Preston 1-1 Birmingham – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Preston at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this Preston vs Birmingham fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Championship encounter, Regular Season - 27 sees Birmingham travel to Deepdale to take on Preston. The game is scheduled for Saturday 15 January 2022, 15:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Preston stand at 5W 1D 4L from 10 Championship matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W D L W W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Preston, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Preston's home record at Deepdale: 5W 4D 1L from 10 Championship appearances (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Championship games this season, Birmingham have recorded 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W L D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Birmingham, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Championship this season, Birmingham have posted 1W 3D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.60 PPG. Away from home they average 0.40 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Preston carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.50 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.60 vs 1.10. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Preston, 0 for Birmingham and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 0.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 25 Sep 2021, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Preston in-play tendencies (23 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Birmingham in-play tendencies (23 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 18% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games); they fail to score in 48% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Preston 61% versus Birmingham 30%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Preston 52% | Birmingham 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Preston 1.38 xG and Birmingham 0.80 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Preston attack 1.007 / defence 1.077 | Birmingham attack 0.649 / defence 1.357. League average goals — home 1.007 / away 1.147. Birmingham bring a strong defensive rating of 1.357 — this is suppressing Preston's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 23 Preston games / 24 Birmingham games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Preston 50% | Draw 28% | Birmingham 21%. Fair-value odds: Preston 2.00 | Draw 3.57 | Birmingham 4.76. Preston hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.18. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.18 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Preston at 50% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Preston offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.18 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 37% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 42%. Form rates corroborate: Preston 70% | Birmingham 20% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Preston vs Birmingham | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Deepdale • Kick-off: Saturday 15 Jan 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Preston 50% | Draw 28% | Birmingham 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 42% | xG Preston 1.38 / Birmingham 0.80 • Poisson strength factors: Preston attack 1.007 / def 1.077 | Birmingham attack 0.649 / def 1.357 | league avg home 1.007 / away 1.147 • Poisson stance: Preston (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.38
Preston xG
Expected Goals
0.80
Birmingham xG
42%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Preston vs Birmingham kick off?
Preston vs Birmingham kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 15 January 2022 at Deepdale.
What was the final score in Preston vs Birmingham?
Preston 1 - 1 Birmingham.
Where is Preston vs Birmingham being played?
The match is being played at Deepdale.
What competition is Preston vs Birmingham part of?
Preston vs Birmingham is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Preston vs Birmingham?
Our statistical model gives Preston a 50% chance of winning, Birmingham a 21% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Preston the favourite.
Will both teams score in Preston vs Birmingham?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Preston and Birmingham will score (BTTS).
Will Preston vs Birmingham have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Preston and Birmingham?
Record (1 meetings): Preston 0W | Draws 1 | Birmingham 0W.
What form are Preston and Birmingham in?
Preston (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-L-W-W. Birmingham (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Preston's attacking strength (1.01x league average) is weighed against Birmingham's defensive record (1.36x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.38. The same calculation in reverse, Birmingham's attack versus Preston's defence, projects 0.80 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 23/24 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.1%. Close behind: 1-0 (14.0%), 0-0 (13.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Preston Win
50%
2.00
28%
3.51
21%
4.66
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
0 – 0
11.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.38
Preston xG
Total xG
2.18
0.80
Birmingham xG
2.00
50%
Home win
3.51
28%
Draw
4.66
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.40
58%
BTTS No
1.71
Clean Sheet
45%
2.23
25%
3.96
Win to Nil
22%
4.45
5%
18.45
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.3 | 9.1 | 3.6 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 15.6 | 12.5 | 5.0 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 10.7 | 8.6 | 3.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.9 | 3.9 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Preston vs Birmingham?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Preston and Birmingham expected to score?
The model projects 1.38 expected goals for Preston and 0.80 for Birmingham, a combined total of 2.18.
How confident is the prediction model for Preston vs Birmingham?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Preston come into this having played 23 games, going 8W 7D 8L for 1.35 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-L-W-W. The sample for Preston is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Birmingham sit at 1.04 PPG from 23 outings (6W 6D 11L), a run that reads W-L-D-L-L across their last five. The sample for Birmingham is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Preston on 1.35 PPG, Birmingham on 1.04. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Preston's home form reads 5W 4D 2L across 11 games on their own ground, a 1.73 PPG return.
Away from home, Birmingham have taken 0.82 points per game from 11 outings (2W 3D 6L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Preston come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Preston are averaging 1.13 goals scored and 1.26 conceded per game recently; Birmingham are on 0.96 scored and 1.39 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Preston have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Defensively: Birmingham in 39% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 23 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Preston
Blended
Birmingham
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Preston and Birmingham in coming into this match?
Preston have gone 8W 7D 8L in their last 23 games (1.35 PPG), while Birmingham have gone 6W 6D 11L in their last 23 (1.04 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Preston at home or Birmingham away?
Preston's home record (1.73 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Preston at home: 1.73 PPG; Birmingham away: 0.82 PPG.
Have Preston or Birmingham been keeping clean sheets recently?
Preston have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, Birmingham in 39%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. They last met on 22 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Birmingham have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Preston's record when hosting Birmingham specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Preston
2
Draws
4
Birmingham
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Preston and Birmingham?
From 8 meetings on record, Preston have won 2, Birmingham have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Preston and Birmingham last play each other?
They last met on 22 April 2026, when Birmingham 2-1 Preston.
Who has won more matches between Preston and Birmingham?
Birmingham have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Preston are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Birmingham are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Preston 73%, Birmingham 18% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Preston) and 36% (Birmingham).
On the defensive side: Birmingham in 36%; Birmingham in 64%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Preston home games / Birmingham away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Preston play Birmingham?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 73% of Preston's recent matches and 18% of Birmingham's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Preston vs Birmingham usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Preston's recent games and 36% of Birmingham's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Preston and Birmingham tend to score early?
Preston have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, Birmingham in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Preston and Birmingham share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Preston and Birmingham finished level at 1-1 at Deepdale, Regular Season - 27, in the Championship. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Preston 1.38 xG and Birmingham 0.80 xG, a combined 2.18. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Preston attack 1.01 / defence 1.08 against Birmingham attack 0.65 / defence 1.36, drawn from 23/24 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Preston 50% | Draw 28% | Birmingham 21%, with Preston to win its most likely call at 50%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Preston 52%, Birmingham 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Preston's trading profile (23 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Birmingham's trading profile (23 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 30% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Preston 1.35 PPG, Birmingham 1.04 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.