Preston 1-1 QPR – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Preston at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Preston vs QPR fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Championship encounter, Regular Season - 41 sees QPR travel to Deepdale to take on Preston. The game is scheduled for Monday 6 April 2026, 15:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Preston stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 Championship matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L L L W D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Preston at Deepdale this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 home games — 1.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
QPR — All Games: 4W 1D 5L from 10 Championship fixtures this season — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L L W W W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.90. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
QPR's form when playing away from home: 2W 4D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Preston at 0.90 PPG versus QPR's 1.30. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H
The previous 9 encounters between these sides heavily favour QPR, who boast 6 victories compared to 2 for Preston.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 9 Aug 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.
It is worth noting that QPR have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 6 wins from 9 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
In-Play Data
Preston trading profile (86 games, 43 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 61% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games).
QPR trading profile (86 games, 43 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Preston 59% and QPR 63% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Preston 46% | QPR 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Preston 1.34 xG and QPR 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Preston attack 0.965 / defence 1.135 | QPR attack 0.861 / defence 1.061. League average goals — home 1.310 / away 1.206. Data: 86 Preston games / 86 QPR games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Preston 39% | Draw 29% | QPR 32%. Fair-value odds: Preston 2.56 | Draw 3.45 | QPR 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.52. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.52 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Preston at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Preston offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.52 combined xG gives a 46% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Preston 50% | QPR 50%.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Preston vs QPR | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 41 | Venue: Deepdale • Kick-off: Monday 6 Apr 2026, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Preston 39% | Draw 29% | QPR 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 52% | xG Preston 1.34 / QPR 1.18 • Poisson strength factors: Preston attack 0.965 / def 1.135 | QPR attack 0.861 / def 1.061 | league avg home 1.310 / away 1.206 • Poisson stance: Preston (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.34
Preston xG
Expected Goals
1.18
QPR xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Preston vs QPR kick off?
Preston vs QPR kicked off at 15:00 on Monday 6 April 2026 at Deepdale.
What was the final score in Preston vs QPR?
Preston 1 - 1 QPR.
Where is Preston vs QPR being played?
The match is being played at Deepdale.
What competition is Preston vs QPR part of?
Preston vs QPR is a Regular Season - 41 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Preston vs QPR?
Our statistical model gives Preston a 39% chance of winning, QPR a 32% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Preston the favourite.
Will both teams score in Preston vs QPR?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Preston and QPR will score (BTTS).
Will Preston vs QPR have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Preston and QPR?
Record (9 meetings): Preston 2W | Draws 1 | QPR 6W.
What form are Preston and QPR in?
Preston (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-L-W-D. QPR (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Preston's attack at 0.96x the league average against QPR's defence at 1.06x — combine the two and it projects 1.34 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, QPR's attack versus Preston's defence, projects 1.18 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 86/86 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.7%), 1-0 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Preston Win
39%
2.54
29%
3.44
32%
3.16
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.8%
Home win
0 – 1
9.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.34
Preston xG
Total xG
2.52
1.18
QPR xG
2.54
39%
Home win
3.44
29%
Draw
3.16
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.91
48%
BTTS No
2.10
Clean Sheet
31%
3.25
26%
3.83
Win to Nil
12%
8.26
8%
12.11
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.0 | 9.5 | 5.6 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.8 | 12.7 | 7.5 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 8.5 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 3.8 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Preston vs QPR?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Preston and QPR expected to score?
The model projects 1.34 expected goals for Preston and 1.18 for QPR, a combined total of 2.52.
How confident is the prediction model for Preston vs QPR?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 86 outings, Preston have picked up 1.20 PPG on a 23W 34D 29L record — L-L-L-W-D across the most recent five.
QPR's form line: 30W 22D 34L from 86 games, 1.30 PPG, last five L-L-W-W-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: Preston on 1.20 PPG, QPR on 1.30. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Preston have posted 1.47 PPG from 43 outings (15W 18D 10L).
On the road, QPR have gone 13W 12D 18L from 43 away games — 1.19 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Preston are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.28 conceded per game recently; QPR are on 1.28 scored and 1.45 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: QPR in 63%.
Last 86 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Preston
Current Season
QPR
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Preston and QPR in coming into this match?
Preston have gone 23W 34D 29L in their last 86 games (1.20 PPG), while QPR have gone 30W 22D 34L in their last 86 (1.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Preston at home or QPR away?
Preston's home record (1.47 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Preston at home: 1.47 PPG; QPR away: 1.19 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Preston and QPR runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. They last met on 6 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Preston's record when hosting QPR specifically: 1W 1D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Preston
2
Draws
6
QPR
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Preston and QPR?
From 10 meetings on record, Preston have won 2, QPR have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Preston and QPR last play each other?
They last met on 6 April 2026, when Preston 1-1 QPR.
Who has won more matches between Preston and QPR?
QPR have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Preston are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
QPR are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Preston 58%, QPR 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Preston) and 46% (QPR).
On the defensive side: Preston keep a clean sheet in 30% of their matches; QPR in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Preston home games / QPR away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Preston play QPR?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of Preston's games and 54% of QPR's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Preston vs QPR usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Preston's recent games and 46% of QPR's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Preston and QPR tend to score early?
Preston have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, QPR in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Preston and QPR share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Deepdale, Regular Season - 41, as Preston and QPR drew 1-1 in the Championship. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Preston 1.34 xG and QPR 1.18 xG, a combined 2.52. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Preston attack 0.96 / defence 1.14 against QPR attack 0.86 / defence 1.06, drawn from 86/86 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Preston 39% | Draw 29% | QPR 32%, with Preston to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Preston 46%, QPR 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Preston's trading profile (86 games, 43 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
QPR's trading profile (86 games, 43 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Preston 1.20 PPG, QPR 1.30 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.