Nottingham Forest 2-1 Hull City – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 36% as Nottingham Forest take on Hull City.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Nottingham Forest host Hull City at The City Ground in Championship, Regular Season - 23. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 18 December 2021 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Nottingham Forest stand at 4W 5D 1L from 10 Championship matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D D D W W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Nottingham Forest, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Nottingham Forest's form when playing at home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 games at The City Ground this term (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.20 lags behind their overall 1.70 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at The City Ground this season.
Across all Championship games this season, Hull City have recorded 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W W W D D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Hull City, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Hull City's away record: 2W 2D 6L from 10 road trips in Championship this season (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Nottingham Forest at 1.70 PPG versus Hull City's 1.40. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
In-Play Profile
Nottingham Forest in-play tendencies (22 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).
Hull City in-play tendencies (22 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 18% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 9% of games (away games); they fail to score in 50% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Nottingham Forest 59% versus Hull City 32%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Nottingham Forest 50% | Hull City 27%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Nottingham Forest 0.95 xG and Hull City 0.84 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nottingham Forest attack 0.895 / defence 1.171 | Hull City attack 0.659 / defence 1.068. League average goals — home 0.998 / away 1.085. Data: 22 Nottingham Forest games / 22 Hull City games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Nottingham Forest 35% | Draw 36% | Hull City 29%. Fair-value odds: Nottingham Forest 2.86 | Draw 2.78 | Hull City 3.45. The draw (36%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 27% | BTTS probability 37% | Total xG 1.79. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 73% probability — total xG of 1.79 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 37% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 36% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 35% and away win at 29% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.79 combined xG gives a 27% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 37% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Nottingham Forest 50% | Hull City 10% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Nottingham Forest vs Hull City | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: The City Ground • Kick-off: Saturday 18 Dec 2021, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Nottingham Forest 35% | Draw 36% | Hull City 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 27% | BTTS 37% | xG Nottingham Forest 0.95 / Hull City 0.84 • Poisson strength factors: Nottingham Forest attack 0.895 / def 1.171 | Hull City attack 0.659 / def 1.068 | league avg home 0.998 / away 1.085 • Poisson stance: Draw (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.95
Nottingham Forest xG
Expected Goals
0.84
Hull City xG
37%
BTTS
55%
Over 1.5
27%
Over 2.5
11%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Nottingham Forest vs Hull City kick off?
Nottingham Forest vs Hull City kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 18 December 2021 at The City Ground.
What was the final score in Nottingham Forest vs Hull City?
Nottingham Forest 2 - 1 Hull City.
Where is Nottingham Forest vs Hull City being played?
The match is being played at The City Ground.
What competition is Nottingham Forest vs Hull City part of?
Nottingham Forest vs Hull City is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Nottingham Forest vs Hull City?
Our statistical model gives Nottingham Forest a 35% chance of winning, Hull City a 29% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Nottingham Forest vs Hull City?
Our model estimates a 37% probability that both Nottingham Forest and Hull City will score (BTTS).
Will Nottingham Forest vs Hull City have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 27%.
What is the head-to-head record between Nottingham Forest and Hull City?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Nottingham Forest and Hull City in?
Nottingham Forest (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-D-D-W-W. Hull City (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Nottingham Forest's attack at 0.90x the league average against Hull City's defence at 1.07x — combine the two and it projects 0.95 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Hull City's attack versus Nottingham Forest's defence, projects 0.84 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 22/22 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 18.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (15.0%), 1-0 (14.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 48% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
35%
2.86
36%
2.75
29%
3.50
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
16.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
15.9%
Home win
0 – 1
14.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.95
Nottingham Forest xG
Total xG
1.79
0.84
Hull City xG
2.86
35%
Home win
2.75
36%
Draw
3.50
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
53%
Over 1.5
1.89
47%
Under 1.5
2.13
27%
Over 2.5
3.70
73%
Under 2.5
1.37
11%
Over 3.5
9.09
89%
Under 3.5
1.12
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
37%
BTTS Yes
2.73
63%
BTTS No
1.58
Clean Sheet
43%
2.31
39%
2.60
Win to Nil
15%
6.59
11%
9.07
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16.7 | 14.0 | 5.8 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.9 | 13.3 | 5.6 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 6.4 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.4 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Nottingham Forest vs Hull City?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 18.4%.
How many goals are Nottingham Forest and Hull City expected to score?
The model projects 0.95 expected goals for Nottingham Forest and 0.84 for Hull City, a combined total of 1.79.
How confident is the prediction model for Nottingham Forest vs Hull City?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 22 outings, Nottingham Forest have picked up 1.41 PPG on a 8W 7D 7L record — D-D-D-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Nottingham Forest is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Hull City's form line: 6W 5D 11L from 22 games, 1.05 PPG, last five W-W-W-D-D. The sample for Hull City is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Nottingham Forest on 1.41 PPG, Hull City on 1.05. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Nottingham Forest have posted 1.09 PPG from 11 outings (3W 3D 5L).
On the road, Hull City have gone 3W 2D 6L from 11 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Nottingham Forest are averaging 1.36 goals scored and 1.09 conceded per game recently; Hull City are on 0.86 scored and 1.18 conceded.
Last 22 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Nottingham Forest
Blended
Hull City
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Nottingham Forest and Hull City in coming into this match?
Nottingham Forest have gone 8W 7D 7L in their last 22 games (1.41 PPG), while Hull City have gone 6W 5D 11L in their last 22 (1.05 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Nottingham Forest at home or Hull City away?
Nottingham Forest's home record (1.09 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Nottingham Forest at home: 1.09 PPG; Hull City away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. It has been a while since the last meeting — 7 May 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Nottingham Forest
1
Draws
0
Hull City
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Nottingham Forest and Hull City?
From 2 meetings on record, Nottingham Forest have won 1, Hull City have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Nottingham Forest and Hull City last play each other?
They last met on 7 May 2022, when Hull City 1-1 Nottingham Forest.
Who has won more matches between Nottingham Forest and Hull City?
Nottingham Forest have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Nottingham Forest are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Hull City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Nottingham Forest 54%, Hull City 18% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 54% for Nottingham Forest and 9% for Hull City.
On the defensive side: Nottingham Forest have failed to score in 27% of games; Hull City in 64%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Nottingham Forest home games / Hull City away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Nottingham Forest play Hull City?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Nottingham Forest's recent matches and 18% of Hull City's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Nottingham Forest vs Hull City usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Nottingham Forest's recent games and 9% of Hull City's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Nottingham Forest and Hull City tend to score early?
Nottingham Forest have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Hull City in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Nottingham Forest edge out Hull City 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Nottingham Forest beat Hull City 2-1 at The City Ground, Regular Season - 23, in the Championship. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Nottingham Forest 0.95 xG and Hull City 0.84 xG, a combined 1.79. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Nottingham Forest beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nottingham Forest attack 0.90 / defence 1.17 against Hull City attack 0.66 / defence 1.07, drawn from 22/22 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Nottingham Forest 35% | Draw 36% | Hull City 29%, with the draw its most likely call at 36%. The actual Nottingham Forest win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 27%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 55% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nottingham Forest 50%, Hull City 27%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Nottingham Forest's trading profile (22 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Hull City's trading profile (22 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 32% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Nottingham Forest 1.41 PPG, Hull City 1.05 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Nottingham Forest win broke the near-deadlock. Nottingham Forest (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.09 average — above their attacking norm. Hull City (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.09 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.