Oxford United 0-0 Burnley – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Oxford United at 43% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Oxford United vs Burnley encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Burnley make the trip to The Kassam Stadium to face Oxford United in Championship (matchday 7). The match kicks off on Saturday 28 September 2024 at 16:00 UK time.
Current Form
Oxford United's record over their last 10 games: 6W 1D 3L (1.90 PPG). Last five: L L W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Oxford United's home record over their last 10 home games: 7W 1D 2L (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home.
Burnley (all games): 4W 2D 4L across their last 10 — 1.40 points per game. Last five: W L D W W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.30. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Burnley's away record over their last 10 away games: 3W 3D 4L (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Form favours the hosts. Oxford United's 1.90 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of Burnley's 1.40 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Trading
Oxford United half-time and goal-timing data (last 44 games, 21 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 81% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; of the 19 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 37%; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games).
Burnley half-time and goal-timing data (last 44 games, 21 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 86% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; of the 11 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 36%; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Oxford United 59% and Burnley 61% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Oxford United 57% | Burnley 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Oxford United 1.30 xG and Burnley 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Oxford United attack 1.059 / defence 0.904 | Burnley attack 1.012 / defence 0.875. League average goals — home 1.400 / away 1.106. Data: built from Oxford United's last 6 games and Burnley's last 6.
Result probabilities: Oxford United 43% | Draw 28% | Burnley 29%. Fair-value odds: Oxford United 2.32 | Draw 3.58 | Burnley 3.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS Yes probability 46% | Total xG 2.31. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.31 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 54% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Oxford United at 43% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Oxford United if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.31 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 59% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on No. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Oxford United 40% (last 10 home games) | Burnley 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Oxford United vs Burnley | Competition: Championship, matchday 7 | Venue: The Kassam Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 28 September 2024 at 16:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Oxford United 43% | Draw 28% | Burnley 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% (Under 59%) | BTTS Yes 46% (No 54%) | xG Oxford United 1.30 / Burnley 1.01 • Poisson strength factors: Oxford United attack 1.059 / def 0.904 | Burnley attack 1.012 / def 0.875 | league avg home 1.400 / away 1.106 • Poisson stance: Oxford United (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.30
Oxford United xG
Expected Goals
1.01
Burnley xG
46%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Oxford United vs Burnley FAQs
What time does Oxford United vs Burnley kick off?
Oxford United vs Burnley kicked off at 16:00 UK time on Saturday 28 September 2024 at The Kassam Stadium.
What was the final score in Oxford United vs Burnley?
Oxford United 0 - 0 Burnley.
Where is Oxford United vs Burnley being played?
The match is being played at The Kassam Stadium.
What competition is Oxford United vs Burnley part of?
Oxford United vs Burnley is a Championship fixture (matchday 7) (England).
Who is favourite to win Oxford United vs Burnley?
Our statistical model gives Oxford United a 43% chance of winning, Burnley a 29% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Oxford United the favourite.
Will both teams score in Oxford United vs Burnley?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Oxford United and Burnley will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (54%).
Will Oxford United vs Burnley have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (59%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Oxford United's attacking strength (1.06x league average) is weighed against Burnley's defensive record (0.88x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.30. Flip it around — Burnley's attack (1.01x) against Oxford United's defence (0.90x) — and the away total comes out at 1.01.
These ratings are built from Oxford United's last 6 games and Burnley's last 6 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.6%), 1-0 (11.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Oxford United Win
43%
2.32
28%
3.58
29%
3.44
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.9%
Home win
0 – 1
10.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.30
Oxford United xG
Total xG
2.31
1.01
Burnley xG
2.32
43%
Home win
3.58
28%
Draw
3.44
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.16
54%
BTTS No
1.86
Clean Sheet
36%
2.75
27%
3.66
Win to Nil
16%
6.39
8%
12.60
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.9 | 10.1 | 5.1 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.9 | 13.0 | 6.6 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 8.5 | 4.3 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 3.7 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Oxford United vs Burnley Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Oxford United vs Burnley?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Oxford United and Burnley expected to score?
The model projects 1.30 expected goals for Oxford United and 1.01 for Burnley, a combined total of 2.31.
How confident is the prediction model for Oxford United vs Burnley?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Oxford United's recent record stands at 18W 12D 14L from 44 games, a 1.50 PPG return, with L-L-W-W-L in the last five.
Burnley, meanwhile, have gone 9W 10D 25L across 44 games — 0.84 PPG, with W-L-D-W-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Oxford United by 0.66 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Burnley heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Oxford United have managed 10W 7D 4L from their last 21 home games — 1.76 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Burnley's away record stands at 5W 4D 12L across their last 21 away games, a 0.90 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Oxford United come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Oxford United are averaging 1.59 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; Burnley are on 1.23 scored and 1.86 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Burnley in 61%.
Last 44 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Oxford United
Early Season
Burnley
Early Season
Oxford United (Home) vs Burnley (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Oxford United
Early Season
Burnley
Early Season
❓ Oxford United vs Burnley Form FAQs
What form are Oxford United and Burnley in coming into this match?
Oxford United have gone 18W 12D 14L in their last 44 games (1.50 PPG), while Burnley have gone 9W 10D 25L in their last 44 (0.84 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Oxford United at home or Burnley away?
Oxford United's home record (1.76 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Oxford United at home: 1.76 PPG; Burnley away: 0.90 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 2 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to September 2024 — a small sample, so read the trends with care. All of them came in Championship. The most recent in our data was on 4 February 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Oxford United
1
Draws
1
Burnley
Recent Meetings
❓ Oxford United vs Burnley H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Oxford United and Burnley?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, Oxford United have won 0, Burnley have won 1, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Oxford United and Burnley last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 4 February 2025: Burnley 1-0 Oxford United.
Who has won more matches between Oxford United and Burnley?
Burnley have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from the 2 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Oxford United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 52% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 54% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 67% of those situations.
Burnley are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Oxford United 57%, Burnley 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Oxford United) and 62% (Burnley). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Oxford United keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Burnley in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Oxford United home games / Burnley away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Oxford United vs Burnley Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Oxford United and Burnley matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Oxford United's games and 62% of Burnley's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Oxford United and Burnley matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 57% of Oxford United's matches and 62% of Burnley's.
Do Oxford United and Burnley matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 81% of Oxford United's recent matches and 86% of Burnley's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Oxford United's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Oxford United and Burnley finished level at 0-0 at The Kassam Stadium, Regular Season - 7, in the Championship. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Oxford United 1.30 xG and Burnley 1.01 xG, a combined 2.31. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Oxford United fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Burnley landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Oxford United attack 1.06 / defence 0.90 against Burnley attack 1.01 / defence 0.88, drawn from 6/6 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Oxford United 43% | Draw 28% | Burnley 29%, with Oxford United to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 67% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Oxford United 57%, Burnley 59%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Oxford United's trading profile (44 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.
Burnley's trading profile (44 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Oxford United arrived the stronger side — 1.50 PPG against 0.84. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Oxford United (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.86 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Burnley (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.24 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.71 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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