Swansea 3-3 Bournemouth – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bournemouth at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Swansea vs Bournemouth fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Championship encounter, Regular Season - 34 sees Bournemouth travel to Swansea.com Stadium to take on Swansea. The game is scheduled for Tuesday 26 April 2022, 19:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Championship games this season, Swansea have gone 4W 4D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.60 PPG return. Last five: W W D D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Swansea at Swansea.com Stadium this season: 5W 3D 2L from 10 home games — 1.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Bournemouth — All Games: 4W 5D 1L from 10 Championship fixtures this season — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L D D W D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
Bournemouth's form when playing away from home: 5W 1D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.60 PPG (Swansea) versus 1.70 (Bournemouth). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Swansea, 1 for Bournemouth and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 6 Nov 2021, ended 0–4 with Bournemouth winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Swansea trading profile (42 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 52% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Bournemouth trading profile (42 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Swansea 45% versus Bournemouth 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Swansea 50% | Bournemouth 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Swansea 0.91 xG and Bournemouth 1.37 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Swansea attack 0.948 / defence 1.222 | Bournemouth attack 0.996 / defence 0.914. League average goals — home 1.048 / away 1.128. Data: 43 Swansea games / 42 Bournemouth games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Swansea 25% | Draw 28% | Bournemouth 48%. Fair-value odds: Swansea 4.00 | Draw 3.57 | Bournemouth 2.08. Bournemouth hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.28. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.28 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Bournemouth are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Bournemouth offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.28 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 40% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 45%. Form rates corroborate: Swansea 60% | Bournemouth 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Swansea vs Bournemouth | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: Swansea.com Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 26 Apr 2022, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Swansea 25% | Draw 28% | Bournemouth 48% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 45% | xG Swansea 0.91 / Bournemouth 1.37 • Poisson strength factors: Swansea attack 0.948 / def 1.222 | Bournemouth attack 0.996 / def 0.914 | league avg home 1.048 / away 1.128 • Poisson stance: Bournemouth (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.91
Swansea xG
Expected Goals
1.37
Bournemouth xG
45%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Swansea vs Bournemouth kick off?
Swansea vs Bournemouth kicked off at 19:45 on Tuesday 26 April 2022 at Swansea.com Stadium.
What was the final score in Swansea vs Bournemouth?
Swansea 3 - 3 Bournemouth.
Where is Swansea vs Bournemouth being played?
The match is being played at Swansea.com Stadium.
What competition is Swansea vs Bournemouth part of?
Swansea vs Bournemouth is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Swansea vs Bournemouth?
Our statistical model gives Swansea a 25% chance of winning, Bournemouth a 48% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Bournemouth the favourite.
Will both teams score in Swansea vs Bournemouth?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Swansea and Bournemouth will score (BTTS).
Will Swansea vs Bournemouth have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Swansea and Bournemouth?
Record (1 meetings): Swansea 0W | Draws 0 | Bournemouth 1W.
What form are Swansea and Bournemouth in?
Swansea (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-W-D-D-D. Bournemouth (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.70 | L5 L-D-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Swansea's attack at 0.95x the league average against Bournemouth's defence at 0.91x — combine the two and it projects 0.91 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Bournemouth's attack versus Swansea's defence, projects 1.37 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 43/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (12.4%), 0-0 (11.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bournemouth Win
25%
4.03
28%
3.63
48%
2.10
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.0%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
0 – 0
10.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.91
Swansea xG
Total xG
2.28
1.37
Bournemouth xG
4.03
25%
Home win
3.63
28%
Draw
2.10
48%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.25
55%
BTTS No
1.80
Clean Sheet
25%
3.95
40%
2.48
Win to Nil
6%
15.91
19%
5.20
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.2 | 14.0 | 9.6 | 4.4 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 12.7 | 8.7 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.2 | 5.8 | 4.0 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Swansea vs Bournemouth?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Swansea and Bournemouth expected to score?
The model projects 0.91 expected goals for Swansea and 1.37 for Bournemouth, a combined total of 2.28.
How confident is the prediction model for Swansea vs Bournemouth?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 42 outings, Swansea have picked up 1.43 PPG on a 16W 12D 14L record — W-W-D-D-D across the most recent five.
Bournemouth's form line: 22W 12D 8L from 42 games, 1.86 PPG, last five L-D-D-W-D.
Put side by side, Bournemouth are the form team by 0.43 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Swansea.
Venue Form
On home soil, Swansea have posted 1.62 PPG from 21 outings (9W 7D 5L).
On the road, Bournemouth have gone 11W 5D 5L from 21 away games — 1.81 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Swansea are averaging 1.26 goals scored and 1.36 conceded per game recently; Bournemouth are on 1.57 scored and 0.86 conceded.
Defensively: Swansea have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games; Bournemouth in 43% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 42 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Swansea
Current Season
Bournemouth
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Swansea and Bournemouth in coming into this match?
Swansea have gone 16W 12D 14L in their last 42 games (1.43 PPG), while Bournemouth have gone 22W 12D 8L in their last 42 (1.86 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Swansea at home or Bournemouth away?
Bournemouth's away record (1.81 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Swansea at home: 1.62 PPG; Bournemouth away: 1.81 PPG.
Have Swansea or Bournemouth been keeping clean sheets recently?
Swansea have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Bournemouth in 43%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. It has been a while since the last meeting — 26 April 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Swansea
1
Draws
1
Bournemouth
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Swansea and Bournemouth?
From 2 meetings on record, Swansea have won 0, Bournemouth have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Swansea and Bournemouth last play each other?
They last met on 26 April 2022, when Swansea 3-3 Bournemouth.
Who has won more matches between Swansea and Bournemouth?
Bournemouth have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Swansea see a goal before the break in 52% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Bournemouth see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Swansea 52%, Bournemouth 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Swansea) and 33% (Bournemouth).
On the defensive side: Swansea keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; Bournemouth in 57%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Swansea home games / Bournemouth away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Swansea play Bournemouth?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Swansea's recent matches and 33% of Bournemouth's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Swansea vs Bournemouth usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Swansea's recent games and 33% of Bournemouth's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Swansea and Bournemouth share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Swansea and Bournemouth finished level at 3-3 at Swansea.com Stadium, Regular Season - 34, in the Championship. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Swansea 0.91 xG and Bournemouth 1.37 xG, a combined 2.28. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. Swansea beat their projection by 2.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Bournemouth outscored their 1.37 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Swansea attack 0.95 / defence 1.22 against Bournemouth attack 1.00 / defence 0.91, drawn from 43/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Swansea 25% | Draw 28% | Bournemouth 48%, with Bournemouth to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. Over 3.5 was 20% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Swansea 50%, Bournemouth 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Swansea's trading profile (42 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Bournemouth's trading profile (42 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Bournemouth arrived the stronger side — 1.86 PPG against 1.43. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Swansea (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.29 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.10 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Bournemouth (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.29 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 0.71 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.