37W 25D 29L across 91 games — 1.49 PPG, with D-L-D-L-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Swansea on 1.34 PPG, Charlton on 1.49. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Swansea have managed 20W 12D 13L from 45 games — 1.60 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Charlton's away record stands at 13W 15D 17L across 45 trips, a 1.20 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Swansea come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Swansea are averaging 1.15 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; Charlton are on 1.19 scored and 1.08 conceded.
Defensively: Charlton in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 91 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Swansea
Current Season
Charlton
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Swansea and Charlton in coming into this match?
Swansea have gone 34W 20D 37L in their last 91 games (1.34 PPG), while Charlton have gone 37W 25D 29L in their last 91 (1.49 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Swansea at home or Charlton away?
Swansea's home record (1.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Swansea at home: 1.60 PPG; Charlton away: 1.20 PPG.
Have Swansea or Charlton been keeping clean sheets recently?
Swansea have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, Charlton in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. They last met on 2 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Swansea
1
Draws
0
Charlton
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Swansea and Charlton?
From 2 meetings on record, Swansea have won 1, Charlton have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Swansea and Charlton last play each other?
They last met on 2 May 2026, when Swansea 3-1 Charlton.
Who has won more matches between Swansea and Charlton?
Swansea have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Swansea are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Charlton see a goal before the break in 47% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Swansea 49%, Charlton 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Swansea) and 42% (Charlton).
On the defensive side: Swansea keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Charlton in 31%; Charlton in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Swansea home games / Charlton away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Swansea play Charlton?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 49% of Swansea's recent matches and 44% of Charlton's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Swansea vs Charlton usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Swansea's recent games and 42% of Charlton's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Swansea and Charlton tend to score early?
Swansea have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Charlton in 47% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Swansea cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Charlton.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Swansea beat Charlton 3-1 at Swansea.com Stadium, Regular Season - 46, in the Championship. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Swansea 1.41 xG and Charlton 0.99 xG, a combined 2.40. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Swansea beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Swansea attack 1.04 / defence 1.01 against Charlton attack 0.82 / defence 1.04, drawn from 91/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Swansea 45% | Draw 30% | Charlton 25%, with Swansea to win its most likely call at 45%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 22% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Swansea 47%, Charlton 45%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Swansea's trading profile (91 games, 45 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
Charlton's trading profile (91 games, 45 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Swansea 1.34 PPG, Charlton 1.49 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Swansea win broke the near-deadlock. Swansea (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.42 average — above their attacking norm. Charlton (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.24 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.