Plymouth 1-0 Portsmouth – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Plymouth at 61% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Plymouth face Portsmouth.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Plymouth and Portsmouth meet at Home Park in Championship (matchday 14). This fixture gets under way on Tuesday 5 November 2024 at 20:00 UK time.
Current Form
Plymouth's record over their last 10 games: 3W 1D 6L (1.00 PPG). Last five: W L L D L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market.
Plymouth at home: 5W 3D 2L from their last 10 home games — 1.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Plymouth are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Portsmouth have collected 0.60 PPG across their last 10 games: 1W 3D 6L. Last five: D W L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Portsmouth have gone 3W 4D 3L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.30 exceeds their overall 0.60 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.00 vs 0.60 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (from Plymouth's last 10 home games and Portsmouth's last 10 away games) — Plymouth have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Portsmouth in 80%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated the 4 H2H matches in our data: 2 wins for Plymouth, 0 for Portsmouth and 2 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral.
The 4 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.2 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 11 Feb 2023, ended Plymouth 3–1 Portsmouth — a Plymouth win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.2 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Plymouth half-time and goal-timing data (last 59 games, 29 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 31%; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Portsmouth half-time and goal-timing data (last 59 games, 29 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 59% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; of the 22 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 27%; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 42%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Plymouth 51% versus Portsmouth 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Plymouth 54% | Portsmouth 58%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Plymouth surrender their half-time lead 31% of the time, while Portsmouth have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 42% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Plymouth 2.49 xG and Portsmouth 1.35 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Plymouth attack 1.227 / defence 1.316 | Portsmouth attack 1.011 / defence 1.491. League average goals — home 1.363 / away 1.014. Portsmouth's defence rating of 1.491 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Plymouth's projected output up. Plymouth's defence rating of 1.316 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Portsmouth's projected output up. Data: built from Plymouth's last 59 games and Portsmouth's last 13.
Result probabilities: Plymouth 61% | Draw 20% | Portsmouth 18%. Fair-value odds: Plymouth 1.63 | Draw 4.92 | Portsmouth 5.46. The model has a clear lean to Plymouth (61%) — a 41pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 74% | BTTS Yes probability 69% | Total xG 3.84. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 74% — a total xG of 3.84 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 69% — both xG figures (2.49 / 1.35) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Plymouth at 61% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.84 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 74% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Plymouth's last 10 home games and Portsmouth's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.2 goals per game across 4 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 69% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Plymouth 60% (last 10 home games) | Portsmouth 80% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Plymouth vs Portsmouth | Competition: Championship, matchday 14 | Venue: Home Park • Kick-off: Tuesday 5 November 2024 at 20:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Plymouth 61% | Draw 20% | Portsmouth 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 74% (Under 26%) | BTTS Yes 69% (No 31%) | xG Plymouth 2.49 / Portsmouth 1.35 • Poisson strength factors: Plymouth attack 1.227 / def 1.316 | Portsmouth attack 1.011 / def 1.491 | league avg home 1.363 / away 1.014 • Poisson stance: Plymouth (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.49
Plymouth xG
Expected Goals
1.35
Portsmouth xG
69%
BTTS
91%
Over 1.5
74%
Over 2.5
54%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Plymouth vs Portsmouth FAQs
What time does Plymouth vs Portsmouth kick off?
Plymouth vs Portsmouth kicked off at 20:00 UK time on Tuesday 5 November 2024 at Home Park.
What was the final score in Plymouth vs Portsmouth?
Plymouth 1 - 0 Portsmouth.
Where is Plymouth vs Portsmouth being played?
The match is being played at Home Park.
What competition is Plymouth vs Portsmouth part of?
Plymouth vs Portsmouth is a Championship fixture (matchday 14) (England).
Who is favourite to win Plymouth vs Portsmouth?
Our statistical model gives Plymouth a 61% chance of winning, Portsmouth a 18% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Plymouth the favourite.
Will both teams score in Plymouth vs Portsmouth?
Our model estimates a 69% probability that both Plymouth and Portsmouth will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Plymouth vs Portsmouth have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 74%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Plymouth's attack rating (1.23) and Portsmouth's defence rating (1.49), the model arrives at 2.49 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Portsmouth's attack (1.01x) against Plymouth's defence (1.32x) — and the away total comes out at 1.35.
These ratings are built from Plymouth's last 59 games and Portsmouth's last 13 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.0%. Close behind: 1-1 (8.2%), 3-1 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Plymouth Win
61%
1.63
20%
4.92
18%
5.46
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 1
7.5%
Home win
1 – 1
7.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.49
Plymouth xG
Total xG
3.84
1.35
Portsmouth xG
1.63
61%
Home win
4.92
20%
Draw
5.46
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
90%
Over 1.5
1.11
10%
Under 1.5
10.00
74%
Over 2.5
1.35
26%
Under 2.5
3.85
54%
Over 3.5
1.85
46%
Under 3.5
2.17
34%
Over 4.5
2.94
66%
Under 4.5
1.52
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
69%
BTTS Yes
1.45
31%
BTTS No
3.22
Clean Sheet
26%
3.85
8%
12.10
Win to Nil
16%
6.28
2%
66.11
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.1 | 2.9 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 5.3 | 7.2 | 4.9 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 9.0 | 6.1 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.5 | 7.5 | 5.0 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 3.5 | 4.7 | 3.1 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.7 | 2.3 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Plymouth vs Portsmouth Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Plymouth vs Portsmouth?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.0%.
How many goals are Plymouth and Portsmouth expected to score?
The model projects 2.49 expected goals for Plymouth and 1.35 for Portsmouth, a combined total of 3.84.
How confident is the prediction model for Plymouth vs Portsmouth?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 59 outings, Plymouth have picked up 1.07 PPG on a 16W 15D 28L record — W-L-L-D-L across the most recent five.
Portsmouth's form line: 29W 19D 11L from 59 games, 1.80 PPG, last five D-W-L-L-D.
Put side by side, Portsmouth are the form team by 0.73 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Plymouth.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Plymouth have posted 1.59 PPG from their last 29 home games (13W 7D 9L). That's noticeably better than their 1.07 PPG overall — Plymouth are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Portsmouth have gone 13W 11D 5L from their last 29 away games — 1.72 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Plymouth are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 1.61 conceded per game recently; Portsmouth are on 1.54 scored and 1.14 conceded.
Defensively: Portsmouth in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 59 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Plymouth
Blended
Portsmouth
Blended
Plymouth (Home) vs Portsmouth (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Plymouth
Blended
Portsmouth
Blended
❓ Plymouth vs Portsmouth Form FAQs
What form are Plymouth and Portsmouth in coming into this match?
Plymouth have gone 16W 15D 28L in their last 59 games (1.07 PPG), while Portsmouth have gone 29W 19D 11L in their last 59 (1.80 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Plymouth at home or Portsmouth away?
Portsmouth's away record (1.72 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Plymouth at home: 1.59 PPG; Portsmouth away: 1.72 PPG.
Have Plymouth or Portsmouth been keeping clean sheets recently?
Plymouth have kept a clean sheet in 19% of their recent games, Portsmouth in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 6 H2H matches between Plymouth and Portsmouth, the earliest from September 2021. They cover more than one competition — League One, Championship. The most recent in our data was on 12 March 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Plymouth have won each of the latest 3 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Plymouth have gone 3W 0D 0L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Portsmouth — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
4
Plymouth
2
Draws
0
Portsmouth
Recent Meetings
❓ Plymouth vs Portsmouth H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Plymouth and Portsmouth?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Plymouth have won 4, Portsmouth have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Plymouth and Portsmouth last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 12 March 2025: Portsmouth 1-2 Plymouth.
Who has won more matches between Plymouth and Portsmouth?
Plymouth have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Plymouth are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 27% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 60% of those situations.
Portsmouth see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 30% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Plymouth 59%, Portsmouth 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Plymouth) and 48% (Portsmouth). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 41% and 24% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Portsmouth in 45%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Plymouth home games / Portsmouth away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Plymouth vs Portsmouth Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Plymouth and Portsmouth matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of Plymouth's games and 52% of Portsmouth's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Plymouth and Portsmouth matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Plymouth's matches and 48% of Portsmouth's.
Do Plymouth and Portsmouth matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 69% of Plymouth's recent matches and 59% of Portsmouth's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Plymouth edge out Portsmouth 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Plymouth beat Portsmouth 1-0 at Home Park, Regular Season - 14, in the Championship. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Plymouth 2.49 xG and Portsmouth 1.35 xG, a combined 3.84. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Plymouth fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Portsmouth landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Plymouth attack 1.23 / defence 1.32 against Portsmouth attack 1.01 / defence 1.49, drawn from 59/13 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Plymouth 61% | Draw 20% | Portsmouth 18%, with Plymouth to win its most likely call at 61%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 74%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 91% and missed. Over 3.5 was 54% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 69% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Plymouth 54%, Portsmouth 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Plymouth's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not.
Portsmouth's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Portsmouth arrived the stronger side — 1.80 PPG against 1.07. Form was overturned, with Plymouth winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Plymouth (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.83 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.52 average — tighter than their form line. Portsmouth (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.41 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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