Middlesbrough 1-0 Sunderland – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Middlesbrough at 43%, yet in-form Sunderland provide a compelling counter-argument — this Middlesbrough vs Sunderland fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Riverside Stadium plays host to Middlesbrough versus Sunderland in Championship, Regular Season - 8. Kick-off: Monday 5 September 2022 at 20:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Middlesbrough have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Championship outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: D D L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Middlesbrough have played only a handful of Championship games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Middlesbrough's form when playing at home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 games at Riverside Stadium this term (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Middlesbrough are significantly better at Riverside Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Sunderland (all games): 5W 3D 2L across 10 Championship outings this term — 1.80 points per game. Last five: D L W L W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.90. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Sunderland have played only a handful of Championship games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Sunderland have gone 5W 4D 1L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
Sunderland arrive in superior form — a 0.60 PPG advantage (1.80 vs 1.20) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Trading Data
Middlesbrough goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (53 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games).
Sunderland goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (53 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Middlesbrough 53% versus Sunderland 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Middlesbrough 43% | Sunderland 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Middlesbrough 1.49 xG and Sunderland 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Middlesbrough attack 1.109 / defence 1.052 | Sunderland attack 1.146 / defence 1.006. League average goals — home 1.336 / away 1.038. Data: 53 Middlesbrough games / 7 Sunderland games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Middlesbrough 43% | Draw 25% | Sunderland 32%. Fair-value odds: Middlesbrough 2.33 | Draw 4.00 | Sunderland 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.74. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.74 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Middlesbrough as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Sunderland (1.80 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Middlesbrough if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.74 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 52% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Middlesbrough 60% | Sunderland 40%.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Middlesbrough vs Sunderland | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Riverside Stadium • Kick-off: Monday 5 Sep 2022, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Middlesbrough 43% | Draw 25% | Sunderland 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 55% | xG Middlesbrough 1.49 / Sunderland 1.25 • Poisson strength factors: Middlesbrough attack 1.109 / def 1.052 | Sunderland attack 1.146 / def 1.006 | league avg home 1.336 / away 1.038 • Poisson stance: Middlesbrough (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.49
Middlesbrough xG
Expected Goals
1.25
Sunderland xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Middlesbrough vs Sunderland kick off?
Middlesbrough vs Sunderland kicked off at 20:00 on Monday 5 September 2022 at Riverside Stadium.
What was the final score in Middlesbrough vs Sunderland?
Middlesbrough 1 - 0 Sunderland.
Where is Middlesbrough vs Sunderland being played?
The match is being played at Riverside Stadium.
What competition is Middlesbrough vs Sunderland part of?
Middlesbrough vs Sunderland is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Middlesbrough vs Sunderland?
Our statistical model gives Middlesbrough a 43% chance of winning, Sunderland a 32% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Middlesbrough the favourite.
Will both teams score in Middlesbrough vs Sunderland?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Middlesbrough and Sunderland will score (BTTS).
Will Middlesbrough vs Sunderland have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Middlesbrough and Sunderland?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Middlesbrough and Sunderland in?
Middlesbrough (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-D-L-W-L. Sunderland (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Middlesbrough's attack at 1.11x the league average against Sunderland's defence at 1.01x — combine the two and it projects 1.49 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Sunderland's attack (1.15x) against Middlesbrough's defence (1.05x) — and the away total comes out at 1.25.
These ratings are built from 53/7 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.0%), 1-0 (8.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Middlesbrough Win
43%
2.34
25%
3.94
32%
3.14
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.6%
Home win
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.49
Middlesbrough xG
Total xG
2.74
1.25
Sunderland xG
2.34
43%
Home win
3.94
25%
Draw
3.14
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.24
Clean Sheet
29%
3.50
23%
4.44
Win to Nil
12%
8.18
7%
13.94
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 8.1 | 5.0 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.6 | 12.0 | 7.5 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 9.0 | 5.6 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 4.5 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Middlesbrough vs Sunderland?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Middlesbrough and Sunderland expected to score?
The model projects 1.49 expected goals for Middlesbrough and 1.25 for Sunderland, a combined total of 2.74.
How confident is the prediction model for Middlesbrough vs Sunderland?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 53 outings, Middlesbrough have picked up 1.43 PPG on a 21W 13D 19L record — D-D-L-W-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Middlesbrough, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Sunderland's form line: 27W 15D 11L from 53 games, 1.81 PPG, last five D-L-W-L-W. It's still early in the season for Sunderland, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.43 PPG for Middlesbrough against 1.81 for Sunderland. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Middlesbrough have posted 1.84 PPG from 25 outings (14W 4D 7L). That's noticeably better than their 1.43 PPG overall — Middlesbrough are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Sunderland have gone 9W 10D 6L from 25 away games — 1.48 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Middlesbrough are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game recently; Sunderland are on 1.70 scored and 1.11 conceded.
Defensively: Sunderland in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 53 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Middlesbrough
Early Season
Sunderland
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Middlesbrough and Sunderland in coming into this match?
Middlesbrough have gone 21W 13D 19L in their last 53 games (1.43 PPG), while Sunderland have gone 27W 15D 11L in their last 53 (1.81 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Middlesbrough at home or Sunderland away?
Middlesbrough's home record (1.84 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Middlesbrough at home: 1.84 PPG; Sunderland away: 1.48 PPG.
Have Middlesbrough or Sunderland been keeping clean sheets recently?
Middlesbrough have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Sunderland in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. It has been a while since the last meeting — 3 February 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Sunderland go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Middlesbrough won 0-4 on 7 Oct 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Middlesbrough have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Sunderland — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Middlesbrough
1
Draws
3
Sunderland
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Middlesbrough and Sunderland?
From 6 meetings on record, Middlesbrough have won 2, Sunderland have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Middlesbrough and Sunderland last play each other?
They last met on 3 February 2025, when Middlesbrough 2-3 Sunderland.
Who has won more matches between Middlesbrough and Sunderland?
Sunderland have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Middlesbrough are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 52% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Sunderland are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Middlesbrough 52%, Sunderland 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Middlesbrough) and 60% (Sunderland).
On the defensive side: Middlesbrough keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Sunderland in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Middlesbrough home games / Sunderland away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Middlesbrough play Sunderland?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Middlesbrough's recent matches and 56% of Sunderland's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Middlesbrough vs Sunderland usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Middlesbrough's recent games and 60% of Sunderland's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Middlesbrough and Sunderland tend to score early?
Middlesbrough have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Sunderland in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Middlesbrough edge out Sunderland 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Middlesbrough beat Sunderland 1-0 at Riverside Stadium, Regular Season - 8, in the Championship. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Middlesbrough 1.49 xG and Sunderland 1.25 xG, a combined 2.74. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Sunderland landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Middlesbrough attack 1.11 / defence 1.05 against Sunderland attack 1.15 / defence 1.01, drawn from 53/7 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Middlesbrough 43% | Draw 25% | Sunderland 32%, with Middlesbrough to win its most likely call at 43%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Middlesbrough 43%, Sunderland 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Middlesbrough's trading profile (53 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.
Sunderland's trading profile (53 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Middlesbrough 1.43 PPG, Sunderland 1.81 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Middlesbrough win broke the near-deadlock. Middlesbrough (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.96 average — tighter than their form line. Sunderland (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.36 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.