QPR 1-1 Plymouth – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates QPR at 53%, yet other data sources diverge — this QPR vs Plymouth fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Championship clash, Regular Season - 3 as QPR welcome Plymouth to MATRADE Loftus Road. Kick-off is set for Saturday 24 August 2024 at 12:30 UTC.
Form Guide
QPR — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Championship outings this season, averaging 1.70 points per game. Last five: W W W L D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. QPR have played only a handful of Championship games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
QPR at MATRADE Loftus Road this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Championship games this season, Plymouth have recorded 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L L W L D. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Plymouth have played only a handful of Championship games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Plymouth away from home this season: 3W 1D 6L from 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
On current form, QPR have the edge — a 0.60 PPG advantage (1.70 vs 1.10) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, QPR have won 0, Plymouth 0, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The last 2 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 9 Apr 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
QPR in-play and half-time data (48 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 61% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Plymouth in-play and half-time data (48 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — QPR 48% versus Plymouth 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (QPR 48% | Plymouth 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects QPR 1.77 xG and Plymouth 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: QPR attack 0.941 / defence 1.169 | Plymouth attack 0.774 / defence 1.205. League average goals — home 1.557 / away 1.206. Plymouth bring a strong defensive rating of 1.205 — this is suppressing QPR's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 48 QPR games / 48 Plymouth games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: QPR 53% | Draw 23% | Plymouth 23%. Fair-value odds: QPR 1.89 | Draw 4.35 | Plymouth 4.35. QPR hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.86. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.86 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, QPR are the pick at 53% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on QPR offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.86 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 54% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates are neutral: QPR 60% | Plymouth 30%.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (48 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: QPR vs Plymouth | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: MATRADE Loftus Road • Kick-off: Saturday 24 Aug 2024, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: QPR 53% | Draw 23% | Plymouth 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 55% | xG QPR 1.77 / Plymouth 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: QPR attack 0.941 / def 1.169 | Plymouth attack 0.774 / def 1.205 | league avg home 1.557 / away 1.206 • Poisson stance: QPR (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.77
QPR xG
Expected Goals
1.09
Plymouth xG
55%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does QPR vs Plymouth kick off?
QPR vs Plymouth kicked off at 12:30 on Saturday 24 August 2024 at MATRADE Loftus Road.
What was the final score in QPR vs Plymouth?
QPR 1 - 1 Plymouth.
Where is QPR vs Plymouth being played?
The match is being played at MATRADE Loftus Road.
What competition is QPR vs Plymouth part of?
QPR vs Plymouth is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win QPR vs Plymouth?
Our statistical model gives QPR a 53% chance of winning, Plymouth a 23% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making QPR the favourite.
Will both teams score in QPR vs Plymouth?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both QPR and Plymouth will score (BTTS).
Will QPR vs Plymouth have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between QPR and Plymouth?
Record (2 meetings): QPR 0W | Draws 2 | Plymouth 0W.
What form are QPR and Plymouth in?
QPR (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-W-L-D. Plymouth (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from QPR's attack rating (0.94) and Plymouth's defence rating (1.21), the model arrives at 1.77 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Plymouth's attack versus QPR's defence, projects 1.09 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (48/48 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
QPR Win
53%
1.88
23%
4.27
23%
4.27
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.1%
Home win
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.77
QPR xG
Total xG
2.86
1.09
Plymouth xG
1.88
53%
Home win
4.27
23%
Draw
4.27
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.82
45%
BTTS No
2.23
Clean Sheet
34%
2.98
17%
5.85
Win to Nil
18%
5.61
4%
24.98
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 6.3 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.1 | 11.1 | 6.0 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.9 | 9.8 | 5.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.3 | 5.8 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.3 | 2.5 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for QPR vs Plymouth?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are QPR and Plymouth expected to score?
The model projects 1.77 expected goals for QPR and 1.09 for Plymouth, a combined total of 2.86.
How confident is the prediction model for QPR vs Plymouth?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
QPR come into this having played 48 games, going 15W 12D 21L for 1.19 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-L-D. It's still early in the season for QPR, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Plymouth sit at 1.08 PPG from 48 outings (13W 13D 22L), a run that reads L-L-W-L-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for Plymouth, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: QPR on 1.19 PPG, Plymouth on 1.08. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
QPR's home form reads 7W 6D 11L across 24 games on their own ground, a 1.12 PPG return.
Away from home, Plymouth have taken 0.67 points per game from 24 outings (3W 7D 14L). That's a step down from their 1.08 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Plymouth's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, QPR come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
QPR are averaging 1.04 goals scored and 1.31 conceded per game recently; Plymouth are on 1.25 scored and 1.56 conceded.
Last 48 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
QPR
Early Season
Plymouth
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are QPR and Plymouth in coming into this match?
QPR have gone 15W 12D 21L in their last 48 games (1.19 PPG), while Plymouth have gone 13W 13D 22L in their last 48 (1.08 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — QPR at home or Plymouth away?
QPR's home record (1.12 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — QPR at home: 1.12 PPG; Plymouth away: 0.67 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between QPR and Plymouth runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. It has been a while since the last meeting — 18 January 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
QPR's record when hosting Plymouth specifically: 0W 2D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
QPR
3
Draws
0
Plymouth
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between QPR and Plymouth?
From 4 meetings on record, QPR have won 1, Plymouth have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did QPR and Plymouth last play each other?
They last met on 18 January 2025, when Plymouth 0-1 QPR.
Who has won more matches between QPR and Plymouth?
QPR have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
QPR are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Plymouth are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — QPR 54%, Plymouth 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (QPR) and 50% (Plymouth).
On the defensive side: QPR have failed to score in 29% of games; Plymouth in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = QPR home games / Plymouth away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when QPR play Plymouth?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of QPR's recent matches and 50% of Plymouth's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is QPR vs Plymouth usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of QPR's recent games and 50% of Plymouth's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do QPR and Plymouth tend to score early?
QPR have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Plymouth in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
QPR and Plymouth share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at MATRADE Loftus Road, Regular Season - 3, as QPR and Plymouth drew 1-1 in the Championship. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting QPR 1.77 xG and Plymouth 1.09 xG, a combined 2.86. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of QPR attack 0.94 / defence 1.17 against Plymouth attack 0.77 / defence 1.21, drawn from 48/48 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it QPR 53% | Draw 23% | Plymouth 23%, with QPR to win its most likely call at 53%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (QPR 48%, Plymouth 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
QPR's trading profile (48 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Plymouth's trading profile (48 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — QPR 1.19 PPG, Plymouth 1.08 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.