Millwall 1-3 Hull City – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Millwall at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Millwall vs Hull City fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Millwall and Hull City meet at The Den in Championship, Regular Season - 21. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 13 December 2025 at 15:00 UTC.
Current Form
Millwall's overall Championship record this term: 5W 3D 2L from 10 games (1.80 PPG). Last five: L W W W D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Millwall, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Millwall's home record at The Den: 6W 1D 3L from 10 Championship appearances (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at The Den. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Hull City (all games): 5W 1D 4L across 10 Championship outings this term — 1.60 points per game. Last five: L L W L W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.60. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Hull City, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Hull City have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.80 vs 1.60 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head ledger leans to Hull City, who have claimed 3 wins from 6 meetings compared to 0 for the hosts, with 3 draws.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 6 previous contests averaged 1.2 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 18 Jan 2025, ended 0–1 with Hull City winning.
It is worth noting that Hull City have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 3 wins from 6 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading Data
Millwall goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (66 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 31% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (home games).
Hull City goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (66 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Millwall 44% versus Hull City 56%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Millwall 35% | Hull City 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Millwall 1.43 xG and Hull City 1.31 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Millwall attack 0.953 / defence 0.900 | Hull City attack 1.206 / defence 1.086. League average goals — home 1.378 / away 1.204. Hull City have an above-average attack strength of 1.206 — the away xG of 1.31 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 66 Millwall games / 66 Hull City games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Millwall 39% | Draw 27% | Hull City 34%. Fair-value odds: Millwall 2.56 | Draw 3.70 | Hull City 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.73. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.73 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Millwall are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Millwall if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.73 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Over 2.5 — marginal — conflicting signals, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.2 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates are neutral: Millwall 20% | Hull City 80%.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Millwall vs Hull City | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: The Den • Kick-off: Saturday 13 Dec 2025, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Millwall 39% | Draw 27% | Hull City 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 56% | xG Millwall 1.43 / Hull City 1.31 • Poisson strength factors: Millwall attack 0.953 / def 0.900 | Hull City attack 1.206 / def 1.086 | league avg home 1.378 / away 1.204 • Poisson stance: Millwall (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.43
Millwall xG
Expected Goals
1.31
Hull City xG
56%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Millwall vs Hull City kick off?
Millwall vs Hull City kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 13 December 2025 at The Den.
What was the final score in Millwall vs Hull City?
Millwall 1 - 3 Hull City.
Where is Millwall vs Hull City being played?
The match is being played at The Den.
What competition is Millwall vs Hull City part of?
Millwall vs Hull City is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Millwall vs Hull City?
Our statistical model gives Millwall a 39% chance of winning, Hull City a 34% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Millwall the favourite.
Will both teams score in Millwall vs Hull City?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Millwall and Hull City will score (BTTS).
Will Millwall vs Hull City have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Millwall and Hull City?
Record (6 meetings): Millwall 0W | Draws 3 | Hull City 3W.
What form are Millwall and Hull City in?
Millwall (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-W-W-D. Hull City (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Millwall's attack rating (0.95) and Hull City's defence rating (1.09), the model arrives at 1.43 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Hull City's attack (1.21x) against Millwall's defence (0.90x) — and the away total comes out at 1.31.
These ratings are built from 66/66 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.6%), 0-0 (8.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Millwall Win
39%
2.54
27%
3.75
34%
2.95
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.3%
Home win
2 – 1
8.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.43
Millwall xG
Total xG
2.73
1.31
Hull City xG
2.54
39%
Home win
3.75
27%
Draw
2.95
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.27
Clean Sheet
27%
3.70
24%
4.16
Win to Nil
11%
9.39
8%
12.26
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 8.5 | 5.6 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 12.1 | 7.9 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 8.6 | 5.6 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 4.1 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Millwall vs Hull City?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Millwall and Hull City expected to score?
The model projects 1.43 expected goals for Millwall and 1.31 for Hull City, a combined total of 2.73.
How confident is the prediction model for Millwall vs Hull City?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Millwall's recent record stands at 28W 17D 21L from 66 games, a 1.53 PPG return, with L-W-W-W-D in the last five. The sample for Millwall is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Hull City, meanwhile, have gone 21W 17D 28L across 66 games — 1.21 PPG, with L-L-W-L-W in their last five. The sample for Hull City is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.53 PPG for Millwall against 1.21 for Hull City. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Millwall have managed 18W 5D 9L from 32 games — 1.84 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Hull City's away record stands at 10W 7D 15L across 32 trips, a 1.16 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Millwall come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Millwall are averaging 1.08 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per game recently; Hull City are on 1.17 scored and 1.33 conceded.
Last 66 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Millwall
Blended
Hull City
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Millwall and Hull City in coming into this match?
Millwall have gone 28W 17D 21L in their last 66 games (1.53 PPG), while Hull City have gone 21W 17D 28L in their last 66 (1.21 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Millwall at home or Hull City away?
Millwall's home record (1.84 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Millwall at home: 1.84 PPG; Hull City away: 1.16 PPG.
Have Millwall or Hull City been keeping clean sheets recently?
Millwall have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Hull City in 17%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since November 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. They last met on 11 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Millwall have gone 0W 2D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Hull City — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Millwall
4
Draws
5
Hull City
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Millwall and Hull City?
From 10 meetings on record, Millwall have won 1, Hull City have won 5, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Millwall and Hull City last play each other?
They last met on 11 May 2026, when Millwall 0-2 Hull City.
Who has won more matches between Millwall and Hull City?
Hull City have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Millwall see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time.
Hull City see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Millwall 31%, Hull City 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 31% (Millwall) and 41% (Hull City).
On the defensive side: Millwall keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches; Millwall have failed to score in 28% of games; Hull City in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Millwall home games / Hull City away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Millwall play Hull City?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 31% of Millwall's recent matches and 50% of Hull City's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Millwall vs Hull City usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 31% of Millwall's recent games and 41% of Hull City's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Hull City cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Millwall.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hull City beat Millwall 1-3 at The Den, Regular Season - 21, in the Championship. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Millwall 1.43 xG and Hull City 1.31 xG, a combined 2.73. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Hull City outscored their 1.31 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Millwall attack 0.95 / defence 0.90 against Hull City attack 1.21 / defence 1.09, drawn from 66/66 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Millwall 39% | Draw 27% | Hull City 34%, with Millwall to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Hull City win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 29% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Millwall 35%, Hull City 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Millwall's trading profile (66 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Hull City's trading profile (66 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Millwall 1.53 PPG, Hull City 1.21 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Hull City win broke the near-deadlock. Millwall (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 0.88 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Hull City (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.09 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.