Sunderland 0-1 Millwall – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Sunderland at 38%, yet in-form Millwall provide a compelling counter-argument — this Sunderland vs Millwall fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Millwall make the trip to Stadium of Light to face Sunderland in Championship (matchday 44). The match kicks off on Saturday 20 April 2024 at 16:00 UK time.
Form
Sunderland (all games): 2W 3D 5L across their last 10 — 0.90 PPG. Last five: W L D D W. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Sunderland's home record over their last 10 home games: 3W 2D 5L (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Millwall's record over their last 10 games: 5W 2D 3L (1.70 PPG). Last five: D L L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
On the road, Millwall have gone 2W 2D 6L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Millwall arrive in superior form — a 0.80 PPG advantage (1.70 vs 0.90) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
H2H History
Neither side has dominated the 3 H2H matches in our data: 1 wins for Sunderland, 0 for Millwall and 2 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 2 Dec 2023, ended Sunderland 1–1 Millwall — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading Data
Sunderland goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 89 games, 44 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 59% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; of the 19 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 26%; of the 25 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 28%; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games).
Millwall goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 89 games, 44 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 59% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; of the 26 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 27%; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sunderland 53% versus Millwall 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sunderland 52% | Millwall 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sunderland 1.15 xG and Millwall 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sunderland attack 0.857 / defence 1.157 | Millwall attack 0.800 / defence 1.003. League average goals — home 1.341 / away 1.141. Data: built from Sunderland's last 89 games and Millwall's last 89.
Result probabilities: Sunderland 38% | Draw 29% | Millwall 33%. Fair-value odds: Sunderland 2.64 | Draw 3.45 | Millwall 3.02. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS Yes probability 45% | Total xG 2.21. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.21 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 55% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sunderland at 38% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Millwall (1.70 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sunderland if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.21 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 62% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Sunderland's last 10 home games and Millwall's last 10 away games) averaging 2.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Sunderland 40% (last 10 home games) | Millwall 40% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sunderland vs Millwall | Competition: Championship, matchday 44 | Venue: Stadium of Light • Kick-off: Saturday 20 April 2024 at 16:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sunderland 38% | Draw 29% | Millwall 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% (Under 62%) | BTTS Yes 45% (No 55%) | xG Sunderland 1.15 / Millwall 1.06 • Poisson strength factors: Sunderland attack 0.857 / def 1.157 | Millwall attack 0.800 / def 1.003 | league avg home 1.341 / away 1.141 • Poisson stance: Sunderland (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.15
Sunderland xG
Expected Goals
1.06
Millwall xG
45%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Sunderland vs Millwall FAQs
What time does Sunderland vs Millwall kick off?
Sunderland vs Millwall kicked off at 16:00 UK time on Saturday 20 April 2024 at Stadium of Light.
What was the final score in Sunderland vs Millwall?
Sunderland 0 - 1 Millwall.
Where is Sunderland vs Millwall being played?
The match is being played at Stadium of Light.
What competition is Sunderland vs Millwall part of?
Sunderland vs Millwall is a Championship fixture (matchday 44) (England).
Who is favourite to win Sunderland vs Millwall?
Our statistical model gives Sunderland a 38% chance of winning, Millwall a 33% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Sunderland the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sunderland vs Millwall?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Sunderland and Millwall will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (55%).
Will Sunderland vs Millwall have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (62%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Sunderland's attacking strength (0.86x league average) is weighed against Millwall's defensive record (1.00x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.15. Flip it around — Millwall's attack (0.80x) against Sunderland's defence (1.16x) — and the away total comes out at 1.06.
These ratings are built from Sunderland's last 89 games and Millwall's last 89 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.7%), 1-0 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sunderland Win
38%
2.64
29%
3.45
33%
3.02
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.7%
Home win
0 – 1
11.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.15
Sunderland xG
Total xG
2.21
1.06
Millwall xG
2.64
38%
Home win
3.45
29%
Draw
3.02
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.24
55%
BTTS No
1.81
Clean Sheet
35%
2.87
32%
3.17
Win to Nil
13%
7.58
10%
9.58
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.0 | 11.6 | 6.1 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.7 | 13.4 | 7.1 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 7.7 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 3.0 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Sunderland vs Millwall Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Sunderland vs Millwall?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Sunderland and Millwall expected to score?
The model projects 1.15 expected goals for Sunderland and 1.06 for Millwall, a combined total of 2.21.
How confident is the prediction model for Sunderland vs Millwall?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Sunderland's recent record stands at 34W 22D 33L from 89 games, a 1.39 PPG return, with W-L-D-D-W in the last five.
Millwall, meanwhile, have gone 32W 22D 35L across 89 games — 1.33 PPG, with D-L-L-W-W in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.39 PPG for Sunderland against 1.33 for Millwall. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Sunderland have managed 18W 10D 16L from their last 44 home games — 1.45 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Millwall's away record stands at 13W 11D 20L across their last 44 away games, a 1.14 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Sunderland are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.18 conceded per game recently; Millwall are on 1.11 scored and 1.18 conceded.
Last 89 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sunderland
Current Season
Millwall
Current Season
Sunderland (Home) vs Millwall (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Sunderland
Current Season
Millwall
Current Season
❓ Sunderland vs Millwall Form FAQs
What form are Sunderland and Millwall in coming into this match?
Sunderland have gone 34W 22D 33L in their last 89 games (1.39 PPG), while Millwall have gone 32W 22D 35L in their last 89 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sunderland at home or Millwall away?
Sunderland's home record (1.45 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sunderland at home: 1.45 PPG; Millwall away: 1.14 PPG.
Have Sunderland or Millwall been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sunderland have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Millwall in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 6 H2H matches between Sunderland and Millwall, the earliest from December 2022. All of them came in Championship. The most recent in our data was on 29 March 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sunderland won Sunderland 3-0 Millwall on 3 Dec 2022, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sunderland have gone 2W 0D 1L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Millwall — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Sunderland
3
Draws
1
Millwall
Recent Meetings
❓ Sunderland vs Millwall H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Sunderland and Millwall?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Sunderland have won 2, Millwall have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Sunderland and Millwall last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 29 March 2025: Sunderland 1-0 Millwall.
Who has won more matches between Sunderland and Millwall?
Sunderland have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Sunderland see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Millwall see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sunderland 57%, Millwall 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 61% (Sunderland) and 39% (Millwall).
On the defensive side: Millwall in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sunderland home games / Millwall away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Sunderland vs Millwall Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Sunderland and Millwall matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 57% of Sunderland's recent matches and 43% of Millwall's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Sunderland and Millwall matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 61% of Sunderland's recent games and 39% of Millwall's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Shock result as Millwall defy the odds to beat Sunderland 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Millwall beat Sunderland 0-1 at Stadium of Light, Regular Season - 44, in the Championship. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sunderland 1.15 xG and Millwall 1.06 xG, a combined 2.21. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Sunderland fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sunderland attack 0.86 / defence 1.16 against Millwall attack 0.80 / defence 1.00, drawn from 89/89 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sunderland 38% | Draw 29% | Millwall 33%, with Sunderland to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Millwall win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 65% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sunderland 52%, Millwall 39%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sunderland's trading profile (89 games, 44 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Millwall's trading profile (89 games, 44 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sunderland 1.39 PPG, Millwall 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Millwall win broke the near-deadlock. Sunderland (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.45 scoring average — below par going forward. Millwall (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.23 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
Related fixtures
More Championship fixtures — matchday 44
All Championship fixtures →
More UK football predictions →