Sheffield Utd 1-0 Blackburn – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Sheffield Utd at 46% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Sheffield Utd vs Blackburn encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Championship encounter, Regular Season - 34 sees Blackburn travel to Bramall Lane to take on Sheffield Utd. The game is scheduled for Wednesday 23 February 2022, 19:45 UTC.
Form Guide
Sheffield Utd — All Games: 6W 3D 1L from 10 Championship outings this season, averaging 2.10 points per game. Last five: W W D D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.50 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.50 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
Sheffield Utd's home record at Bramall Lane: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Championship appearances (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.40 conceded per game. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Bramall Lane. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across all Championship games this season, Blackburn have recorded 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W D L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 0.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
Blackburn's form when playing away from home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Sheffield Utd are in the better shape of the two on current Championship data — 0.60 PPG ahead (2.10 vs 1.50). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call (using home/away splits). Sheffield Utd's 20% and Blackburn's 20% both sit well below average — BTTS No is the strongly backed angle.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Sheffield Utd, 1 for Blackburn and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 4.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 6 Nov 2021, ended 1–3 with Blackburn winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Sheffield Utd trading profile (31 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time; they fail to score in 32% of games.
Blackburn trading profile (31 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 21% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sheffield Utd 42% versus Blackburn 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sheffield Utd 45% | Blackburn 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sheffield Utd 1.05 xG and Blackburn 0.58 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sheffield Utd attack 1.127 / defence 0.831 | Blackburn attack 0.655 / defence 0.863. League average goals — home 1.076 / away 1.066. Data: 31 Sheffield Utd games / 32 Blackburn games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sheffield Utd 46% | Draw 34% | Blackburn 20%. Fair-value odds: Sheffield Utd 2.17 | Draw 2.94 | Blackburn 5.00. Sheffield Utd hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (34%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 22% | BTTS probability 29% | Total xG 1.63. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 78% probability — total xG of 1.63 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 71% — Blackburn's lower xG of 0.58 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 29%.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Sheffield Utd as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sheffield Utd offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 1.63 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 22% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 1.6 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 29% on No. Form rates corroborate: Sheffield Utd 20% | Blackburn 20% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sheffield Utd vs Blackburn | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: Bramall Lane • Kick-off: Wednesday 23 Feb 2022, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sheffield Utd 46% | Draw 34% | Blackburn 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 22% | BTTS 29% | xG Sheffield Utd 1.05 / Blackburn 0.58 • Poisson strength factors: Sheffield Utd attack 1.127 / def 0.831 | Blackburn attack 0.655 / def 0.863 | league avg home 1.076 / away 1.066 • Poisson stance: Sheffield Utd (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.05
Sheffield Utd xG
Expected Goals
0.58
Blackburn xG
29%
BTTS
49%
Over 1.5
22%
Over 2.5
8%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sheffield Utd vs Blackburn kick off?
Sheffield Utd vs Blackburn kicked off at 19:45 on Wednesday 23 February 2022 at Bramall Lane.
What was the final score in Sheffield Utd vs Blackburn?
Sheffield Utd 1 - 0 Blackburn.
Where is Sheffield Utd vs Blackburn being played?
The match is being played at Bramall Lane.
What competition is Sheffield Utd vs Blackburn part of?
Sheffield Utd vs Blackburn is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Sheffield Utd vs Blackburn?
Our statistical model gives Sheffield Utd a 46% chance of winning, Blackburn a 20% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Sheffield Utd the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sheffield Utd vs Blackburn?
Our model estimates a 29% probability that both Sheffield Utd and Blackburn will score (BTTS).
Will Sheffield Utd vs Blackburn have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 22%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sheffield Utd and Blackburn?
Record (1 meetings): Sheffield Utd 0W | Draws 0 | Blackburn 1W.
What form are Sheffield Utd and Blackburn in?
Sheffield Utd (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-W-D-D-W. Blackburn (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-D-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Sheffield Utd's attack at 1.13x the league average against Blackburn's defence at 0.86x — combine the two and it projects 1.05 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Blackburn's attack versus Sheffield Utd's defence, projects 0.58 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 31/32 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 21.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (19.0%), 1-1 (13.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 54% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sheffield Utd Win
46%
2.17
34%
2.95
20%
5.01
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
20.6%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
19.7%
Draw
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.05
Sheffield Utd xG
Total xG
1.63
0.58
Blackburn xG
2.17
46%
Home win
2.95
34%
Draw
5.01
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
48%
Over 1.5
2.08
52%
Under 1.5
1.92
22%
Over 2.5
4.55
78%
Under 2.5
1.28
8%
Over 3.5
12.50
92%
Under 3.5
1.09
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
29%
BTTS Yes
3.48
71%
BTTS No
1.40
Clean Sheet
56%
1.79
35%
2.85
Win to Nil
26%
3.87
7%
14.27
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 19.7 | 11.4 | 3.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 20.6 | 11.9 | 3.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 10.8 | 6.2 | 1.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 3.8 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sheffield Utd vs Blackburn?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 21.2%.
How many goals are Sheffield Utd and Blackburn expected to score?
The model projects 1.05 expected goals for Sheffield Utd and 0.58 for Blackburn, a combined total of 1.63.
How confident is the prediction model for Sheffield Utd vs Blackburn?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Sheffield Utd come into this having played 31 games, going 14W 8D 9L for 1.61 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-D-D-W.
On the other side, Blackburn sit at 1.65 PPG from 31 outings (14W 9D 8L), a run that reads W-D-L-L-D across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Sheffield Utd on 1.61 PPG, Blackburn on 1.65. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Sheffield Utd's home form reads 7W 3D 4L across 14 games on their own ground, a 1.71 PPG return.
Away from home, Blackburn have taken 1.21 points per game from 14 outings (4W 5D 5L). That's a step down from their 1.65 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Blackburn's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sheffield Utd come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Sheffield Utd are averaging 1.39 goals scored and 1.06 conceded per game recently; Blackburn are on 1.39 scored and 1.03 conceded.
Defensively: Sheffield Utd have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their games; Blackburn in 42% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 31 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sheffield Utd
Current Season
Blackburn
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sheffield Utd and Blackburn in coming into this match?
Sheffield Utd have gone 14W 8D 9L in their last 31 games (1.61 PPG), while Blackburn have gone 14W 9D 8L in their last 31 (1.65 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sheffield Utd at home or Blackburn away?
Sheffield Utd's home record (1.71 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sheffield Utd at home: 1.71 PPG; Blackburn away: 1.21 PPG.
Have Sheffield Utd or Blackburn been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sheffield Utd have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their recent games, Blackburn in 42%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Sheffield Utd and Blackburn runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. They last met on 22 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 20 Aug 2022, when Sheffield Utd won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Sheffield Utd's record when hosting Blackburn specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Sheffield Utd
1
Draws
3
Blackburn
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sheffield Utd and Blackburn?
From 8 meetings on record, Sheffield Utd have won 4, Blackburn have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Sheffield Utd and Blackburn last play each other?
They last met on 22 April 2026, when Sheffield Utd 1-3 Blackburn.
Who has won more matches between Sheffield Utd and Blackburn?
Sheffield Utd have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Sheffield Utd see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Blackburn are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sheffield Utd 36%, Blackburn 36% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 43% for Sheffield Utd and 21% for Blackburn.
On the defensive side: Sheffield Utd keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Blackburn in 43%; Sheffield Utd have failed to score in 29% of games; Blackburn in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sheffield Utd home games / Blackburn away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sheffield Utd play Blackburn?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 36% of Sheffield Utd's recent matches and 36% of Blackburn's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sheffield Utd vs Blackburn usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Sheffield Utd's recent games and 21% of Blackburn's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sheffield Utd and Blackburn tend to score early?
Sheffield Utd have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Blackburn in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Sheffield Utd edge out Blackburn 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sheffield Utd beat Blackburn 1-0 at Bramall Lane, Regular Season - 34, in the Championship. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sheffield Utd 1.05 xG and Blackburn 0.58 xG, a combined 1.63. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sheffield Utd attack 1.13 / defence 0.83 against Blackburn attack 0.66 / defence 0.86, drawn from 31/32 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sheffield Utd 46% | Draw 34% | Blackburn 20%, with Sheffield Utd to win its most likely call at 46%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 22%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 49% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 29% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sheffield Utd 45%, Blackburn 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sheffield Utd's trading profile (31 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and duly kept one.
Blackburn's trading profile (31 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sheffield Utd 1.61 PPG, Blackburn 1.65 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sheffield Utd win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.