Plymouth 1-1 QPR – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates QPR at 46% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Plymouth vs QPR encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
QPR travel to Home Park to take on Plymouth in Championship (matchday 42). The game is scheduled for Tuesday 9 April 2024 at 20:45 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Plymouth stand at 2W 1D 7L — 0.70 PPG. Last five: D L L L W. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
Plymouth's home record over their last 10 home games: 2W 3D 5L (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
Across their last 10 games, QPR have recorded 5W 2D 3L — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L D W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
QPR's away record over their last 10 away games: 5W 2D 3L (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (50%) — they are hard to break down on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. QPR are 1.00 PPG ahead (1.70 vs 0.70), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 1 H2H match, Plymouth have won 0, QPR 0, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 1 H2H match in our data have been tight, averaging just 0.0 goals per game — a meaningful input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent of those, on 13 Dec 2023, ended Plymouth 0–0 QPR — a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Plymouth in-play tendencies (last 87 games, 43 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 72% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; of the 20 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 45%; BTTS occurs in 49% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games).
QPR in-play tendencies (last 87 games, 43 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 63% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 18 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 28%; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Plymouth 54% versus QPR 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Plymouth 56% | QPR 47%). Note also that QPR surrender HT leads in 28% of cases while Plymouth recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 45% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Plymouth 0.91 xG and QPR 1.30 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Plymouth attack 0.930 / defence 1.364 | QPR attack 0.788 / defence 0.737. League average goals — home 1.323 / away 1.207. QPR bring a tight defence (rating 0.737, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Plymouth's projected output down. QPR's attack rating of 0.788 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.30. Plymouth's defence rating of 1.364 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing QPR's projected output up. Data: built from Plymouth's last 41 games and QPR's last 87.
Result probabilities: Plymouth 26% | Draw 28% | QPR 46%. Fair-value odds: Plymouth 3.84 | Draw 3.52 | QPR 2.19. QPR hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS Yes probability 43% | Total xG 2.21. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.21 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 57% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is QPR at 46% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on QPR offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.21 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 62% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Plymouth 50% (last 10 home games) | QPR 30% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Plymouth vs QPR | Competition: Championship, matchday 42 | Venue: Home Park • Kick-off: Tuesday 9 April 2024 at 20:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Plymouth 26% | Draw 28% | QPR 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% (Under 62%) | BTTS Yes 43% (No 57%) | xG Plymouth 0.91 / QPR 1.30 • Poisson strength factors: Plymouth attack 0.930 / def 1.364 | QPR attack 0.788 / def 0.737 | league avg home 1.323 / away 1.207 • Poisson stance: QPR (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.91
Plymouth xG
Expected Goals
1.30
QPR xG
43%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Plymouth vs QPR FAQs
What time does Plymouth vs QPR kick off?
Plymouth vs QPR kicked off at 20:45 UK time on Tuesday 9 April 2024 at Home Park.
What was the final score in Plymouth vs QPR?
Plymouth 1 - 1 QPR.
Where is Plymouth vs QPR being played?
The match is being played at Home Park.
What competition is Plymouth vs QPR part of?
Plymouth vs QPR is a Championship fixture (matchday 42) (England).
Who is favourite to win Plymouth vs QPR?
Our statistical model gives Plymouth a 26% chance of winning, QPR a 46% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making QPR the favourite.
Will both teams score in Plymouth vs QPR?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Plymouth and QPR will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (57%).
Will Plymouth vs QPR have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (62%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Plymouth's attacking strength (0.93x league average) is weighed against QPR's defensive record (0.74x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.91. The same calculation in reverse, QPR's attack versus Plymouth's defence, projects 1.30 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Plymouth's last 41 games and QPR's last 87 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.7%), 0-1 (12.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
QPR Win
26%
3.84
28%
3.52
46%
2.19
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.3%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
0 – 0
11.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.91
Plymouth xG
Total xG
2.21
1.30
QPR xG
3.84
26%
Home win
3.52
28%
Draw
2.19
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.31
57%
BTTS No
1.76
Clean Sheet
27%
3.66
40%
2.48
Win to Nil
7%
14.05
18%
5.44
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.0 | 14.3 | 9.3 | 4.0 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.0 | 13.0 | 8.4 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 5.9 | 3.8 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Plymouth vs QPR Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Plymouth vs QPR?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Plymouth and QPR expected to score?
The model projects 0.91 expected goals for Plymouth and 1.30 for QPR, a combined total of 2.21.
How confident is the prediction model for Plymouth vs QPR?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 87 outings, Plymouth have picked up 1.67 PPG on a 42W 19D 26L record — D-L-L-L-W across the most recent five.
QPR's form line: 25W 21D 41L from 87 games, 1.10 PPG, last five L-D-W-W-L.
Put side by side, Plymouth are the form team by 0.57 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against QPR.
Venue Form
On home soil, Plymouth have posted 2.07 PPG from their last 43 home games (28W 5D 10L).
On the road, QPR have gone 14W 10D 19L from their last 43 away games — 1.21 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Plymouth come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Plymouth are averaging 1.59 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; QPR are on 0.95 scored and 1.43 conceded.
Last 87 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Plymouth
Current Season
QPR
Current Season
Plymouth (Home) vs QPR (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Plymouth
Current Season
QPR
Current Season
❓ Plymouth vs QPR Form FAQs
What form are Plymouth and QPR in coming into this match?
Plymouth have gone 42W 19D 26L in their last 87 games (1.67 PPG), while QPR have gone 25W 21D 41L in their last 87 (1.10 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Plymouth at home or QPR away?
Plymouth's home record (2.07 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Plymouth at home: 2.07 PPG; QPR away: 1.21 PPG.
Have Plymouth or QPR been keeping clean sheets recently?
Plymouth have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, QPR in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 4 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 1 year from December 2023. All of them came in Championship. The most recent in our data was on 18 January 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Plymouth's record when hosting QPR specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Plymouth
3
Draws
1
QPR
Recent Meetings
❓ Plymouth vs QPR H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Plymouth and QPR?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Plymouth have won 0, QPR have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Plymouth and QPR last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 18 January 2025: Plymouth 0-1 QPR.
Who has won more matches between Plymouth and QPR?
QPR have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Plymouth are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 57% of those situations.
QPR are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Plymouth 49%, QPR 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Plymouth) and 42% (QPR).
On the defensive side: Plymouth keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; QPR in 30%; QPR in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Plymouth home games / QPR away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Plymouth vs QPR Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Plymouth and QPR matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 49% of Plymouth's recent matches and 42% of QPR's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Plymouth and QPR matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 58% of Plymouth's recent games and 42% of QPR's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Plymouth and QPR matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 72% of Plymouth's recent matches and 63% of QPR's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Plymouth and QPR share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Home Park, Regular Season - 42, as Plymouth and QPR drew 1-1 in the Championship. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Plymouth 0.91 xG and QPR 1.30 xG, a combined 2.21. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Plymouth attack 0.93 / defence 1.36 against QPR attack 0.79 / defence 0.74, drawn from 41/87 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Plymouth 26% | Draw 28% | QPR 46%, with QPR to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Plymouth 56%, QPR 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Plymouth's trading profile (87 games, 43 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
QPR's trading profile (87 games, 43 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Plymouth arrived the stronger side — 1.67 PPG against 1.10. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Plymouth (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.91 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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