Peterborough 0-0 Bournemouth – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 36% as Peterborough take on Bournemouth.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Championship clash, Regular Season - 10 as Peterborough welcome Bournemouth to Weston Homes Stadium. Kick-off is set for Wednesday 29 September 2021 at 19:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Championship games this season, Peterborough have gone 2W 1D 6L from 9 outings — a 0.78 PPG return. Last five: L L L W L. They are averaging 1.11 goals per game and conceding 2.22 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.22 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 9 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Peterborough, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Peterborough's home record at Weston Homes Stadium: 2W 1D 1L from 4 Championship appearances (1.75 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.75 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.75 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.78 — Peterborough are significantly better at Weston Homes Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Bournemouth stand at 6W 3D 0L from 9 Championship matches — 2.33 PPG. Last five: D W W W W. They are scoring at 1.78 per game and conceding 0.78. Defensively, 0.78 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 9 outings (44%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Bournemouth, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Championship this season, Bournemouth have posted 3W 1D 0L from 4 away outings — 2.50 PPG. Away from home they average 1.25 goals scored and 0.25 conceded per game. 3 away clean sheets from 4 games (75%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 25% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Form points away from home here. Bournemouth's 2.33 PPG return is 1.55 points per game ahead of Peterborough's 0.78 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Trading Patterns
Peterborough in-play and half-time data (9 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 25% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 80% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
Bournemouth in-play and half-time data (9 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 25% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; they lead at the break 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Peterborough 44% versus Bournemouth 56%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Peterborough 78% | Bournemouth 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Peterborough 1.06 xG and Bournemouth 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Peterborough attack 1.174 / defence 1.046 | Bournemouth attack 0.792 / defence 0.872. League average goals — home 1.040 / away 1.184. Data: 9 Peterborough games / 9 Bournemouth games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Peterborough 34% | Draw 36% | Bournemouth 30%. Fair-value odds: Peterborough 2.94 | Draw 2.78 | Bournemouth 3.33. The draw (36%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.05. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.05 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 36% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 34% and away win at 30% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 2.05 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 34% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 44% on No. Form rates corroborate: Peterborough 50% | Bournemouth 25% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Peterborough vs Bournemouth | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Weston Homes Stadium • Kick-off: Wednesday 29 Sep 2021, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Peterborough 34% | Draw 36% | Bournemouth 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 44% | xG Peterborough 1.06 / Bournemouth 0.98 • Poisson strength factors: Peterborough attack 1.174 / def 1.046 | Bournemouth attack 0.792 / def 0.872 | league avg home 1.040 / away 1.184 • Poisson stance: Draw (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.06
Peterborough xG
Expected Goals
0.98
Bournemouth xG
44%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Peterborough vs Bournemouth kick off?
Peterborough vs Bournemouth kicked off at 19:45 on Wednesday 29 September 2021 at Weston Homes Stadium.
What was the final score in Peterborough vs Bournemouth?
Peterborough 0 - 0 Bournemouth.
Where is Peterborough vs Bournemouth being played?
The match is being played at Weston Homes Stadium.
What competition is Peterborough vs Bournemouth part of?
Peterborough vs Bournemouth is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Peterborough vs Bournemouth?
Our statistical model gives Peterborough a 34% chance of winning, Bournemouth a 30% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Peterborough vs Bournemouth?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Peterborough and Bournemouth will score (BTTS).
Will Peterborough vs Bournemouth have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Peterborough and Bournemouth?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Peterborough and Bournemouth in?
Peterborough (all comps): 2W-1D-6L in 9 | 0.78 PPG | GF 1.11 / GA 2.22 | L5 L-L-L-W-L. Bournemouth (all comps): 6W-3D-0L in 9 | 2.33 PPG | GF 1.78 / GA 0.78 | L5 D-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Peterborough's attack at 1.17x the league average against Bournemouth's defence at 0.87x — combine the two and it projects 1.06 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Bournemouth's attack versus Peterborough's defence, projects 0.98 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 9/9 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (14.7%), 1-0 (12.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
34%
2.95
36%
2.74
30%
3.38
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
0 – 0
12.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.06
Peterborough xG
Total xG
2.05
0.98
Bournemouth xG
2.95
34%
Home win
2.74
36%
Draw
3.38
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.27
56%
BTTS No
1.79
Clean Sheet
37%
2.67
34%
2.90
Win to Nil
13%
7.86
10%
9.80
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.9 | 12.7 | 6.2 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.8 | 13.5 | 6.6 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 7.2 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 2.6 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Peterborough vs Bournemouth?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.3%.
How many goals are Peterborough and Bournemouth expected to score?
The model projects 1.06 expected goals for Peterborough and 0.98 for Bournemouth, a combined total of 2.05.
How confident is the prediction model for Peterborough vs Bournemouth?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Peterborough's recent record stands at 2W 1D 6L from 9 games, a 0.78 PPG return, with L-L-L-W-L in the last five. The sample for Peterborough is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Bournemouth, meanwhile, have gone 6W 3D 0L across 9 games — 2.33 PPG, with D-W-W-W-W in their last five. The sample for Bournemouth is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Bournemouth by 1.55 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Peterborough heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Peterborough have managed 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — 1.75 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 0.78 PPG overall — Peterborough are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Bournemouth's away record stands at 3W 1D 0L across 4 trips, a 2.50 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bournemouth come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Peterborough are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 2.22 conceded per game recently; Bournemouth are on 1.78 scored and 0.78 conceded.
Defensively: Bournemouth in 44% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 9 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Peterborough
Blended
Bournemouth
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Peterborough and Bournemouth in coming into this match?
Peterborough have gone 2W 1D 6L in their last 9 games (0.78 PPG), while Bournemouth have gone 6W 3D 0L in their last 9 (2.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Peterborough at home or Bournemouth away?
Bournemouth's away record (2.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Peterborough at home: 1.75 PPG; Bournemouth away: 2.50 PPG.
Have Peterborough or Bournemouth been keeping clean sheets recently?
Peterborough have kept a clean sheet in 11% of their recent games, Bournemouth in 44%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Peterborough and Bournemouth runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. It has been a while since the last meeting — 8 March 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Peterborough
2
Draws
0
Bournemouth
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Peterborough and Bournemouth?
From 2 meetings on record, Peterborough have won 0, Bournemouth have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Peterborough and Bournemouth last play each other?
They last met on 8 March 2022, when Bournemouth 1-1 Peterborough.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Peterborough tend to start slowly — only 25% of their games have a goal by half-time. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Bournemouth tend to start slowly — only 25% of their games have a goal by half-time. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Peterborough 50%, Bournemouth 25% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 75% (Peterborough) and 25% (Bournemouth).
On the defensive side: Bournemouth in 75%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Peterborough home games / Bournemouth away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Peterborough play Bournemouth?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Peterborough's recent matches and 25% of Bournemouth's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Peterborough vs Bournemouth usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 75% of Peterborough's recent games and 25% of Bournemouth's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Peterborough and Bournemouth tend to score early?
Peterborough have had a goal before half-time in 25% of their recent matches, Bournemouth in 25% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Peterborough's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Weston Homes Stadium, Regular Season - 10, as Peterborough and Bournemouth drew 0-0 in the Championship. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Peterborough 1.06 xG and Bournemouth 0.98 xG, a combined 2.05. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Peterborough fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Bournemouth landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Peterborough attack 1.17 / defence 1.05 against Bournemouth attack 0.79 / defence 0.87, drawn from 9/9 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Peterborough 34% | Draw 36% | Bournemouth 30%, with the draw its most likely call at 36%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 64% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 72% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Peterborough 78%, Bournemouth 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Peterborough's trading profile (9 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 44% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Bournemouth's trading profile (9 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Bournemouth arrived the stronger side — 2.33 PPG against 0.78. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Peterborough (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.75 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Bournemouth (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.25 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.