Peterborough 0-0 Barnsley – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Peterborough at 54%, yet other data sources diverge — this Peterborough vs Barnsley fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Championship clash, Regular Season - 20 as Peterborough welcome Barnsley to Weston Homes Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 27 November 2021 at 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Championship games this season, Peterborough have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — a 0.80 PPG return. Last five: L D L L L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Peterborough, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Weston Homes Stadium, Peterborough have gone 3W 3D 3L this season (9 games, 1.33 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.11 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 56% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.33 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Peterborough are significantly better at Weston Homes Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Barnsley stand at 1W 0D 9L from 10 Championship matches — 0.30 PPG. Last five: L W L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. This season is still relatively young for Barnsley, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Championship this season, Barnsley have posted 0W 3D 6L from 9 away outings — 0.33 PPG. Away from home they average 0.67 goals scored and 1.89 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 56% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
On current form, Peterborough have the edge — a 0.50 PPG advantage (0.80 vs 0.30) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
In-Play Data
Peterborough trading profile (19 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 22% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 70% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); they fail to score in 53% of games.
Barnsley trading profile (19 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they fail to score in 47% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Peterborough 42% versus Barnsley 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Peterborough 63% | Barnsley 37%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Peterborough 1.55 xG and Barnsley 0.78 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Peterborough attack 0.959 / defence 1.097 | Barnsley attack 0.674 / defence 1.564. League average goals — home 1.035 / away 1.055. Barnsley bring a strong defensive rating of 1.564 — this is suppressing Peterborough's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 19 Peterborough games / 19 Barnsley games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Peterborough 54% | Draw 29% | Barnsley 17%. Fair-value odds: Peterborough 1.85 | Draw 3.45 | Barnsley 5.88. Peterborough hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.33. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.33 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Peterborough as the most likely outcome at 54% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Peterborough offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.33 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 41% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 45% on No. Form rates are neutral: Peterborough 56% | Barnsley 56%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Peterborough vs Barnsley | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Weston Homes Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 27 Nov 2021, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Peterborough 54% | Draw 29% | Barnsley 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 45% | xG Peterborough 1.55 / Barnsley 0.78 • Poisson strength factors: Peterborough attack 0.959 / def 1.097 | Barnsley attack 0.674 / def 1.564 | league avg home 1.035 / away 1.055 • Poisson stance: Peterborough (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.55
Peterborough xG
Expected Goals
0.78
Barnsley xG
45%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Peterborough vs Barnsley kick off?
Peterborough vs Barnsley kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 27 November 2021 at Weston Homes Stadium.
What was the final score in Peterborough vs Barnsley?
Peterborough 0 - 0 Barnsley.
Where is Peterborough vs Barnsley being played?
The match is being played at Weston Homes Stadium.
What competition is Peterborough vs Barnsley part of?
Peterborough vs Barnsley is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Peterborough vs Barnsley?
Our statistical model gives Peterborough a 54% chance of winning, Barnsley a 17% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Peterborough the favourite.
Will both teams score in Peterborough vs Barnsley?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Peterborough and Barnsley will score (BTTS).
Will Peterborough vs Barnsley have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Peterborough and Barnsley?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Peterborough and Barnsley in?
Peterborough (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-D-L-L-L. Barnsley (all comps): 1W-0D-9L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Peterborough's attacking strength (0.96x league average) is weighed against Barnsley's defensive record (1.56x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.55. The same calculation in reverse, Barnsley's attack versus Peterborough's defence, projects 0.78 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 19/19 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 13.5%. Close behind: 1-1 (13.3%), 2-0 (11.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Peterborough Win
54%
1.86
29%
3.40
17%
5.93
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
2 – 0
11.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.55
Peterborough xG
Total xG
2.33
0.78
Barnsley xG
1.86
54%
Home win
3.40
29%
Draw
5.93
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.24
55%
BTTS No
1.81
Clean Sheet
46%
2.18
21%
4.72
Win to Nil
25%
4.06
4%
28.02
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.7 | 7.6 | 3.0 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 15.1 | 11.8 | 4.6 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.7 | 9.1 | 3.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 6.0 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.3 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Peterborough vs Barnsley?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Peterborough and Barnsley expected to score?
The model projects 1.55 expected goals for Peterborough and 0.78 for Barnsley, a combined total of 2.33.
How confident is the prediction model for Peterborough vs Barnsley?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Peterborough come into this having played 19 games, going 4W 3D 12L for 0.79 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-L-L. The sample for Peterborough is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Barnsley sit at 0.58 PPG from 19 outings (2W 5D 12L), a run that reads L-W-L-L-L across their last five. The sample for Barnsley is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Peterborough on 0.79 PPG, Barnsley on 0.58. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Peterborough's home form reads 3W 3D 3L across 9 games on their own ground, a 1.33 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 0.79 PPG overall — Peterborough are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Barnsley have taken 0.33 points per game from 9 outings (0W 3D 6L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Peterborough come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Peterborough are averaging 0.89 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; Barnsley are on 0.68 scored and 1.63 conceded.
Last 19 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Peterborough
Blended
Barnsley
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Peterborough and Barnsley in coming into this match?
Peterborough have gone 4W 3D 12L in their last 19 games (0.79 PPG), while Barnsley have gone 2W 5D 12L in their last 19 (0.58 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Peterborough at home or Barnsley away?
Peterborough's home record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Peterborough at home: 1.33 PPG; Barnsley away: 0.33 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Peterborough and Barnsley runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Championship, League One all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 17 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Barnsley have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
Peterborough's record when hosting Barnsley specifically: 0W 2D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Peterborough
3
Draws
4
Barnsley
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Peterborough and Barnsley?
From 10 meetings on record, Peterborough have won 3, Barnsley have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Peterborough and Barnsley last play each other?
They last met on 17 February 2026, when Barnsley 2-1 Peterborough.
Who has won more matches between Peterborough and Barnsley?
Barnsley have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Peterborough tend to start slowly — only 22% of their games have a goal by half-time.
Barnsley are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Peterborough 56%, Barnsley 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Peterborough) and 44% (Barnsley).
On the defensive side: Peterborough have failed to score in 33% of games; Barnsley in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Peterborough home games / Barnsley away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Peterborough play Barnsley?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Peterborough's games and 56% of Barnsley's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Peterborough vs Barnsley usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Peterborough's recent games and 44% of Barnsley's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Peterborough and Barnsley tend to score early?
Peterborough have had a goal before half-time in 22% of their recent matches, Barnsley in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Peterborough's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Peterborough and Barnsley finished level at 0-0 at Weston Homes Stadium, Regular Season - 20, in the Championship. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Peterborough 1.55 xG and Barnsley 0.78 xG, a combined 2.33. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Peterborough fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Peterborough attack 0.96 / defence 1.10 against Barnsley attack 0.67 / defence 1.56, drawn from 19/19 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Peterborough 54% | Draw 29% | Barnsley 17%, with Peterborough to win its most likely call at 54%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 70% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Peterborough 63%, Barnsley 37%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Peterborough's trading profile (19 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 53% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Barnsley's trading profile (19 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 47% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Peterborough 0.79 PPG, Barnsley 0.58 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Peterborough (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.11 average — tighter than their form line. Barnsley (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.89 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.