Stoke City 1-2 Derby – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Stoke City at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Stoke City vs Derby fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Stoke City and Derby meet at bet365 Stadium in Championship, Regular Season - 25. This fixture gets under way on Thursday 30 December 2021 at 19:45 UTC.
Current Form
Stoke City's overall Championship record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: W L L W D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Stoke City, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Stoke City's form when playing at home: 5W 3D 2L across 10 games at bet365 Stadium this term (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at bet365 Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Derby have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Championship outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: D L L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Derby, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Derby have gone 1W 5D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.40 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.40 PPG for Stoke City against 1.20 for Derby. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Both sides have a clean-sheet tendency (using home/away splits) — Stoke City have seen both teams score in just 30% of their matches, Derby in only 30%. BTTS No has clear statistical support from the form record of both squads.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Stoke City lead 0W to 1W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 18 Sep 2021, ended 1–2 with Derby winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Stoke City — key trading statistics (22 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 46% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 27% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
Derby — key trading statistics (22 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 46% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 18% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time; they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Stoke City 41% versus Derby 46%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Stoke City 36% | Derby 32%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Stoke City 0.94 xG and Derby 0.62 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stoke City attack 0.916 / defence 1.005 | Derby attack 0.568 / defence 1.013. League average goals — home 1.013 / away 1.095. Data: 22 Stoke City games / 23 Derby games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Stoke City 41% | Draw 36% | Derby 23%. Fair-value odds: Stoke City 2.44 | Draw 2.78 | Derby 4.35. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 36% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 21% | BTTS probability 29% | Total xG 1.56. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 79% probability — total xG of 1.56 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 71% — Derby's lower xG of 0.62 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 29%.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Stoke City are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 36% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Stoke City if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 1.56 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 21% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 1.5 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 29% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Stoke City 30% | Derby 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Stoke City vs Derby | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: bet365 Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 30 Dec 2021, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Stoke City 41% | Draw 36% | Derby 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 21% | BTTS 29% | xG Stoke City 0.94 / Derby 0.62 • Poisson strength factors: Stoke City attack 0.916 / def 1.005 | Derby attack 0.568 / def 1.013 | league avg home 1.013 / away 1.095 • Poisson stance: Stoke City (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.94
Stoke City xG
Expected Goals
0.62
Derby xG
29%
BTTS
47%
Over 1.5
21%
Over 2.5
7%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Stoke City vs Derby kick off?
Stoke City vs Derby kicked off at 19:45 on Thursday 30 December 2021 at bet365 Stadium.
What was the final score in Stoke City vs Derby?
Stoke City 1 - 2 Derby.
Where is Stoke City vs Derby being played?
The match is being played at bet365 Stadium.
What competition is Stoke City vs Derby part of?
Stoke City vs Derby is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Stoke City vs Derby?
Our statistical model gives Stoke City a 41% chance of winning, Derby a 23% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw — making Stoke City the favourite.
Will both teams score in Stoke City vs Derby?
Our model estimates a 29% probability that both Stoke City and Derby will score (BTTS).
Will Stoke City vs Derby have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 21%.
What is the head-to-head record between Stoke City and Derby?
Record (1 meetings): Stoke City 0W | Draws 0 | Derby 1W.
What form are Stoke City and Derby in?
Stoke City (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-L-L-W-D. Derby (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-L-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Stoke City's attack rating (0.92) and Derby's defence rating (1.01), the model arrives at 0.94 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Derby's attack (0.57x) against Stoke City's defence (1.00x) — and the away total comes out at 0.62.
These ratings are built from 22/23 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 22.5%. Close behind: 1-0 (18.1%), 1-1 (13.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 54% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Stoke City Win
41%
2.44
36%
2.77
23%
4.36
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
20.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
19.7%
Home win
0 – 1
13.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.94
Stoke City xG
Total xG
1.56
0.62
Derby xG
2.44
41%
Home win
2.77
36%
Draw
4.36
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
46%
Over 1.5
2.17
54%
Under 1.5
1.85
21%
Over 2.5
4.76
79%
Under 2.5
1.27
7%
Over 3.5
14.29
93%
Under 3.5
1.08
2%
Over 4.5
50.00
98%
Under 4.5
1.02
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
29%
BTTS Yes
3.47
71%
BTTS No
1.40
Clean Sheet
54%
1.87
39%
2.56
Win to Nil
22%
4.56
9%
11.17
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 20.9 | 13.1 | 4.1 | 0.9 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 19.7 | 12.3 | 3.8 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 9.2 | 5.8 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 2.9 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Stoke City vs Derby?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 22.5%.
How many goals are Stoke City and Derby expected to score?
The model projects 0.94 expected goals for Stoke City and 0.62 for Derby, a combined total of 1.56.
How confident is the prediction model for Stoke City vs Derby?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Stoke City's recent record stands at 10W 5D 7L from 22 games, a 1.59 PPG return, with W-L-L-W-D in the last five. The sample for Stoke City is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Derby, meanwhile, have gone 6W 9D 7L across 22 games — 1.23 PPG, with D-L-L-W-W in their last five. The sample for Derby is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.59 PPG for Stoke City against 1.23 for Derby. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Stoke City have managed 6W 3D 2L from 11 games — 1.91 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Derby's away record stands at 1W 5D 5L across 11 trips, a 0.73 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.23 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Derby's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Stoke City come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Stoke City are averaging 1.18 goals scored and 0.95 conceded per game recently; Derby are on 0.82 scored and 0.91 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
Defensively: Stoke City have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their games; Derby in 41% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 22 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Stoke City
Blended
Derby
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Stoke City and Derby in coming into this match?
Stoke City have gone 10W 5D 7L in their last 22 games (1.59 PPG), while Derby have gone 6W 9D 7L in their last 22 (1.23 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Stoke City at home or Derby away?
Stoke City's home record (1.91 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Stoke City at home: 1.91 PPG; Derby away: 0.73 PPG.
Have Stoke City or Derby been keeping clean sheets recently?
Stoke City have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their recent games, Derby in 41%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. They last met on 6 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Stoke City have gone 2W 0D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Derby — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Stoke City
1
Draws
3
Derby
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Stoke City and Derby?
From 6 meetings on record, Stoke City have won 2, Derby have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Stoke City and Derby last play each other?
They last met on 6 April 2026, when Derby 2-0 Stoke City.
Who has won more matches between Stoke City and Derby?
Derby have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Stoke City see a goal before the break in 46% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Derby see a goal before the break in 46% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Stoke City 36%, Derby 36% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 27% for Stoke City and 18% for Derby.
On the defensive side: Stoke City keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches; Derby in 36%; Stoke City have failed to score in 27% of games; Derby in 54%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Stoke City home games / Derby away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Stoke City play Derby?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 36% of Stoke City's recent matches and 36% of Derby's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Stoke City vs Derby usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 27% of Stoke City's recent games and 18% of Derby's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Shock result as Derby defy the odds to beat Stoke City 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Derby beat Stoke City 1-2 at bet365 Stadium, Regular Season - 25, in the Championship. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Stoke City 0.94 xG and Derby 0.62 xG, a combined 1.56. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Derby outscored their 0.62 projection by 1.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stoke City attack 0.92 / defence 1.00 against Derby attack 0.57 / defence 1.01, drawn from 22/23 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Stoke City 41% | Draw 36% | Derby 23%, with Stoke City to win its most likely call at 41%. Instead the game produced a Derby win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 21%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 47% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 29% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 34% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stoke City 36%, Derby 32%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Stoke City's trading profile (22 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.
Derby's trading profile (22 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Stoke City 1.59 PPG, Derby 1.23 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Derby win broke the near-deadlock. Stoke City (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.82 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Derby (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.45 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.