Preston 0-0 Nottingham Forest – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Nottingham Forest at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Preston vs Nottingham Forest fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Preston and Nottingham Forest meet at Deepdale in Championship, Regular Season - 34. This fixture gets under way on Tuesday 22 February 2022 at 19:45 UTC.
Current Form
Preston's overall Championship record this term: 3W 5D 2L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: D W D W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
At home at Deepdale, Preston have gone 3W 5D 2L this season (10 games, 1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Nottingham Forest have collected 1.90 PPG across 10 Championship outings this season: 6W 1D 3L. Last five: W W L W D. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.00. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
On the road, Nottingham Forest have gone 5W 3D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Nottingham Forest arrive in superior form — a 0.50 PPG advantage (1.90 vs 1.40) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Preston lead 0W to 1W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 6 Nov 2021, ended 0–3 with Nottingham Forest winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Preston — key trading statistics (31 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Nottingham Forest — key trading statistics (31 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Preston 52% versus Nottingham Forest 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Preston 42% | Nottingham Forest 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Preston 0.94 xG and Nottingham Forest 1.47 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Preston attack 0.923 / defence 1.312 | Nottingham Forest attack 1.052 / defence 0.938. League average goals — home 1.085 / away 1.066. Data: 33 Preston games / 31 Nottingham Forest games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Preston 24% | Draw 26% | Nottingham Forest 49%. Fair-value odds: Preston 4.17 | Draw 3.85 | Nottingham Forest 2.04. Nottingham Forest hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.41. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.41 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Nottingham Forest as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Nottingham Forest if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.41 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 43% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 47% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Preston 80% | Nottingham Forest 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Preston vs Nottingham Forest | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: Deepdale • Kick-off: Tuesday 22 Feb 2022, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Preston 24% | Draw 26% | Nottingham Forest 49% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 47% | xG Preston 0.94 / Nottingham Forest 1.47 • Poisson strength factors: Preston attack 0.923 / def 1.312 | Nottingham Forest attack 1.052 / def 0.938 | league avg home 1.085 / away 1.066 • Poisson stance: Nottingham Forest (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.94
Preston xG
Expected Goals
1.47
Nottingham Forest xG
47%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Preston vs Nottingham Forest kick off?
Preston vs Nottingham Forest kicked off at 19:45 on Tuesday 22 February 2022 at Deepdale.
What was the final score in Preston vs Nottingham Forest?
Preston 0 - 0 Nottingham Forest.
Where is Preston vs Nottingham Forest being played?
The match is being played at Deepdale.
What competition is Preston vs Nottingham Forest part of?
Preston vs Nottingham Forest is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Preston vs Nottingham Forest?
Our statistical model gives Preston a 24% chance of winning, Nottingham Forest a 49% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Nottingham Forest the favourite.
Will both teams score in Preston vs Nottingham Forest?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Preston and Nottingham Forest will score (BTTS).
Will Preston vs Nottingham Forest have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Preston and Nottingham Forest?
Record (1 meetings): Preston 0W | Draws 0 | Nottingham Forest 1W.
What form are Preston and Nottingham Forest in?
Preston (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-W-D-W-L. Nottingham Forest (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Preston's attack rating (0.92) and Nottingham Forest's defence rating (0.94), the model arrives at 0.94 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Nottingham Forest's attack (1.05x) against Preston's defence (1.31x) — and the away total comes out at 1.47.
These ratings are built from 33/31 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.0%. Close behind: 0-1 (11.6%), 0-0 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Nottingham Forest Win
24%
4.16
26%
3.77
49%
2.02
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.2%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
0 – 2
9.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.94
Preston xG
Total xG
2.41
1.47
Nottingham Forest xG
4.16
24%
Home win
3.77
26%
Draw
2.02
49%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.13
53%
BTTS No
1.89
Clean Sheet
23%
4.36
39%
2.56
Win to Nil
6%
18.15
19%
5.17
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.0 | 13.2 | 9.7 | 4.8 | 1.8 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.4 | 12.4 | 9.1 | 4.5 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.0 | 5.8 | 4.3 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 1.8 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Preston vs Nottingham Forest?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Preston and Nottingham Forest expected to score?
The model projects 0.94 expected goals for Preston and 1.47 for Nottingham Forest, a combined total of 2.41.
How confident is the prediction model for Preston vs Nottingham Forest?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Preston's recent record stands at 11W 12D 8L from 31 games, a 1.45 PPG return, with D-W-D-W-L in the last five.
Nottingham Forest, meanwhile, have gone 13W 8D 10L across 31 games — 1.52 PPG, with W-W-L-W-D in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.45 PPG for Preston against 1.52 for Nottingham Forest. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Preston have managed 5W 8D 2L from 15 games — 1.53 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Nottingham Forest's away record stands at 7W 4D 4L across 15 trips, a 1.67 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Preston are averaging 1.13 goals scored and 1.03 conceded per game recently; Nottingham Forest are on 1.39 scored and 1.06 conceded.
Last 31 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Preston
Current Season
Nottingham Forest
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Preston and Nottingham Forest in coming into this match?
Preston have gone 11W 12D 8L in their last 31 games (1.45 PPG), while Nottingham Forest have gone 13W 8D 10L in their last 31 (1.52 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Preston at home or Nottingham Forest away?
Nottingham Forest's away record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Preston at home: 1.53 PPG; Nottingham Forest away: 1.67 PPG.
Have Preston or Nottingham Forest been keeping clean sheets recently?
Preston have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Nottingham Forest in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. It has been a while since the last meeting — 22 February 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Preston
1
Draws
1
Nottingham Forest
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Preston and Nottingham Forest?
From 2 meetings on record, Preston have won 0, Nottingham Forest have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Preston and Nottingham Forest last play each other?
They last met on 22 February 2022, when Preston 0-0 Nottingham Forest.
Who has won more matches between Preston and Nottingham Forest?
Nottingham Forest have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Preston are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 27% of those situations.
Nottingham Forest are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 27% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Preston 73%, Nottingham Forest 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Preston) and 40% (Nottingham Forest).
On the defensive side: Nottingham Forest in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Preston home games / Nottingham Forest away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Preston play Nottingham Forest?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 73% of Preston's games and 53% of Nottingham Forest's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Preston vs Nottingham Forest usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Preston's recent games and 40% of Nottingham Forest's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Preston and Nottingham Forest tend to score early?
Preston have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Nottingham Forest in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Preston's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Preston and Nottingham Forest finished level at 0-0 at Deepdale, Regular Season - 34, in the Championship. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Preston 0.94 xG and Nottingham Forest 1.47 xG, a combined 2.41. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Preston fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Nottingham Forest landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Preston attack 0.92 / defence 1.31 against Nottingham Forest attack 1.05 / defence 0.94, drawn from 33/31 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Preston 24% | Draw 26% | Nottingham Forest 49%, with Nottingham Forest to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 69% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Preston 42%, Nottingham Forest 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Preston's trading profile (31 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Nottingham Forest's trading profile (31 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Preston 1.45 PPG, Nottingham Forest 1.52 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Preston (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.40 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.07 average — tighter than their form line. Nottingham Forest (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.47 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.87 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.