Plymouth 0-5 Burnley – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Burnley at 51% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Plymouth vs Burnley encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Plymouth welcome Burnley to Home Park in Championship (matchday 28). Kick-off is Wednesday 22 January 2025 at 20:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Plymouth — last 10 games: 0W 4D 6L, averaging 0.40 points per game. Last five: L D D D L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
Plymouth's form when playing at home: 3W 5D 2L across their last 10 home games (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.40 — Plymouth are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Burnley stand at 5W 5D 0L — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W D D W D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.30 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Burnley's away record over their last 10 away games: 6W 3D 1L (2.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 0.30 conceded per game. 7 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (70%) — they are hard to break down on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Form points away from home here. Burnley's 2.00 PPG return is 1.60 points per game ahead of Plymouth's 0.40 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 1 H2H match, Plymouth have won 0, Burnley 1, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
Scoring has been limited in the 1 H2H match in our data, averaging 1.0 goals per game, which makes Under 2.5 the head-to-head-backed angle in the goals market. The most recent of those, on 1 Oct 2024, ended Plymouth 0–1 Burnley — a Burnley win.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Plymouth in-play and half-time data (last 65 games, 32 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 40%; of the 22 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 32%; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
Burnley in-play and half-time data (last 65 games, 32 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 72% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Plymouth 48% versus Burnley 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Plymouth 49% | Burnley 43%). Note also that Burnley surrender HT leads in 25% of cases while Plymouth recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 32% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Plymouth 0.75 xG and Burnley 1.38 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Plymouth attack 1.033 / defence 1.383 | Burnley attack 0.998 / defence 0.527. League average goals — home 1.380 / away 1.002. Burnley bring a tight defence (rating 0.527, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Plymouth's projected output down. Plymouth's defence rating of 1.383 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Burnley's projected output up. Data: built from Plymouth's last 73 games and Burnley's last 27.
Result probabilities: Plymouth 19% | Draw 30% | Burnley 51%. Fair-value odds: Plymouth 5.18 | Draw 3.35 | Burnley 1.97. Burnley hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS Yes probability 41% | Total xG 2.13. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.13 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 59% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Burnley at 51% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Burnley offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.13 combined xG gives a 64% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Plymouth 80% (last 10 home games) | Burnley 20% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Plymouth vs Burnley | Competition: Championship, matchday 28 | Venue: Home Park • Kick-off: Wednesday 22 January 2025 at 20:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Plymouth 19% | Draw 30% | Burnley 51% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% (Under 64%) | BTTS Yes 41% (No 59%) | xG Plymouth 0.75 / Burnley 1.38 • Poisson strength factors: Plymouth attack 1.033 / def 1.383 | Burnley attack 0.998 / def 0.527 | league avg home 1.380 / away 1.002 • Poisson stance: Burnley (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.75
Plymouth xG
Expected Goals
1.38
Burnley xG
41%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Plymouth vs Burnley FAQs
What time does Plymouth vs Burnley kick off?
Plymouth vs Burnley kicked off at 20:00 UK time on Wednesday 22 January 2025 at Home Park.
What was the final score in Plymouth vs Burnley?
Plymouth 0 - 5 Burnley.
Where is Plymouth vs Burnley being played?
The match is being played at Home Park.
What competition is Plymouth vs Burnley part of?
Plymouth vs Burnley is a Championship fixture (matchday 28) (England).
Who is favourite to win Plymouth vs Burnley?
Our statistical model gives Plymouth a 19% chance of winning, Burnley a 51% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Burnley the favourite.
Will both teams score in Plymouth vs Burnley?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Plymouth and Burnley will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (59%).
Will Plymouth vs Burnley have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (64%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Plymouth's attack rating (1.03) and Burnley's defence rating (0.53), the model arrives at 0.75 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Burnley's attack versus Plymouth's defence, projects 1.38 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Plymouth's last 73 games and Burnley's last 27 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.8%. Close behind: 1-1 (13.9%), 0-0 (13.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Burnley Win
19%
5.18
30%
3.35
51%
1.97
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
16.4%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
0 – 0
11.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.75
Plymouth xG
Total xG
2.13
1.38
Burnley xG
5.18
19%
Home win
3.35
30%
Draw
1.97
51%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.46
59%
BTTS No
1.68
Clean Sheet
25%
3.98
47%
2.12
Win to Nil
5%
20.63
24%
4.16
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.8 | 16.4 | 11.3 | 5.2 | 1.8 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.9 | 12.3 | 8.5 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 3.3 | 4.6 | 3.2 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Plymouth vs Burnley Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Plymouth vs Burnley?
Our Poisson model rates 0-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Plymouth and Burnley expected to score?
The model projects 0.75 expected goals for Plymouth and 1.38 for Burnley, a combined total of 2.13.
How confident is the prediction model for Plymouth vs Burnley?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 65 outings, Plymouth have picked up 0.95 PPG on a 14W 20D 31L record — L-D-D-D-L across the most recent five.
Burnley's form line: 19W 20D 26L from 65 games, 1.18 PPG, last five W-D-D-W-D.
Form-wise this is close to level: Plymouth on 0.95 PPG, Burnley on 1.18. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Plymouth have posted 1.38 PPG from their last 32 home games (11W 11D 10L). That's noticeably better than their 0.95 PPG overall — Plymouth are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Burnley have gone 11W 8D 13L from their last 32 away games — 1.28 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Plymouth are averaging 1.05 goals scored and 1.72 conceded per game recently; Burnley are on 1.11 scored and 1.34 conceded.
Last 65 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Plymouth
Blended
Burnley
Blended
Plymouth (Home) vs Burnley (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Plymouth
Blended
Burnley
Blended
❓ Plymouth vs Burnley Form FAQs
What form are Plymouth and Burnley in coming into this match?
Plymouth have gone 14W 20D 31L in their last 65 games (0.95 PPG), while Burnley have gone 19W 20D 26L in their last 65 (1.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Plymouth at home or Burnley away?
Plymouth's home record (1.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Plymouth at home: 1.38 PPG; Burnley away: 1.28 PPG.
Have Plymouth or Burnley been keeping clean sheets recently?
Plymouth have kept a clean sheet in 17% of their recent games, Burnley in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 2 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 1 year from October 2024. All of them came in Championship. The most recent in our data was on 22 January 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Plymouth
0
Draws
2
Burnley
Recent Meetings
❓ Plymouth vs Burnley H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Plymouth and Burnley?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, Plymouth have won 0, Burnley have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Plymouth and Burnley last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 22 January 2025: Plymouth 0-5 Burnley.
Who has won more matches between Plymouth and Burnley?
Burnley have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 2 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Plymouth are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 40% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 67% of those situations.
Burnley are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 27% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Plymouth 59%, Burnley 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Plymouth) and 44% (Burnley).
On the defensive side: Burnley in 31%; Burnley in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Plymouth home games / Burnley away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Plymouth vs Burnley Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Plymouth and Burnley matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 59% of Plymouth's recent matches and 47% of Burnley's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Plymouth and Burnley matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Plymouth's recent games and 44% of Burnley's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Plymouth and Burnley matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 69% of Plymouth's recent matches and 72% of Burnley's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Burnley run riot with a 0-5 hammering of Plymouth.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Burnley beat Plymouth 0-5 at Home Park, Regular Season - 28, in the Championship. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Plymouth 0.75 xG and Burnley 1.38 xG, a combined 2.13. The scoreboard read 0-5 for 5 actual goals. Burnley outscored their 1.38 projection by 3.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Plymouth attack 1.03 / defence 1.38 against Burnley attack 1.00 / defence 0.53, drawn from 73/27 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Plymouth 19% | Draw 30% | Burnley 51%, with Burnley to win its most likely call at 51%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. Over 3.5 was 17% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Plymouth 49%, Burnley 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Plymouth's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Burnley's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Plymouth 0.95 PPG, Burnley 1.18 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Burnley win broke the near-deadlock. Plymouth (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.56 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 5 against a 1.56 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Burnley (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.16 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.22 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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